Winning Plays: NC State | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays: NC State

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SYR 10, SYR 29, SYR 10, SYR 33, SYR 35, SYR 29, SYR 13, SYR 11, SYR 30, SYR 25, NCS 48 SYR 25 Average 302/12 = SYR 25 with a total of 898 yards to go. We had two more possessions because of the Pick 6 and the kickoff return.

KO: NCS 23, 97TD, NCS 35, NCS 30
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 3
P: 28 to SYR 37, 30 to NCS 6, 39 to NCS 25, 33 to NCS 20, 36 to SYR 46, 40 to NCS 7(p), 52 to NCS 25
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 3
FG: Good from 45
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 6

1r: 1, 3, 6, 4, 10, 17, 2, 6, 55TD, 1, 0, -1, 31(p), 0, 0 1, 1, 0, -3
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina State 12
1p: I, -1(s), I, 11, I
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 16
2r: 2, 3(11), 3(4), 5, 20, 48TD, -2
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 3
2p: I, I, -1, -2, Interception for TD, I, I, 14, -8(5), 5(11), I
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 14
3r: 1(1), 17(14)
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 0
3p: -2(s), 16(20), -1(s), I, I, I, 6(16), 14(6), -16(s), 3(15)
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p: 7(4p)
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 North Carolina State 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, +15, -10, -5, +7, -5, -10 Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 4

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 28 North Carolina State 49

Big Plays: 55TD run, 31 run + penalty, 20 yard run, 48TD run


When North Carolina State had the ball:

Drive Starts: NCS 23, SYR 37, NCS 6, NCS 25, NCS 20, SYR 46, NCS 35, NCS 7, NCS 30, NCS 25 Average 288/10 = NCS 29 with a total of 712 yards to go.

KO: SYR 33, SYR 35, SYR 29, SYR 13, SYR 25, SYR 25
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 3
P: 42 to SYR 10, 31 to SYR 10, 35 to NCS 48
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 2
FG: Good from 37, Good from 21
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 12

1r: 3, 4, 2, 1, 3, 15TD, 3, 26(p), 1, 19, 1
Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 6
1p: 8(15), I, 13, -8(s), 49TD, I, I, 2, 26
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 10
2r: 5(7), 5(8), 8(7), 5, 1(5), 3(5), 0
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 5
2p: 7(7), I, I, 26(9), 8(18), 58(7), -10(s), 11(9), 8TD, 27(11), I
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina State 11
3r: 1(3), 13, 5
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 2
3p: 8(6), I, 9, 14TD, 15(24), 18(4), 5(9)
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 6
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 North Carolina State 13
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 North Carolina State 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 North Carolina State 27

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5, -5, -7 Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 0

Game total when North Carolina State had the ball: Syracuse 37 North Carolina State 39

Big Plays: 49 pass, 38 pick 6, 97 kickoff return, 58 pass 26 run + penalty, 26 pass

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88


Comments: Hey coach! We gave up a kick-off return for a touchdown and lost! What’s up with that?

On our last six first down runs we ‘gained’ -1 yard. We were 1-11 on second down pass plays. Including the return on the Pick 6, those 12 plays produced a net -30 yards. Ugh and double Ugh! Taken together, we were 13-30 on first and second down plays. That set us up to go 1-9 on third down pass plays for a net 20 yards, (penalties that cancelled plays not included). It’s no mystery why we lost this game: We were down -23 in total plays, (65-88) and -18 when we passed the ball, (4-24).

Our defense did make a good comeback from the Louisville game, when we were done 23-34 in defensive plays from scrimmage vs. 28-27 in this game. Again, it was the pass defense that made the difference: we went from 6-16 defending pass plays to 13-14. But we still had a few lapses: pass plays of 49, 58 and 26 yards which set up two touchdowns and a field goal. Add on the Pick 6 and the kickoff return and you have a Louisville-like score of 17-41. But it was a more physically competitive game than that.

Still it was a -23 game, (65-88). Here are the most similar games in the Dino Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 We lost 20-45
2017 Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017 Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 We lost 25-33
2017 Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 We lost 24-27
2019 Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 We lost 10-16
2019 Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22 We lost 20-27
2019 Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 We lost 17-35
2020 Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23 We lost 14-38
2020 Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28 We lost 13-16
2020 Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18 We lost 21-45
2021 Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20 We lost 14-17
2021 Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23 We lost 17-41
Big plays can make a difference in the margin of defeat but if you want to win the game, you’ve got to do better than this.
 

