4th and 2, 12 points down

[liljoe]

The other thread on this was getting a little sarcastic (which I could not enjoy more, of which I was also a guilty party) on this question, but on the more serious side, here's why I didn't mind the punt..

First, USC to that point wasn't putting together long scoring drives. One of 75. Even more, they hadn't put together a decent drive from their 20 or inside it.

How did we get to within 5? A big defensive play put us in that position. How did we find ourselves 12 points down? An offensive series that left USC starting from our 22.

When 4th and 2 comes up, the defense is my hot hand at the moment. Defense is what keeps you in the game for the first half, and a big defensive play leads to one of your two touchdowns.

Sorry, but at that point in the game, it's your defense that has really stepped it up for the day.

You may disagree with the call, which is fine, but it's not something you hang a coach over.

 

[44PRIDE]

Oh bullstuff...
Our Defense was playing great and our Offense was finally clicking on all cylinders against the #2 team in the country. You are down 6 with 12 minutes left and have a chance to really send a message.

Instead, Marrone decides to completely neuter the team and punt...thus taking away any momentum we had.

Horrible decision. Exactly the kind of decision making that leads me to believe Marrone doesn't have the stones to be a head coach.

 

[ForCuseSake]

If it's the 3rd quarter and we're playing a BE team, I agree. When it's the 4th quarter and we're playing the #2 team stacked w/ NFL talent you should nut up.

 

[Millhouse]

The other thread on this was getting a little sarcastic (which I could not enjoy more, of which I was also a guilty party) on this question, but on the more serious side, here's why I didn't mind the punt..

First, USC to that point wasn't putting together long scoring drives. One of 75. Even more, they hadn't put together a decent drive from their 20 or inside it.

How did we get to within 5? A big defensive play put us in that position. How did we find ourselves 12 points down? An offensive series that left USC starting from our 22.

When 4th and 2 comes up, the defense is my hot hand at the moment. Defense is what keeps you in the game for the first half, and a big defensive play leads to one of your two touchdowns.

Sorry, but at that point in the game, it's your defense that has really stepped it up for the day.

You may disagree with the call, which is fine, but it's not something you hang a coach over.

It doesn't matter who stepped up before that. You need scores

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[OttoinGrotto]

It doesn't matter who stepped up before that. You need scores

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I'm consistently baffled by how many posters we have that fail to grasp that the unit that puts points on the board is the offense.

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[liljoe]

Oh bullstuff...
Our Defense was playing great and our Offense was finally clicking on all cylinders against the #2 team in the country. You are down 6 with 12 minutes left and have a chance to really send a message.

Instead, Marrone decides to completely neuter the team and punt...thus taking away any momentum we had.

Horrible decision. Exactly the kind of decision making that leads me to believe Marrone doesn't have the stones to be a head coach.

Huh? What game were you watching? If you're going to be overly dramatic, at least make sure you have your facts straight.

Damn, you're going to make me be a smarta$$ again...

 

[orangecuse]

Oh bullstuff...
Our Defense was playing great and our Offense was finally clicking on all cylinders against the #2 team in the country. You are down 6 with 12 minutes left and have a chance to really send a message.

Instead, Marrone decides to completely neuter the team and punt...thus taking away any momentum we had.

Horrible decision. Exactly the kind of decision making that leads me to believe Marrone doesn't have the stones to be a head coach.

While I generally agree with your sentiment, it was 28-16 when we punted on 4th and 2...so we were down 12. The series before we were down 6, but had to punt on 4th down deep in our own end. Which, set up their 30 + punt return and ensuing TD a couple of plays later.

 

[44PRIDE]

Huh? What game were you watching? If you're going to be overly dramatic, at least make sure you have your facts straight.

Damn, you're going to make me be a smarta$$ again...

While I generally agree with your sentiment, it was 28-16 when we punted on 4th and 2...so we were down 12. The series before we were down 6, but had to punt on 4th down deep in our own end. Which, set up their 30 + punt return and ensuing TD a couple of plays later.

Thanks for the clarification (sarcastic though it may be joe)... But being down 12 makes the decision all the more clear. Down 12 with 12 to go against #2? Strap up and go for it.

