2016 O vs 2015 O

[Lou_C]

i bristle at this. do you think baylor would've averaged the same yards per play if they huddled and bled the play clock?

i think it's clear that playing fast helps your offense. we were better per play this year with a horrible offensive line and our best back is 98 lbs.

for a lot of teams it's not worth it because they never think they'll be able to close the yards per play gap. but what a horrible way to live. in college football you have to have an identity and i don't want to plan on being bad forever

No, I don't think Baylor would have averaged the same yards per play if they huddled. That's part of the way this offense stomps on the neck of anyone it has an advantage over.

But I also don't think playing fast helps the offense that much by default. And it can be negative to the team. Going three and out in 40 seconds is not exactly a recipe for success. The OP's advanced metrics show a modest improvement in the offense...part of that could be pace, part could just be better offensive coaching.

Pace is mostly just a means to an end of better talent for the most part in my opinion.

 

[Millhouse]

No, I don't think Baylor would have averaged the same yards per play if they huddled. That's part of the way this offense stomps on the neck of anyone it has an advantage over.

But I also don't think playing fast helps the offense that much by default. And it can be negative to the team. Going three and out in 40 seconds is not exactly a recipe for success. The OP's advanced metrics show a modest improvement in the offense...part of that could be pace, part could just be better offensive coaching.

Pace is mostly just a means to an end of better talent for the most part in my opinion.

i agree it was only a modest improvement over 2015.

i think factories like FSU run ordinary pro-ish style schemes because they can get away with it and they think it helps their defense to practice against something that isn't too far out there

 

[Lou_C]

Except for the caveat that running a weird system might give a team an edge, talent being equal, I completely agree.

*Also, a pass heavy team will do well in the Dome, talent being equal. But your point still explains the vast majority of success that we can hope to have.

Yes, to be totally fair, this type of tempo/offense is going to get a few licks in here or there by catching a team either unprepared, or potentially exhausting them. Just like Bama got nicked by a couple tempo teams.

I shouldn't act like tempo will never win you a game in and of itself...but over the length of programs and seasons, alone it's not going to elevate a team to the next level. The athletes have to come. But hey, it's not like Dino doesn't know that.

There's more than tempo advantages to this offense as well that can't be discounted, and can create a difference. By it's nature, a fast break offense like this isn't going to have four reads, route trees with with eleven different options, complicated check downs, etc. That's a recipe for getting your best athletes on the field, and fast, and also can allow your team to play with a ton of confidence. I think these things almost play more to it's advantage than pace, especially in narrowing the gap with more talented teams...but of course it's only possible because of the tempo.

 

[Lou_C]

i agree it was only a modest improvement over 2015.

i think factories like FSU run ordinary pro-ish style schemes because they can get away with it and they think it helps their defense to practice against something that isn't too far out there

Definitely. When you should have an advantage at most positions, most offensive plays SHOULD be a win without need for surprise...just need for execution. When you've got NFL players at literally every position, like 2013, it's not stoppable, even at one of the slowest paces in the country.

And there's no doubt it's a recruiting tool...Jimbo's offensive players are well prepared for the NFL and kill it in pre-draft interviews (see QBs being overdrafted LOL).

But that said, when that execution isn't there? Recipe for keeping lesser talented opponents in the game. The complexity also keeps great talent off the field, especially at the skill positions. Even Saban has started to implement some spread and tempo...you can only be so stubborn.

 

[TheCusian]

I wouldn't underestimate 3x the reps kids get in practice too.

 

[Ish88888]

if the QBs would stop missing wide open deep throws and just hit 50% of them we score 10 more points a game. we missed 5-6 just in the last 2 games. This offense creates more easy throws we just have to make the plays. And this is ZERO rushing game to hold the safeties..

Not sure how you can get on the qbs this year , wow .

 

[TheCusian]

Not sure how you can get on the qbs this year , wow .

Huh? It's true, no?

 

[Ish88888]

Huh? It's true, no?

ED was top 5-10 in the nation before his injury and yes ZM didn't do well against ncst, but how can you get on either of these guys after the pitt game?

 

[SoBristol]

I agree. I think it takes 2 years to install his offense. I know he said a year and a half, but I'm going to hold serious judgement until year 3 ... or at least until the very end of the second year.

