SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,265
- Like
- 62,385
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
The LOUISVILLE game
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S13, S25, S4, L46, S3, S20, L13, L25, S35 = S34. 10 possessions with a combined 659 yards to go to score.
KO: L20, L30, L27, L23, L25, L22
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
P: 45 to L14, 49 to L18, 31 to L20
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 0
FG: Good from 31
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 2
1r: 4, 5, 10(15), 7, 9, 2, 1, 4TD, 6(12), 2, 11, 12, 5, -1, 3, 8, 6TD, 5, 4, 8
Total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 5
1p: 14, I, 6(15), 55TD I 15, 25, -5s, 15, I, I, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Louisville 10
2r: 16(5), 4(3), 1(1), 9(9), 2(5), 6(5), 6(7), 3(2), 8(5), 1(6), 0
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 3
2p: 11(6), 1(5), -4s, 23(14), 13, -1, 14(6), 4(8), I, 24(25), I, 8TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 8
3r: 4(4), 5(20, 24(14), 6(25), 0, 10, 3(1), 7(5), 7(5)
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 2
3p: 5(14), -2(14), I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 30 Louisville 10
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Louisville 23
Penalties not tacked on to plays:
-5, -5, -5, -5, -5, -2, -5, -5, -10, -10, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Louisville 16
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 56 Louisville 41
Big Plays: 23 yard Shrader pass to DeVaughn Cooper and 55 yard TD run with a short pass by Sean Tucker in 1st period. 24 yard run by Garrett Shrader and Marlowe Wax stuffing Cunningham on 4th down at S2 in 2nd period. Third period interceptions by Garrett Williams and Derek McDonald. Steve Linton strip sack and fumble recovery and Cunningham forced out of bounds on 4th down to end last threat in the 4th.
When Louisville had the ball:
Drive Starts: L20, L30, L27, L14, L23, L18, L20, L25, L22 = L22. 9 possessions with a combined 701 yards to go to score.
KO: S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
P: 50 to S13, 26 to L46, 40 to S3
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 5
1r: 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 12, 2(4), 2(17), 5, 19, 0, 7, -2, 5, 3, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 9
1p: I, 45, 45, INT, 8, 8, 3,
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Louisville 12
2r: 4, 36TD, 8(15), 3, 1, 4(3), 5(2), 3(7)
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 5
2p: 7(6), 7(8), 18(8), 5914), I, -3, FUM, I, 10(7), -7s
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 8
3r: 1(1), 5(7), 3(7), 14(7), -3
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 2
3p: 7(11), 11(9), INT, 4(2), 12(4), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 5
4r: -2, 11(21)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 9
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Louisville 25
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -7, -5, -9, +5, -14 Syracuse 6 Louisville 2
Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 36 Louisville 32
Big Plays: Jawhar Jordan 28 yard KOR and Tiyon Evans 36 yard TD run in 1st, 45 yard Braden Smith to Tyler Hudson pass in 2nds, 45 yard Cunningham to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce in 3rd.
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 92 Louisville 73
Comments: 92-73 is not a totally dominant performance: this game was lagging and there for whoever wanted to take it from early in the second quarter when we scored to make it 17-7 until Derek McDonald’s interception late in the third quarter. We won because of big plays on offense and especially on defense, which kept control of the game when the offense wasn’t scoring. Of course we would have won plays by a larger margin without all the penalties. We jumped on them on first down, winning 22 of 32 plays. We were a strong 30-10 on running plays but only 14-13 on passing plays. Being 12-2 on kicking plays was another plus but maybe the bigger stat was that we had 14 such plays to their 6.
The five most similar games during the Babers Era:
2018 Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13 We won 55-42
2018 Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17 We won 51-41
2018 Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14 We won 42-21
2019 Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14 We won 55-33
2021 Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23 We won 29-9
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
The LOUISVILLE game
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S13, S25, S4, L46, S3, S20, L13, L25, S35 = S34. 10 possessions with a combined 659 yards to go to score.
KO: L20, L30, L27, L23, L25, L22
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
P: 45 to L14, 49 to L18, 31 to L20
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 0
FG: Good from 31
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 2
1r: 4, 5, 10(15), 7, 9, 2, 1, 4TD, 6(12), 2, 11, 12, 5, -1, 3, 8, 6TD, 5, 4, 8
Total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 5
1p: 14, I, 6(15), 55TD I 15, 25, -5s, 15, I, I, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Louisville 10
2r: 16(5), 4(3), 1(1), 9(9), 2(5), 6(5), 6(7), 3(2), 8(5), 1(6), 0
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 3
2p: 11(6), 1(5), -4s, 23(14), 13, -1, 14(6), 4(8), I, 24(25), I, 8TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 8
3r: 4(4), 5(20, 24(14), 6(25), 0, 10, 3(1), 7(5), 7(5)
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 2
3p: 5(14), -2(14), I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 30 Louisville 10
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Louisville 23
Penalties not tacked on to plays:
-5, -5, -5, -5, -5, -2, -5, -5, -10, -10, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Louisville 16
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 56 Louisville 41
Big Plays: 23 yard Shrader pass to DeVaughn Cooper and 55 yard TD run with a short pass by Sean Tucker in 1st period. 24 yard run by Garrett Shrader and Marlowe Wax stuffing Cunningham on 4th down at S2 in 2nd period. Third period interceptions by Garrett Williams and Derek McDonald. Steve Linton strip sack and fumble recovery and Cunningham forced out of bounds on 4th down to end last threat in the 4th.
When Louisville had the ball:
Drive Starts: L20, L30, L27, L14, L23, L18, L20, L25, L22 = L22. 9 possessions with a combined 701 yards to go to score.
KO: S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
P: 50 to S13, 26 to L46, 40 to S3
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 5
1r: 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 12, 2(4), 2(17), 5, 19, 0, 7, -2, 5, 3, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 9
1p: I, 45, 45, INT, 8, 8, 3,
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Louisville 12
2r: 4, 36TD, 8(15), 3, 1, 4(3), 5(2), 3(7)
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 5
2p: 7(6), 7(8), 18(8), 5914), I, -3, FUM, I, 10(7), -7s
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 8
3r: 1(1), 5(7), 3(7), 14(7), -3
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 2
3p: 7(11), 11(9), INT, 4(2), 12(4), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 5
4r: -2, 11(21)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 9
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Louisville 25
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -7, -5, -9, +5, -14 Syracuse 6 Louisville 2
Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 36 Louisville 32
Big Plays: Jawhar Jordan 28 yard KOR and Tiyon Evans 36 yard TD run in 1st, 45 yard Braden Smith to Tyler Hudson pass in 2nds, 45 yard Cunningham to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce in 3rd.
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 92 Louisville 73
Comments: 92-73 is not a totally dominant performance: this game was lagging and there for whoever wanted to take it from early in the second quarter when we scored to make it 17-7 until Derek McDonald’s interception late in the third quarter. We won because of big plays on offense and especially on defense, which kept control of the game when the offense wasn’t scoring. Of course we would have won plays by a larger margin without all the penalties. We jumped on them on first down, winning 22 of 32 plays. We were a strong 30-10 on running plays but only 14-13 on passing plays. Being 12-2 on kicking plays was another plus but maybe the bigger stat was that we had 14 such plays to their 6.
The five most similar games during the Babers Era:
2018 Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13 We won 55-42
2018 Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17 We won 51-41
2018 Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14 We won 42-21
2019 Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14 We won 55-33
2021 Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23 We won 29-9