SWC75

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When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 261/9 = S29, 292/13 = S22, 540/14 = S39, 322/12 = S27, 498/14 = S36, 283/13 = SU22, 194/12 = SU 16, 310/11 = SU 28, 302/12 = S25 Season: 3,001/110 = S27 with 7,999 yards to go

KO: 3-3 + 2-0 + 10-0 + 4-0 + 5-1 + 5-1 + 3-0 + 4-2 + 4-0 + 1-1, 1-3 = 42-11
P: 2-0 + 4-4 + 0-1 + 5-2 + 1-5 + 1-5 + 5-2 + 3-3 + 3-2 + 0-6 + 4-3 = 28-33
FG: 2-0 + 0-1 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 = 11-4
XP: 3-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 3-1 + 3-1 + 0-1 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 = 30-4
Kicking plays total: 10-3 + 7-5 + 20-1 + 13-3 + 10-7 + 10-8 + 10-3 + 11-7 + 10-2 + 2-7 + 8-6 = 111-52

1r: 16-8 + 5-9 + 12-12 + 15-12 + 13-9 + 15-10 + 10-11 + 8-11+ 14-10 + 7-8 + 7-12 = 122-112
1p: 5-1 + 4-8 + 5-4 + 1-2 + 5-3 + 6-6 + 3-5 + 8-7 + 2-1 + 3-4 + 1-4 = 43-45
First Down Total: 21-9 + 9-17 + 17-16 + 16-14 + 18-12 + 21-16 + 13-16 + 16-18 + 11-11 + 10-12 + 8-16 = 165-157
2r: 10-4 + 3-5 + 8-5 + 13-4 + 5-9 + 15-3 + 2-3 + 10-1 + 8-5 + 7-4 + 4-3 = 85-46
2p: 4-3 + 6-5 + 6-3 + 4-3 + 1-2 + 4-4 + 4-12 + 4-9 + 2-5 + 3-5 + 1-11 = 39-62
Second Down Total: 14-7 + 9-10 + 14-8 + 17-7 + 6-11 + 19-7 + 6-15 + 14-10 + 10-10 + 10-9 + 5-14 = 124-108
3r: 6-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 3-4 + 0-2 + 4-2 + 1-1 + 6-2 + 5-2 + 3-5 + 2-0 = 32-20
3p: 2-4 + 2-11 + 3-3 + 1-5 + 2-8 + 2-5 + 5-8 + 2-6 + 1-4 + 0-6 + 1-9 = 21-69
Third Down Total: 8-4 + 3-12 + 4-4 + 4-9 + 2-10 + 6-7 + 6-9 + 8-8 + 4-6 + 3-11 + 3-9 = 53-89
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 5-4
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 3-4
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 4-0 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 1-0 = 8-8

Total on running plays: 32-12 + 10-15 + 22-18 + 31-20 + 18-22 + 34-15 + 13-16 + 27-14 + 27-17 + 17-18 + 13-15 = 244-182
Total on passing plays: 11-8 + 12-24 + 14-10 + 6-10 + 8-14 + 12-15 + 13-25 + 15-22 + 5-12 + 6-16 + 4-24 = 106-180
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-20 + 22-39 + 36-28 + 37-30 + 26-36 + 46-30 + 26-41 + 42-36 + 32-29 + 23-34 + 17-39 = 350-362

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-0 + 0-3 + 1-8 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1+ 1-3 + 0-5 + 1-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 = 9-34

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 53-23 + 29-47 + 57-37 + 51-35 + 36-43 + 56-39 + 37-47 + 53-48 + 43-35 + 27-45 + 28-49 = 470-448


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 139/8 = O17, 573/14 = 41, 391/14 = O28, 289/12 = O24, 378/13 = O29, 469/14 = O34, 436/12 = O36, 382/10 = O38, 288/10 = O29 Total: 3,345/107 = O31 with 7,355 yards to go

