Winning Plays- Wake Forest

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU22, SU32, SU23, SU29, SU6, SU25, SU21, SU14, SU25, SU19, SU36, SU24, SU6, (I don’t count OT). Average: 282 in 13 possessions = SU22 with 1,018 yards to go.

KO: WF20, WF25, WF23, WF25, WF24, WF28
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 1
P: 10 to WF34, 25 to SU31, 36 to WF19, 29 to SU42, 37 to WF31, 33 to WF29
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 5
FG: No Good from 45, Good from 38
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
XP: Good, Good, Try-No Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 8

1r: 4, 5, 7, 24, 0, 1, 7, 15, 0, 14, 2, 0, 3, 4, 14TD, 5, -1, 14, 15, -2, Fumble, 9, 6, 4, 2
Total: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 10
1p: 21, I, 24TD, 15, 7, 6, I, 29, I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Wake Forest 16
2r: 9(6), 11, 6TD, 8(4), 4(3), 2(3), 0, 1, 5, 18(7), 3(5), 1, 13, 12, 8, 25(p), 8(6), 4(12)
Total: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 3
2p: 15(5), I, 8(9), I, -7(s), I, 2(1), 28(4)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 7
3r: 7(1), 5TD, 12(11), 2(5), 8, 10(12)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 2
3p: I, I, I, 3(15), 392), 4(2), -9(s)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 7
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 34 Wake Forest 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 15
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 46 Wake Forest 30

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 56 Wake Forest 39


When Wake Forest had the ball:

Drive Starts: WF20, WF25, WF34, WF23, WF25, SU31, WF19, SU42, WF31, WF24, WF29, WF27, SU43, WF28 Average: 469 in 14 possessions = WF34 with 931 yards to go.


KO: SU22, SU29, SU25, SU14, SU25, SU24
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 5
P: 37 to SU32, 50 to SU23, 39 to SU19, 36 to SU36, 35 to SU6
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 3
FG: Good from 22, Good from 40
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2
XP: Good, Try- No Good, Try- Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 12

1r: 11, 1, 6, 1, 0, 2, 11, 2, 3, 2, 3, 4(5), -2v, 2, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 2, 0, 3
Total: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 9
1p: 42, 5, I, 6, 5, Interception, 69TD, 9, I, 11, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 16
2r: 4(9), 1(5), 9, 1(8), 6(8), 5(5), 11(7), 0, 3(8), 1(7), 3(6), 2(1), 4(6), 0
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 7
2p: I, I, 10, 46TD, I, 10(9), 7(6), I, 19, 5, 8(5), 22TD
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 15
3r: 3(1), 13(7), 1TD, 10TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 4
3p: 11(5), I, I, -7(s), 15(2), 25(23), 4(5), -12(s), I, I, 7(5), I
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
4p: 10(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 22 Wake Forest 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Wake Forest 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 38 Wake Forest 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -10, -5, -10, -15 Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 1

Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 46 Wake Forest 52

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 91

Comments: Our punting really hurt us in this game: we were -12 in average drive starts, (our 22 vs. their 34). We had 1,018 yards to go in 13 possessions to 931 yards to go for them in 14.

The easiest play to complete pass on is 1st down because the defense has to be worried about the run and the pass and most teams run on first down, (we did 25 times in 37 plays). When we completed 6 passes on first down, we gained 102 yards, (17 yards a catch) and scored a TD. Unfortunately, we also missed on 6 passes, including the last 4 in a row with the game on the line. This illustrates that our passing game, while well-supported a running game, is erratic, even in the best of circumstances.

On the other hand, we were an amazing 15-3 in second down runs, gaining 138 yards (7.7 per carry) and scoring a TD. On the tying drive at the end of regulation, Garrett Shrader alternated 1st down incompletions with second down runs of 12, 8 and 10 yards with a 15 yard penalty tacked on. The incomplete passes made it 2nd and 10 and the defense, especially that late in the game, didn’t believe Shrader would run the ball.

On 6 third down runs we gained 44 yards. On 7 third down passes, we gained 1 yard. It was similar when Wake was on offense. They gained 27 yards and scored 2 TDs on four third down runs. They gained 43 yards on a dozen third down passes.

A 15-9 record on the opposition’s first down runs is something defensive coordinators dream of. That’s 15 times they ran right at you to open a series and never got more than three yards. Overall, we averaged 6.1 yards per carry. They averaged 2.6. That’s what Nebraska did in their heyday. Yet we lost.

We ‘won’ 102 plays to 91, one of the better performances of the Dino Babers Era: +11. Similar games:
2016 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 We won 28-20
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We lost 23-30
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2018 Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13 We won 55-42
2018 Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10 We won 41-24
2018 Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14 We won 42-21
2019 Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14 We won 52-33
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
This was the biggest advantage a Babers team had in ‘winning plays’ and still lost.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 261/9 = S29, 292/13 = S22, 540/14 = S39, 322/12 = S27, 498/14 = S36, 283/13 = SU22 Season: 2,195/75 = S29 with 5,305 yards to go, 44 more than the opposition.