 

[djcon57]

How did we get to within 5? A big defensive play put us in that position. How did we find ourselves 12 points down? An offensive series that left USC starting from our 22.

Math.

Percentage chances that we convert 4th and 2 vs the chance the Heisman candidate, poss #1 pick or his 2 top 10 pick WRs made a SECOND mistake.

I agree with you if we were playing Buttgers or some other shlub at QB. We weren't.

Barkley's has thrown 2 INTs once in the past 13 games.

 

[PhatOrange]

The other thread on this was getting a little sarcastic (which I could not enjoy more, of which I was also a guilty party) on this question, but on the more serious side, here's why I didn't mind the punt..

First, USC to that point wasn't putting together long scoring drives. One of 75. Even more, they hadn't put together a decent drive from their 20 or inside it.

How did we get to within 5? A big defensive play put us in that position. How did we find ourselves 12 points down? An offensive series that left USC starting from our 22.

When 4th and 2 comes up, the defense is my hot hand at the moment. Defense is what keeps you in the game for the first half, and a big defensive play leads to one of your two touchdowns.

Sorry, but at that point in the game, it's your defense that has really stepped it up for the day.

You may disagree with the call, which is fine, but it's not something you hang a coach over.

agreed.

you should listen to his presser. he discusses his thought process behind that decision today.

he also makes an interesting comment about a wrong decision he made last week and how he learned from the mistake and it paid off this week.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm consistently baffled by how many posters we have that fail to grasp that the unit that puts points on the board is the offense.

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I think these guys are gymnastics or figure skating fans. Points are awarded to defenses by judges if they look good. Too bad that isn't how football works

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[liljoe]

Thanks for the clarification (sarcastic though it may be joe)... But being down 12 makes the decision all the more clear. Down 12 with 12 to go against #2? Strap up and go for it.

It was more than just the score. You said the offense was clicking on all cylinders. We had just gone 3 and out, giving USC great field position and a touchdown, and it wasn't like we were in the midst of a methodical drive. Nassib hit a long pass and we stalled.

Not sure what you definition of clicking on all cylinders is, but it seems like you might be setting the bar a bit low.

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

I'm consistently baffled by how many posters we have that fail to grasp that the unit that puts points on the board is the offense.

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Its not only that, but the special teams are clearly the weakest units on the team. How many in times over the last four years has Marrone tried to play field position only to have the punter shank the ball out of bounds, kick it into the endzone, or the team gives up a big return (or takes a bad penalty). If you have Jeff Feagles, fine, pin them at the five. This is another example of Marrone wanting (or expecting) the kids to play too fine. With the specials, there is no excuse since the expectations must be so minimal.

 

[44PRIDE]

It was more than just the score. You said the offense was clicking on all cylinders. We had just gone 3 and out, giving USC great field position and a touchdown, and it wasn't like we were in the midst of a methodical drive. Nassib hit a long pass and we stalled.

Not sure what you definition of clicking on all cylinders is, but it seems like you might be setting the bar a bit low.

The offense was moving the ball against USC. We were having success with the hurry up. It wasn't as if they were stopping us cold...we had success against them. The offense was clicking.

Not sure what you are looking for against the #2 team in the country. But from my point of view, the offense was doing quite well tonight.

 

[Scooch]

It took Marrone a few years to get the confidence to run a real college offense. I figure it might take him a few more to grow a set of brass ones for 4th downs.

I think looking at that huge NFL shield all day spooked him.

Hopefully we can blow out some BE teams and not have to worry about it again for a while.

 

[Upstate]

Someone said it in the chat, but by going for it there, you're not only giving yourself a chance to retain the ball, but to keep the ball out of Barkley's hands and give the D extra rest.

 

[zibby]

Was being wrong in one thread not enough for you? OK, fine. You're wrong in this thread, too.

 

[djcon57]

USC's last drive where they were stopped took 3 mins off the clock. That drive started at their 28 and went to their 43... so let's say we punt and stop them at the 35...now we get the ball back at the 9 min mark down 12, prob at our 35.

We now have to outscore them by 13 pts in 9 mins starting at our 35 and we have to stop them AGAIN just to have a shot at getting the ball to win.

