Winning Plays - Louisville | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays - Louisville

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.




The LOUISVILLE game

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: S25, S13, S25, S4, L46, S3, S20, L13, L25, S35 = S34. 10 possessions with a combined 659 yards to go to score.

KO: L20, L30, L27, L23, L25, L22
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
P: 45 to L14, 49 to L18, 31 to L20
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 0
FG: Good from 31
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 2

1r: 4, 5, 10(15), 7, 9, 2, 1, 4TD, 6(12), 2, 11, 12, 5, -1, 3, 8, 6TD, 5, 4, 8
Total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 5
1p: 14, I, 6(15), 55TD I 15, 25, -5s, 15, I, I, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Louisville 10
2r: 16(5), 4(3), 1(1), 9(9), 2(5), 6(5), 6(7), 3(2), 8(5), 1(6), 0
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 3
2p: 11(6), 1(5), -4s, 23(14), 13, -1, 14(6), 4(8), I, 24(25), I, 8TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 8
3r: 4(4), 5(20, 24(14), 6(25), 0, 10, 3(1), 7(5), 7(5)
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 2
3p: 5(14), -2(14), I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 30 Louisville 10
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Louisville 23

Penalties not tacked on to plays:
-5, -5, -5, -5, -5, -2, -5, -5, -10, -10, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Louisville 16

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 56 Louisville 41

Big Plays: 23 yard Shrader pass to DeVaughn Cooper and 55 yard TD run with a short pass by Sean Tucker in 1st period. 24 yard run by Garrett Shrader and Marlowe Wax stuffing Cunningham on 4th down at S2 in 2nd period. Third period interceptions by Garrett Williams and Derek McDonald. Steve Linton strip sack and fumble recovery and Cunningham forced out of bounds on 4th down to end last threat in the 4th.


When Louisville had the ball:

Drive Starts: L20, L30, L27, L14, L23, L18, L20, L25, L22 = L22. 9 possessions with a combined 701 yards to go to score.

KO: S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
P: 50 to S13, 26 to L46, 40 to S3
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 5

1r: 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 12, 2(4), 2(17), 5, 19, 0, 7, -2, 5, 3, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 9
1p: I, 45, 45, INT, 8, 8, 3,
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Louisville 12
2r: 4, 36TD, 8(15), 3, 1, 4(3), 5(2), 3(7)
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 5
2p: 7(6), 7(8), 18(8), 5914), I, -3, FUM, I, 10(7), -7s
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 8
3r: 1(1), 5(7), 3(7), 14(7), -3
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 2
3p: 7(11), 11(9), INT, 4(2), 12(4), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 5
4r: -2, 11(21)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 9
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Louisville 25

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -7, -5, -9, +5, -14 Syracuse 6 Louisville 2

Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 36 Louisville 32

Big Plays: Jawhar Jordan 28 yard KOR and Tiyon Evans 36 yard TD run in 1st, 45 yard Braden Smith to Tyler Hudson pass in 2nds, 45 yard Cunningham to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce in 3rd.

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 92 Louisville 73

Comments: 92-73 is not a totally dominant performance: this game was lagging and there for whoever wanted to take it from early in the second quarter when we scored to make it 17-7 until Derek McDonald’s interception late in the third quarter. We won because of big plays on offense and especially on defense, which kept control of the game when the offense wasn’t scoring. Of course we would have won plays by a larger margin without all the penalties. We jumped on them on first down, winning 22 of 32 plays. We were a strong 30-10 on running plays but only 14-13 on passing plays. Being 12-2 on kicking plays was another plus but maybe the bigger stat was that we had 14 such plays to their 6.

The five most similar games during the Babers Era:
2018 Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13 We won 55-42
2018 Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17 We won 51-41
2018 Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14 We won 42-21
2019 Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14 We won 55-33
2021 Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23 We won 29-9
 

SWC75

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HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28
TOTAL: Syracuse 956-1044 = -88 We’ve won 4 of 12 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 6,642 plays, (48.5%) and 25 games, (34.7%). The opposition has won 7,055 plays and 47 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 413 more plays than we have in 72 games, an average of 5.7 plays a game.

2022
Syracuse 92 Louisville 73
 

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