KO: 4-1 + 0-3 + 3-2 + 0-4 + 4-2 + 1-5 + 0-4 + 1-5 + 0-3 + 2-5 + 3-3 = 18-37
P: 1-0 + 0-6 + 5-4 + 0-5 + 2-4 + 2-3 + 3-5 + 2-2 + 3-6 + 1-2 + 1-2 = 20-39
FG: 1-3 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-2 = 3-18
XP: 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-3 + 1-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-0 + 0-5 + 0-5 = 2-30
Kicking plays total: 6-4 + 1-12 + 8-10 + 1-12 + 7-11 + 4-12 + 3-12 + 3-14 + 3-11 + 3-14 + 4=12 = 43-124

1r: 7-9 + 5-12 + 9-3 + 7-8 + 7-10 + 15-9 + 7-12 + 11-11 + 5-10 + 8-10 + 11-6 = 92-100
1p: 5-5 + 5-6 + 7-5 + 6-9 + 8-7 + 4-7 + 5-7 + 5-4 + 7-5 + 3-4 + 5-4 = 60-63
First Down Total: 12-14 + 10-18 + 16-8 + 13-17 + 15-17 + 19-16 + 12-19 + 16-15 + 12-15 + 11-14 + 16-10 = 152-163
2r: 3-9 + 6-6 + 5-1 + 3-9 + 5-4 + 7-7 + 3-9 + 8-6 + 5-9 + 2-6 + 2-5 = 49-71
2p: 5-5 + 3-9 + 7-4 + 3-4 + 6-5 + 4-8 + 10-5 + 3-3 + 8-2 + 6-4 + 5-6 = 60-55
Second Down Total: 8-14 + 9-15 + 12-5 + 6-13 + 11-9 + 11-15 + 13-14 + 11-9 + 13-11 + 8-10 + 7-11 = 109-126
3r: 2-3 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 1-5 + 5-4 + 0-4 + 2-1 + 4-2 + 4-2 + 4-2 + 1-2 = 32-29
3p: 4-3 + 7-0 + 4-4 + 5-0 + 4-2 + 8-4 + 7-5 + 1-5 + 9-3 + 2-3 + 3-4 = 54-33
Third Down Total: 6-6 + 12-3 + 8-5 + 6-5 + 9-6 + 8-8 + 9-6 + 5-7 + 13-5 + 6-5 + 4-6 = 86-62
4r: 0-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 4-7
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 7-10

Total on running plays: 12-22 + 17-24 + 18-5 + 12-22 + 17-19 + 22-20 + 12-22 + 23-19 + 15-22 + 14-19 + 15-13 = 177-207
Total on passing plays: 15-13 + 15-15 + 18-13 + 14-13 + 18-15 + 16-20 + 23-17 + 10-12 + 24-11 + 11-11 + 13-14 = 177-154
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-35 + 32-39 + 36-18 + 26-35 + 35-34 + 38-39 + 35-39 + 33-31 + 39-33 + 25-30 + 28-27 = 354-361

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 4-1 + 4-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 5-0 = 22-16

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 33-40 + 35-54 + 46-32 + 28-48 + 41-47 + 46-53 + 42-52 + 37-46 + 43-44 + 29-46 + 37-39 = 419-501

Overall game total: 86-63 + 64-101 + 103-69 + 79-83 + 79-90 + 102-92 + 79-99 + 90-94 + 86-79 + 56-91 + 65-88 = 889-949

Comments: We are +42 (470-448) when we have the ball and -82 (419-501) when our opponents have the ball. I think we are better on defense than offense but maybe it’s just better to have the ball than to not have it. Defensively, we’re pretty good on 3rd and 4th down, (especially third down passes: 54-33), but give up too much on 1st and 2nd down. We also just have 6 takeovers in 11 games after 31, 25 and 24, (total: 80), in the last three years (36 games) and are -5 for the year.

The last three games we are 15-52 when we attempt to pass. The three games before that we were 40-62.

We are now a dreadful 21-69 on third down passes. We and our opposition have gained first downs or touchdowns 54 times from 177 third down passes, (30.5%)

The opposition has won 39 of their 59 punting plays, (65%). We are just 28-33 (46%) on ours.

Conspiracy time! 34 of the 43, (79%) penalties called when we have the ball, (that were not tack-ons) have been called against us. 22 of 38 (58%) called when they had the ball have been called on them.
 

SWC75

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HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
TOTAL: Syracuse 889-949 = -60 We’ve won 4 of 11 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 6,575 plays, (48.6%) and 25 games, (35.2%). The opposition has won 6,960 plays and 46 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 385 more plays than we have in 71 games, an average of 5.4 plays a game.
 

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