Winning Plays - Notre Dame

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: S25, S47, S21, S8, S25, S26, ND42, S30, S5, S25, S33, S25, S25, S25, S25= 403/15 = S27 with 1,097 yards to go.

KO: ND25, ND34, ND25, ND25, S47 (onside attempt)
Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 2
P: 38 to ND37, 34 to ND45, 37 to ND36, 32 to ND29, 28 to S35, Blocked
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 6
FG: Good from 54
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Notre Dame 8

1r: 2, 4, 3, -1, 9, 9, 1, 0, 2, 2, 4TD, 7, 2
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 8
1p: Interception-TD, I, I, 8, -3(s), 23, 30, Interception I, 15(15), 17, I, 13TD, -7(s)
Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Notre Dame 16
2r: 21(8), -6, 3, 8(3)
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 2
2p: 7(14), 13(7), 5(11), I, -7(s), I, I, 30(2), I, I, I, 12, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 12
3r: 5(1), 3, 8(8)
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 1
3p: 11(7), I, I, -1, I, I, 13(22), -1(s), 18(5), 11(17)
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
4p: I, I
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 Notre Dame 28
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 21 Notre Dame 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, +5, -9, -5, +5 Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 3

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse Notre Dame

Big Plays: 21 run, Interception, 23 pass, 30 pass, 30 pass, (I decided to include) 54yd FG


When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: ND25, ND37, ND45, ND36, ND29, ND39, ND34, S35, BD25, ND25, ND46, S2, S47, S29 = 628/14 = ND 45 with 772 yards to go.

KO: S25, S47, S25, S30, S25, S25, S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 6
P: 38 at S8, 33 to S26, 35 to S5, 45 to S32
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 3
FG: Good from 39, Good from 31, Good from 20
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 3
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 17

1r: 5, 6, 9, 3, 6, 6, 16, 4, 6, -1, 2, 3, 14, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 2, 11TD, 2TD, 4, 28, 4(6), -1v, -1v
Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 19
1p: 12, 5, I, Interception, I, 11, 3TD
Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Notre Dame 23
2r: 4(5), 7(4), 3(1), 12(4), 3(9), 8(5), 2(6), 3(4), 3TD, 5, 7(7), 14(6), 2(8), -2, 1, 5(6), 2(8), 2(6), 0
Total: Syracuse 8 Notre Dame 12
2p: 10(13), 21(8), 37, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 15
3r: 1(1), 3(1), 1(2), -1, 4(1), 7(4), 0
Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 4
3p: I, I, 6(4), I, I, I, I, 11(6)
Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 6
4r: 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Notre Dame 36
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 9
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 30 Notre Dame 45

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -5, -5, +15 Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 1

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 36 Notre Dame 63

Big Plays: Interception-TD, 21 pass, 37 pass, Interception, Blocked Punt

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113

Comments: Physically, we got crushed in this game, losing the plays 66-113. There were very few big plays from scrimmage: Notre Dame had pass plays of 21 and 37 yards in the second quarter and we had pass plays of 23, 50 and 50 yards after Carlos Del Rio Wilson came in. More important than those plays is that Notre Dame got off 14 more plays and had 7 more first downs, (it seemed worse). They ran 36 successful running plays to our 9. We had 12 successful passing plays - out of 40. If you don’t have the personnel to stop a power running game you need a passing attack that can score as many points as they do in half the possession time, (it was 22:20-37:40 in this game), preferably more to force them out of their game plan. With an injured Shrader, we were no able to do this. We had a shot with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson but his inexperience, (more specifically the receiver’s inexperience with him), prevented the comeback that seemed possible.

-18 yards between drive starts is tough to overcome, especially when big plays were at a premium. We came into this game 95-15 when we kicked the ball and 15-8 when we punted it. We were 7-8 on kicking plays vs. ND, thanks to an 0 for 6 Golden Sombrero when we punted the ball, (or tried to).

66-113 is a minus 47 play game. These are the closest games to that margin in the Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost 0-54
2016 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 We lost 14-45
2019 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 We lost 27-58
2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 6-31
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
So a 24-41 loss is actually our best performance in a game like this. And most of the margin of defeat is the pick six and the two yard drive after the blocked punt.

 

[SWC75]

SEASON TOTALS

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 341/10 = S34, 482/12 = S40, 302/11 = S27, 424/13 = S33, 368/10 =S37, 248/8 =S31, 290/12 = S24, 403/15 = S27 TOTAL: 2,858/91 = S31 with 6,242 yards to go

KO: 4-2 + 9-0 + 6-0 + 5-1 + 8-2 + 5-0 + 3-1 + 3-2 = 43-8
P: 3-0 + 1-1 + 3-3 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 4-3 + 0-6 = 15-14
FG: 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 5-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 12-1
XP: 4-0 + 6-0 + 4-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 = 32-0
Kicking plays total: 12-2, 18-1, 14-4 + 14-1 + 17-2 + 10-1 + 10-4 + 7-8 = 102-23

