12-3 Wisconsin #1 in KenPom. Huh?

[elkeed]

I thought I was pretty good at math, but this ranking completely baffles me. Somebody help me.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

It really doesn't have anything to do with actual win-loss record, it is based on expected wins based on the points scored and points allowed per possession. The expected wins would be against a generic schedule not an actual one though.

 

[Knicks411]

I will never get it; I think they are good, but I guess they have just killed some (bad) teams this year.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I will never get it; I think they are good, but I guess they have just killed some (bad) teams this year.

It is weighted based on the opponent. I don't know how exactly he does it, but I would guess the weights are 2x the Pyth.

 

[Garbs]

Wisconsin will always look good because they are very efficient on O and play good D(slow it down to limit opp possesions), but yea not sure how the #1 team can have 3 losses and 2 at home I believe

 

[DoctorBombay]

I've never really understood the fascination with theKenPom system. Its always seemed like a stat geek's best friend, but for everyone else, just a bunch of gobbley-goop!
Has anyone ever looked at his rankings at the end of each season, to see if he is ever close?

 

[orange2win]

It really doesn't have anything to do with actual win-loss record, it is based on expected wins based on the points scored and points allowed per possession. The expected wins would be against a generic schedule not an actual one though.

Based on his stats, Ken Pom says Wisconsin - from the B-10 - is the #1 team in the nation. Using only their eyes and their brains the coaches say Wisconsin is ranked No. 19 this week. That's some spread.

The #2 in Ken Pom's poll is also from the B-10 and the coaches say Ohio State is #7 in the land this week. I will assume the Ken Pom's poll is actually a measure of the team with the strongest stats in the country and thus a projection of the best. So let's see if works. Somehow I don't think Wisconsin is that good.

 

[Knicks411]

I've never really understood the fascination with theKenPom system. Its always seemed like a stat geek's best friend, but for everyone else, just a bunch of gobbley-goop!
Has anyone ever looked at his rankings at the end of each season, to see if he is ever close?

Yeah, they are usually pretty good. Not perfect, of course, nothing is.

Wisconsin seems to always be a tad overrated by Ken Pom. Sagarin has them 15, which is a pretty big spread as well.

No system is perfect; but I would take Pomeroy or Sagarin over the polls every day of the week.

 

[rrlbees]

Some people slobber over KenPom but it's no different/better than others. All he does it puts numbers into math formula's of which another person may think other models are better. Any system that right now doesn't have SU #1 and has Wisconsin #! has proven itself to be BS.

 

[Bornorange]

His rating system definitely does not do justice to the zone.

 

[BuffOrange]

I've never really understood the fascination with theKenPom system. Its always seemed like a stat geek's best friend, but for everyone else, just a bunch of gobbley-goop!
Has anyone ever looked at his rankings at the end of each season, to see if he is ever close?

To see if his rankings are ever close to what? The polls? NCAA tournament results?

 

[NKR1978]

I've never really understood the fascination with theKenPom system. Its always seemed like a stat geek's best friend, but for everyone else, just a bunch of gobbley-goop!
Has anyone ever looked at his rankings at the end of each season, to see if he is ever close?

With my ten ESPN brackets I always do a ken pom, realtime rpi and sagarin. The sagarin generally performs better. Last year was a disaster for all 3 though.

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk

 

[armory]

KenPom rankings are always awful until the year is over.

 

[Knicks411]

KenPom rankings are always awful until the year is over.

That's weird, because i don't think they generally change all that much as the year goes on. The top 5 right now is Wisconsin, Ohio State, UK, us, and UNC. I bet at least 3 of those 5 finish in the KP top 5 at the end of the year.

They have what I think is a new feature, that shows you for each team their rank at the time of each game. Last year's #1 team at the end of the year was Ohio State. They were ranked 1, 2, or 3 all year, and were #1 basically from Jan 22 on. (Were #2 for one game). Duke was in the top 4 all of last year, Kansas was top 5, etc.

 

[Czar]

The reason is because it takes into account expected win loss. (Someone explained this to me). Basically, because our points per possession for us and for our opponent our so close (there's not much of a difference) it creates the appearance of a lot of luck in our games, which hurts the ranking because it makes it look like we've played above our record (Basically, being undefeated makes it harder to be ranked higher)

 

[Smithers-Jones]

At least we are now #1 in Sagarin, which has been a rarity when we are #1 in the polls.

 

[Knicks411]

The reason is because it takes into account expected win loss. (Someone explained this to me). Basically, because our points per possession for us and for our opponent our so close (there's not much of a difference) it creates the appearance of a lot of luck in our games, which hurts the ranking because it makes it look like we've played above our record (Basically, being undefeated makes it harder to be ranked higher)

Is this true?

Our scoring margin is fantastic, there's a pretty large difference in points scored and allowed per possession for us. The easiest explanation is simply that Wisconsin has the best adjusted scoring differential, so they are #1. It isn't that simple, SU and UK are basically tied with their differential, but UK is ahead of us. (Though the margin is so slim as to be irrelevant).

UK and SU are essentially tied; and both teams are pretty far ahead of #5, and at the same time, pretty far behind #2. Our luck factor is positive, meaning we have been slightly lucky, though all that really is saying is that no team is "expected" to be undefeated after 15 games. (our luck rating is over 100th in the country, so while it is positive, it's not ridiculous. All of the undefeated teams, pretty much by definition, are positive in the luck rating. Our expected record is 14.4-.6, and we're actually 15-0, so that's where the luck rating comes in.It doesn't have anything to do with the actual rating, it is just additional information. I believe it's just the difference between the Pomeroy expected winning% and your actual win%. Basically, if we had the same efficiency numbers, but had one loss (say we lost to Florida by a point, that wouldn't move the efficiency numbers at all) our rating would be the same, but now it would say we were slightly unlucky.

 

[Smithers-Jones]

Some additional data from Sagarin re: Wisconsin. Sagarin has two rankings, ELO CHESS (only considers wins/losses) and PREDICTOR (only considers scoring margins), and both contribute to the overall ranking. There is a HUGE spread in Wisconsin's rankings in these two areas - ELO CHESS is 34 whereas PREDICTOR is 2. This is one of the biggest differentials I have ever seen, implying Wisconsin has lost very close games while destroying everyone else, which would explain the kenpom rating which is essentially PREDICTOR, more or less.

 

[zibby]

Wisconsin is STILL #2 in Pomeroy's rankings. Is quantity of cheese production a factor in his formula?

 

[Knicks411]

Wisconsin is STILL #2 in Pomeroy's rankings. Is quantity of cheese production a factor in his formula?

They were so far ahead of #3 that unless they got killed they were going to stay in the top 2.

 

[Smithers-Jones]

I see Wisconsin is ranked #326 in "Luck", which I guess implies they have lost close games without winning any (ie, are probably better than their record indicates).