 

[OrangeFoo]

Throw in the 12 yard punt as a questionable decision as well...

When playing a team with talent like USC you pretty much have to assume they will score on every drive. To your early question about odds... We averaged over 5 yards per offensive play and USC scored on 50% of their possessions... That means that we had a 25% odds of stopping them on two consecutive possessions (remember they had punted the drive before the 4-2). I would say that given our average play produced at least 5 yards a play, the odds of getting two yards was better than the odds of stopping USC twice in a row. If you want to argue my sample size is too small, USC sored 5 tds in 12 offensive possessions last week or 40% which means we had a 36% chance of stopping them on two consecutive drives.

 

[liljoe]

Was being wrong in one thread not enough for you? OK, fine. You're wrong in this thread, too.

Good one. Take a bow...

 

[liljoe]

USC's last drive where they were stopped took 3 mins off the clock. That drive started at their 28 and went to their 43... so let's say we punt and stop them at the 35...now we get the ball back at the 9 min mark down 12, prob at our 35.

We now have to outscore them by 13 pts in 9 mins starting at our 35 and we have to stop them AGAIN just to have a shot at getting the ball to win.

It's crazy, You're just making things up. You talk like football is some exact science. If it was that easy, what is the point of even playing he games?

 

[Faegan]

I would have been fine with going for it on 4th and not getting it. I'm not okay with punting and having that possession turn into a TD.

 

[suthrills]

The other thread on this was getting a little sarcastic (which I could not enjoy more, of which I was also a guilty party) on this question, but on the more serious side, here's why I didn't mind the punt..

First, USC to that point wasn't putting together long scoring drives. One of 75. Even more, they hadn't put together a decent drive from their 20 or inside it.

How did we get to within 5? A big defensive play put us in that position. How did we find ourselves 12 points down? An offensive series that left USC starting from our 22.

When 4th and 2 comes up, the defense is my hot hand at the moment. Defense is what keeps you in the game for the first half, and a big defensive play leads to one of your two touchdowns.

Sorry, but at that point in the game, it's your defense that has really stepped it up for the day.

You may disagree with the call, which is fine, but it's not something you hang a coach over.

I wouldn't necessarily say the D was the hot hand at the moment when the series before they gave up a TD by allowing a 12 yard cushion to a TE on a 3rd and 10 and then having said TE blow through 5 Syracuse players.
Granted USC had great field position but a "hot hand" D forces a Turnover or at least forces them to attempt a FG with a walk on kicker.
Factor in our horrendous ST play and the fact that USC is just loaded, DM just has to go for it.
Also, if you have so much confidence in the D, let them stop SC if we don't make a 1st down. Play to win Doug.

 

[liljoe]

When playing a team with talent like USC you pretty much have to assume they will score on every drive. To your early question about odds... We averaged over 5 yards per offensive play and USC scored on 50% of their possessions... That means that we had a 25% odds of stopping them on two consecutive possessions (remember they had punted the drive before the 4-2). I would say that given our average play produced at least 5 yards a play, the odds of getting two yards was better than the odds of stopping USC twice in a row. If you want to argue my sample size is too small, USC sored 5 tds in 12 offensive possessions last week or 40% which means we had a 36% chance of stopping them on two consecutive drives.

Forget the sample size, you're using fuzzy math. Furthermore, I'm concerned about your ability to seperate fact from fiction. Couple of the more glaring issues:

Prior to the "4-2" USC started on our 22 and scored a touchdown. No punt.

USC scored on 40% of their drives, for whatever that is worth. I think the whole argument you make is crazy to begin with, that just makes it crazy with no basis in fact.

 

[djcon57]

It's crazy, You're just making things up. You talk like football is some exact science. If it was that easy, what is the point of even playing he games?

I'm making up that USC is really, really good at offense and the Syracuse defense, that couldn't stop Northwestern when it counted, and was now going to stop USC TWICE in 12 mins? That'd be you.


I was giving the best case scenario. If you like me to not project best case scenario, I'll point to the EXACT SCIENCE that happened. An 80 yard reverse on the 1st play.