1r: 15-5 + 15-10 + 9-7 + 6-15 + 16-3 + 7-9 + 7-6 + 5-8 = 80-63
1p: 7-5 + 7-4 + 7-7 + 6-7 + 11-0 + 5-7 + 7-6 + 6-8 = 56-44
First Down Total: 22-10 + 22-14 + 16-14 + 12-22 + 27-3 + 12-16 + 14-12 + 11-16 = 136-107
2r: 8-3 + 10-7 + 7-7 + 3-6 + 7-4 + 7-2 + 4-1 + 2-2 = 48-32
2p: 7-5 + 9-3 + 3-5 + 7-5 + 6-0 + 9-2 + 6-6 + 4-10 = 51-36
Second Down Total: 15-8 + 19-10 + 10-12 + 10-11 + 13-4 + 16-4 + 10-7 + 6-12 = 99-68
3r: 7-2 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 2-3 + 6-2 + 3-2 + 2-2 + 2-1 = 27-14
3p: 0-3 + 3-4 + 3-6 + 4-7 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-6 + 2-8 = 15-35
Third Down Total: 7-5 + 7-4 + 4-8 + 6-10 + 7-2 + 4-3 + 3-8 + 4-9 = 42-49
4r: 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-1
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 = 1-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 = 3-4

Total on running plays: 30-10 + 29-18 + 17-16 + 11-24 + 30-9 + 18-13 + 13-9 + 9-11 = 157-110
Total on passing plays: 14-13 + 19-11 + 14-18 + 17-19 + 18-0 + 15-10 + 14-19 + 12-28 = 123-118
Total on plays from scrimmage: 44-23 + 48-29 + 31-34 + 28-43 + 48-9 + 33-23 + 27-28 + 21-39 = 280-228

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-16 + 1-2 + 7-4 + 3-10 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-7 + 2-3 = 13-50

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 56-41 + 67-32 + 52-42 + 45-54 + 65-16 + 43-27 + 37-39 = 365-251

Comments: We’ve kicked off 51 times and punted 29 times. That’s a good trend. But now the opposition has almost caught us on our punts, (15-14). We are 235-175 on first and second down and 27-14 on third down runs, (which means they weren’t third and long). We are only 15-35 on third down passes, something that could hold us back from having a really special season.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 199/9 = L22, 269/11 = C24, 352/13 = P27, 556/14 = V40, 259/10 = W26, 229/9 = NCS 25 400/13 = C31, 628/19 = ND45 TOTAL: 2,892/98= O31 with 6,408 yards to go

KO: 0-2 + 2-1 + 2-3 + 1-3 + 1-0 + 2-2 + 0-6 + 2-6 = 10-23
P: 1-2 + 3-3 + 1-2 + 0-4 + 7-2 + 1-3 + 0-2 + 1-3 = 14-21
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-3 = 3-9
XP: 0-1 + 0-2 + 2-2 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-5 = 4-14
Kicking plays total: 1-5 + 5-6 + 6-8 + 4-9 + 8-2 + 3-8 + 1-12 + 3-17 = 31-67

1r: 7-9 + 8-8 + 8-2 + 4-9 + 8-4 + 10-6 + 9-16 + 9-19 = 63-73
1p: 4-3 + 1-1 + 14-10 + 10-6 + 1-1 + 5-4 + 7-6 + 3-4 = 45-35
First Down Total: 11-12 + 9-9 + 22-12 + 14-15 + 9-5 + 15-10 + 16-22 + 12-23 = 108-108
2r: 3-5 + 5-4 + 3-4 + 3-7 + 7-3 + 3-4 + 7-18 + 8-12 = 39-57
2p: 7-3 + 2-3 + 6-13 + 7-7 + 3-0 + 9-6 + 3-2 + 1-3 = 38-37
Second Down Total: 10-8 + 7-7 + 9-17 + 10-14 + 10-3 + 12-10 + 10-20 + 9-15 = 77-94
3r: 3-2 + 0-3 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 5-2 + 3-5 + 3-4 + 3-4 = 18-23
3p: 3-3 + 6-2 + 5-8 + 9-2 + 4-0 + 7-1 + 5-2 + 6-2 = 45-20
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-5 + 6-10 + 9-3 + 9-2 + 10-6 + 8-6 + 9-6 = 63-43
4r: 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 1-2 + 0-1 = 4-6
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 3-2
Fourth Down Total: 2-0 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-3 + 1-2 + 0-1 = 7-8

Total on running plays: 15-16 + 13-15 + 13-9 + 7-17 + 20-9 + 16-17 + 20-40 + 20-36 = 124-159
Total on passing plays: 14-9 + 10-6 + 25-31 + 27-16 + 8-1 + 22-12 + 15-10 + 10-9 = 131-94
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-25 + 23-21 + 38-40 + 34-33 + 28-10 + 38-29 + 35-50 + 30-45 = 255-253

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 6-2 + 1-0 + 3-2 + 5-3 + 2-0 + 5-1 + 4-1 + 3-1 = 29-10

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 36-32 + 29-27 + 47-50 + 43-45 + 38-12 + 46-38 + 40-63 + 36-63 = 315-330

Comments: Being 67-31 when they kick the ball vs. 23-102 when we kick the ball is a very big disadvantage for our opposition. The opposition has ‘caught’ us in average drive start at the 31 yard line. We were 84-83 against opposition running plays prior to the Clemson game. We are 40-76 since.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28
TOTAL: Syracuse 956 opponents 1044 = -88 We ‘won’ 4 of 12 games

2022
Syracuse 92 Louisville 73 = +19
Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37
Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11
Syracuse 103 Wagner 28 = +75
Syracuse 89 North Carolina State 65 = +24
Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25
Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47 We’ve ‘won’ 5 of 8 games
TOTAL: Syracuse 710 opponents 631 = +79
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 7,352 plays, (48.9%) and 30 games, (37.5%). The opposition has won 7,686 plays and 50 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 334 more plays than we have in 80 games, an average of 4.175 plays a game. (We seem to be regressing to the mean.)