I still think it's interesting to analyze the stats before we get crazy excited w/ raw numbers.

I always wonder about these estimates of 18 months, 24 months, whatever. What are the necessary steps to get there? Is it mystical? Dungey and the receivers seemed to get it early in season 1; and Mahoney in his 3rd game as a sub. Etta-Tawo was in gear quickly, having showed up in August, without the benefit of Spring practice. The OL, full of underclassmen after Emerich & Palmer went down, struggled with fast starts and never could produce a running attack. With the OL, the key ingredient might be physicality, more than any other adjustment.

What does it take to install the offense in 2017? A healthy QB, an outstanding frosh RB, a replacement for AET, a new TE, and stability in the OL (with possible upgrades). A running attack in the red zone -- please.

 

[nzm136]

I always wonder about these estimates of 18 months, 24 months, whatever. What are the necessary steps to get there? Is it mystical? Dungey and the receivers seemed to get it early in season 1; and Mahoney in his 3rd game as a sub. Etta-Tawo was in gear quickly, having showed up in August, without the benefit of Spring practice. The OL, full of underclassmen after Emerich & Palmer went down, struggled with fast starts and never could produce a running attack. With the OL, the key ingredient might be physicality, more than any other adjustment.

What does it take to install the offense in 2017? A healthy QB, an outstanding frosh RB, a replacement for AET, a new TE, and stability in the OL (with possible upgrades). A running attack in the red zone -- please.

I think it's a mixture of conditioning, understanding the plays/flow, getting the right players, and gelling together/getting timing down. IMHO, you need 2-3 recruiting classes, a QB who knows where his wr's will be without looking, and WRs who know where the ball is going and what the defense will probably do.

I heard McPherson talk once, and that's pretty much how he described his relationship w/ his WR's by his SR year.

 

[SoBristol]

I think it's a mixture of conditioning, understanding the plays/flow, getting the right players, and gelling together/getting timing down. IMHO, you need 2-3 recruiting classes, a QB who knows where his wr's will be without looking, and WRs who know where the ball is going and what the defense will probably do.

I heard McPherson talk once, and that's pretty much how he described his relationship w/ his WR's by his SR year.

Fair enough -- though Dungey and Etta-Tawo & Phillips had a very good connection in year 1 of Babers. Then, you lose a couple of the receivers (Etta-Tawo & Estime), and begin to integrate replacements who show up in August. This is college football -- and I hope we don't have to have the perfect combination to start winning games.

You also want your share of juniors and seniors in both lines, the LBs, and the defensive secondary. We start to get closer to that next season.

 

[Millhouse]

ED was top 5-10 in the nation before his injury and yes ZM didn't do well against ncst, but how can you get on either of these guys after the pitt game?

Not in efficiency, not even close. He was good

 

[TheCusian]

ED was top 5-10 in the nation before his injury and yes ZM didn't do well against ncst, but how can you get on either of these guys after the pitt game?

It's not "getting on" - it's watchingthe tape and seeing missed opportunities. Something I'm 100% confident the QB coach has already done with them in a meeting.

Saying they missed throws is not saying they are bad QBs.

 

[upperdeck]

just because a pass is completed doesnt mean things worked. if you sat a game in person its crazy the number of plays that we missed. Some were bad throws. some were bad routs, some were missed reads. The Pitt game turned on an INT that should have been thrown to a different WR. What we dont know is does the system have a check in place for the QB to make that throw, did the WR see it too?

You only get so many chances to hit Home run throws. I get that they are not the easiest throws to make but the numbers have to say give your guy a chance and we fail to do that way to often. our QBs often lead the throw to the wrong place on the field so in addition to not completing the pass the margin of error goes way down. if we just get to 50/50 on those throws we add 1-2 TDs a game.

Look back at some of our biggest throws of the year and they were on under throws that AT made plays on. If you are going to miss this miss has to be made on the catchable side most of the time.. our QBs do the opposite, the deep balls get over thrown and the other throws get thrown in the wrong places.. Our slants get thrown high and our fades get thrown short.. Thats accuracy things they coaches I am sure are working through and as that gets fixed our efficiency gets better .