KO: 3-3 + 2-0 + 10-0 + 4-0 + 5-1 + 5-1 = 29-5
P: 2-0 + 4-4 + 0-1 + 5-2 + 1-5 + 1-5 = 13-17
FG: 2-0 + 0-1 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 = 7-3
XP: 3-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 3-1 + 3-1 = 21-2
Kicking plays total: 10-3 + 7-5 + 20-1 + 13-3 + 10-7 + 10-8 = 70-27

1r: 16-8 + 5-9 + 12-12 + 15-12 + 13-9 + 15-10 = 76-60
1p: 5-1 + 4-8 + 5-4 + 1-2 + 5-3 + 6-6 = 26-24
First Down Total: 21-9 + 9-17 + 17-16 + 16-14 + 18-12 + 21-16 = 102-84
2r: 10-4 + 3-5 + 8-5 + 13-4 + 5-9 + 15-3 = 54-30
2p: 4-3 + 6-5 + 6-3 + 4-3 + 1-2 + 4-4 = 25-20
Second Down Total: 14-7 + 9-10 + 14-8 + 17-7 + 6-11 + 19-7 = 79-50
3r: 6-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 3-4 + 0-2 + 4-2 = 15-10
3p: 2-4 + 2-11 + 3-3 + 1-5 + 2-8 + 2-5 = 12-36
Third Down Total: 8-4 + 3-12 + 4-4 + 4-9 + 2-10 + 6-7 = 27-46
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 = 2-2
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 0-1
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 0-0 = 2-3

Total on running plays: 32-12 + 10-15 + 22-18 + 31-20 + 18-22 + 34-15 = 147-102
Total on passing plays: 11-8 + 12-24 + 14-10 + 6-10 + 8-14 + 12-15 = 63-81
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-20 + 22-39 + 36-28 + 37-30 + 26-36 + 46-30 = 210-183

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-0 + 0-3 + 1-8 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 2-14

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 53-23 + 29-47 + 57-37 + 51-35 + 36-43 + 56-39 = 282-224


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 139/8 = O17, 573/14 = 41, 391/14 = O28, 289/12 = O24, 378/13 = O29, 469/14 = O34
Total: 2,239/75 = O30 with 5,261 yards to go, 44 less than Syracuse.

KO: 4-1 + 0-3 + 3-2 + 0-4 + 4-2 + 1-5 = 12-17
P: 1-0 + 0-6 + 5-4 + 0-5 + 2-4 + 2-3 = 10-22
FG: 1-3 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-2 = 3-9
XP: 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-3 + 1-2 = 2-13
Kicking plays total: 6-4 + 1-12 + 8-10 + 1-12 + 7-11 + 4-12 = 27-61

1r: 7-9 + 5-12 + 9-3 + 7-8 + 7-10 + 15-9 = 50-51
1p: 5-5 + 5-6 + 7-5 + 6-9 + 8-7 + 4-7 = 35-39
First Down Total: 12-14 + 10-18 + 16-8 + 13-17 + 15-17 + 19-16 = 85-90
2r: 3-9 + 6-6 + 5-1 + 3-9 + 5-4 + 7-7 = 29-36
2p: 5-5 + 3-9 + 7-4 + 3-4 + 6-5 + 4-8 = 28-35
Second Down Total: 8-14 + 9-15 + 12-5 + 6-13 + 11-9 + 11-15 = 57-71
3r: 2-3 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 1-5 + 5-4 + 0-4 = 17-20
3p: 4-3 + 7-0 + 4-4 + 5-0 + 4-2 + 8-4 = 32-13
Third Down Total: 6-6 + 12-3 + 8-5 + 6-5 + 9-6 + 8-8 = 49-33
4r: 0-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-5
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 = 1-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 = 3-7

Total on running plays: 12-22 + 17-24 + 18-5 + 12-22 + 17-19 + 22-20 = 98-112
Total on passing plays: 15-13 + 15-15 + 18-13 + 14-13 + 18-15 + 16-19 = 96-88
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-35 + 32-39 + 36-18 + 26-35 + 35-34 + 38-39 = 194-200

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 4-1 = 10-12

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 33-40 + 35-54 + 46-32 + 28-48 + 41-47 + 46-52 = 231-273

Overall game total: 86-63 + 64-101 + 103-69 + 79-83 + 79-90 + 102-91 = 513-497

Comments: We are +58 (282-224) when we have the ball and -42 (231-273) when our opponents have the ball. Defensively, we’re pretty good on 3rd and 4th down, (especially third down passes: 32-13, with one notable exception), but give up too much on 1st and 2nd down. We also just have 6 takeovers in 6 games after 31, 25 and 24, (total: 80), in the last three years (36 games) and are -1 for the year.

The only offensive play, (other than 4th down passes: the Hail Mary pic was our first one), in which we haven’t at least broken even is 3rd down passes: we are a dreadful 12-36. Everything else, we’ve been good at. We and our opposition have gained first downs or touchdowns 25 times from 96 third down passes, (26%)


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 91 = +16
TOTAL: Syracuse 513-497 = +21 We’ve won 3 of 6 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 6,199 plays, (48.8%) and 25 games, (37.9%). The opposition has won 6,508 plays and 41 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 309 more plays than we have in 66 games, an average of 4.7 plays a game.