Powellfan
Renowned lacrosse analyst
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The Orange welcome the Duke Blue Devils to the Dome for both teams ACC opener. This should be a spirited affair. The Orange have had some Dome heartbreakers this season, hopefully they turn their luck around against a team they've had some success against recently. Duke has put up video game like numbers this season on offense, and despite a one goal loss to Penn have looked pretty dominant in most of their wins. That said, this will be the first time Duke has played a top 10 opponent, and well, they are Duke and are prone to blips in performance.
To me, the biggest x-factor will be the play of Duke's freshman goalie, Patrick Jamieson. He has been really good this season, with a 62% save percentage and a GAA of just 7.8. The Duke defense recently held Richmond to just three goals and Princeton to just five. That said, he's still just a freshman, and has looked shaky on occasion (below 50% in their loss to Penn, only six saves against Loyola). This will be the freshman's first time in the Dome, and will be the best offense he's faced this year. I think it's really important for the Orange to not let Jamieson get into a groove early.
The story in both matchups last year was the Devil's dominance in the face-off department. Duke won a combined 66% of the face-offs in the two matchups, SU lost by a combined four goals (losing the first game in OT). SU has proven to be a lot better this year with Mason Kohn and Johnny Mullen. But Jake Nasso does return for Duke and he's got a 62% winning percentage this year. He has shown some weakness this year, going 15-29 against Penn and went just 10-22 against Princeton. He really dominated teams like St. Joe's, Bellarmine, Loyola and Providence to boost his average. To me this looks like a chance for the Orange to at least go even with Duke, which would be a huge improvement over the last couple of years.
Lastly, we all know the Duke offense is very good. I agree with others who say Dwan should mark O'Neil and Figuerias should be on Zawada. That leaves Kol and Caccamo to take Williams, and it shouldn't surprise you one bit to hear me say Caccamo should draw that assignment. As important as Dwan on O'Neil is, I think the game rests on Figuerias slowing down Zawada, who has the same number of points as O'Neil but has taken 44 fewer shots. He's the guy who runs the show down low for Duke, and Figuerias will need to play a really good game. The Duke midfield is solid but I think the Devils will run most of their offense through their attack.
On paper I think Duke is probably favored in a lot of areas. That said, Duke (despite the metrics) have not faced a very challenging schedule this year. The Orange will be their first big road test. It sounds obvious, but SU will need to come close to matching Duke in the face-off area, and also shoot the ball really well. Also, obviously, Mark will have to have his play from the Delaware game carry over to this one. SU always seems to play the Devils pretty closely, but they can't afford to have any glaring weaknesses this time around.
A win over Duke would be huge for Tournament reasons obviously and would take a lot of pressure off this team. A loss wouldn't be devastating, but would push the pressure further down the schedule. Win this one and it sets up the rest of the season very nicely. Duke has a top 10 RPI and it's hard not to see them win some big games further down the road. This would be a big feather in SU's cap.
To me, the biggest x-factor will be the play of Duke's freshman goalie, Patrick Jamieson. He has been really good this season, with a 62% save percentage and a GAA of just 7.8. The Duke defense recently held Richmond to just three goals and Princeton to just five. That said, he's still just a freshman, and has looked shaky on occasion (below 50% in their loss to Penn, only six saves against Loyola). This will be the freshman's first time in the Dome, and will be the best offense he's faced this year. I think it's really important for the Orange to not let Jamieson get into a groove early.
The story in both matchups last year was the Devil's dominance in the face-off department. Duke won a combined 66% of the face-offs in the two matchups, SU lost by a combined four goals (losing the first game in OT). SU has proven to be a lot better this year with Mason Kohn and Johnny Mullen. But Jake Nasso does return for Duke and he's got a 62% winning percentage this year. He has shown some weakness this year, going 15-29 against Penn and went just 10-22 against Princeton. He really dominated teams like St. Joe's, Bellarmine, Loyola and Providence to boost his average. To me this looks like a chance for the Orange to at least go even with Duke, which would be a huge improvement over the last couple of years.
Lastly, we all know the Duke offense is very good. I agree with others who say Dwan should mark O'Neil and Figuerias should be on Zawada. That leaves Kol and Caccamo to take Williams, and it shouldn't surprise you one bit to hear me say Caccamo should draw that assignment. As important as Dwan on O'Neil is, I think the game rests on Figuerias slowing down Zawada, who has the same number of points as O'Neil but has taken 44 fewer shots. He's the guy who runs the show down low for Duke, and Figuerias will need to play a really good game. The Duke midfield is solid but I think the Devils will run most of their offense through their attack.
On paper I think Duke is probably favored in a lot of areas. That said, Duke (despite the metrics) have not faced a very challenging schedule this year. The Orange will be their first big road test. It sounds obvious, but SU will need to come close to matching Duke in the face-off area, and also shoot the ball really well. Also, obviously, Mark will have to have his play from the Delaware game carry over to this one. SU always seems to play the Devils pretty closely, but they can't afford to have any glaring weaknesses this time around.
A win over Duke would be huge for Tournament reasons obviously and would take a lot of pressure off this team. A loss wouldn't be devastating, but would push the pressure further down the schedule. Win this one and it sets up the rest of the season very nicely. Duke has a top 10 RPI and it's hard not to see them win some big games further down the road. This would be a big feather in SU's cap.