ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

Updating the 4 year avg and median attendance for all these moves:

SEC 75,932 avg and 83,874 median

B1G 62,957 avg and 56,764 median
Adding the 4 PAC schools made them worse in both.

ACC 47,004 avg and 46,371 median

B12 45,778 avg and 46,590 median
Avg went slightly up and median slightly down. Pretty much broke even.

PAC 33,524 avg and 33,383 median
That is G5 right there. Boise State, USF, and Fresno State would pretty much be pushes if added to the PAC. ECU is barely above those numbers.


When you look at median, the B1G is a lot closer to the ACC and B12 than it is to the SEC. If the ACC is raided, the Top 4 ACC teams are more likely to go to the SEC than the B1G. Although Notre Dame would be 2nd best to Clemson.

A 20 team SEC with Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State would still have a median of 77,320 while a 24 team B1G with Notre Dame, Miami, UNC, Pitt, UVA, GA Tech would have a median of 51,842. If the B1G went larger, the median would go even lower. If the SEC went West, it would lower the SEC median significantly to 62,363 which is still well above the B1G.

 

[qdawgg]

Why would UCF or USF join a dying conference? They wouldn’t.

For the millions more of $. This isn’t complicated.

 

[oldpinepoint]

Updating the 4 year avg and median attendance for all these moves:

SEC 75,932 avg and 83,874 median

B1G 62,957 avg and 56,764 median
Adding the 4 PAC schools made them worse in both.

ACC 47,004 avg and 46,371 median

B12 45,778 avg and 46,590 median
Avg went slightly up and median slightly down. Pretty much broke even.

PAC 33,524 avg and 33,383 median
That is G5 right there. Boise State, USF, and Fresno State would pretty much be pushes if added to the PAC. ECU is barely above those numbers.


When you look at median, the B1G is a lot closer to the ACC and B12 than it is to the SEC. If the ACC is raided, the Top 4 ACC teams are more likely to go to the SEC than the B1G. Although Notre Dame would be 2nd best to Clemson.

A 20 team SEC with Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State would still have a median of 77,320 while a 24 team B1G with Notre Dame, Miami, UNC, Pitt, UVA, GA Tech would have a median of 51,842. If the B1G went larger, the median would go even lower. If the SEC went West, it would lower the SEC median significantly to 62,363 which is still well above the B1G.

Take out Pitt and add SU

 

[Cuse181]

PE firms invest into growing markets, not shrinking ones. Middle East state-run funds have some different goals but can’t imagine a public university being able to rationalize taking that.

they invest in shrinking ones if there is a roll up opportunity and costs that an be centralized/cut. That type of opportunity is possible but you would need to eliminate all the conferences and start rolling up only the leading brands individually.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Take out Pitt and add SU

Either way it wouldn't change the B1G's number.

 

[oldpinepoint]

Either way it wouldn't change the B1G's number.

Agreed

 

[JeremyCuse]

UNC and UVA have impeccable academic reputations, huge fanbases, field championship-level teams for everything but football, and are located in a high population growth area. They’re perfect fits for the B1G, and would complete an east coast footprint that spans NJ, PA, MD, VA and NC. They make all the sense.

It’s hard for me to envision a future where they’re not in the B1G.

It's a well known secret that the B10 has coveted UVA and UNC for years, they will likely be the first two additions aif and when they first become available.

 

[NYCCuse826]

It's a well known secret that the B10 has coveted UVA and UNC for years, they will likely be the first two additions aif and when they first become available.

Imagine that. The ACC would die because of the university they appeased for decades stabbing them in the back.

 

[Timonen]

they invest in shrinking ones if there is a roll up opportunity and costs that an be centralized/cut. That type of opportunity is possible but you would need to eliminate all the conferences and start rolling up only the leading brands individually.

That would actually be hilarious. Pay their exit and get them situated in sec…then take out every cost possible that are necessary to be competitive and just cash the rev share checks.

 

[Toga]

Oklahoma to the B1G. Unless things change.

 

[Newhouser]

UNC and UVA have impeccable academic reputations, huge fanbases, field championship-level teams for everything but football, and are located in a high population growth area. They’re perfect fits for the B1G, and would complete an east coast footprint that spans NJ, PA, MD, VA and NC. They make all the sense.

It’s hard for me to envision a future where they’re not in the B1G.

uNC did have that fake classes thing but can't debate the rest.

 

[Chris02M]

There’s no rush-None of the other big Conferences are taking them

You also don't take a vote until your getting the right outcome

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I don't think FSU has any options right now. If they did they would have left by now. I also don't see the SEC wanting them.

The SEC schools are going to be upset they don't play each other enough.

I think most probably wish they could give AtM and Mizzou back to the Big 12 and just brought Texas and OU over the first time around.

Florida State could easily get left out I think the SEC takes Clemson and Miami over them. UVA and UNC ahead of them too they are 5th choice maybe 6 behind Duke. They bounced back with a decent season last year and have plenty of success but UCF has just as big a fanbase and a more recent National Title if you look at things objectively.

 

[CousCuse]

I was CEO of a Blackstone company for 8 years. I dont see the value proposition that FSU could propose that would make sense to a private equity firm.

Your basing this on the buyout being at full assessment. I can't believe they would be that dumb.

 

[Admiral Koga]

It's a well known secret that the B10 has coveted UVA and UNC for years, they will likely be the first two additions aif and when they first become available.

Question regarding UVa: I've seen this from many blogger mills about the Big 10's desire for UVA but why? The Big 10 had a chance at Stanford and didn't take them. Isn't UVa basically the same thing on the east coast? I know that the Big 10 already has teams in SoCal...but the distance from SanFran to LA is almost UVa to Florida. PSU, Maryland, etc already recruit VA effectively. As far as ratings/population metrics/etc,

 

[longtimefan]

Question regarding UVa: I've seen this from many blogger mills about the Big 10's desire for UVA but why? The Big 10 had a chance at Stanford and didn't take them. Isn't UVa basically the same thing on the east coast? I know that the Big 10 already has teams in SoCal...but the distance from SanFran to LA is almost UVa to Florida. PSU, Maryland, etc already recruit VA effectively. As far as ratings/population metrics/etc,

UNC is at the top of the list, and per Hoo's That, UVa and UNC are attached at the hip.

 

[kcsu]

Your basing this on the buyout being at full assessment. I can't believe they would be that dumb.

Why would ESPN or the schools agree to anything other than a full payment.

 

[DocFlanders]

Kind of deflating to be a 'cuse fan looking at a very bleak future...

 

[orangeinjersey]

Not sure if this was posted yet...

Details of pithy final Pac-12 offers from CBS, ESPN, Fox emerge

The Pac-12 did receive final offers from CBS, ESPN, and Fox this summer, but none were even close to the deal with Apple.

awfulannouncing.com

Ourand reports that Fox’s final offer was for part of what the network considered the Pac-12’s “B” package of games, and would pay out between $35 million and $40 million per season. Fox only would have picked up 13 football games in their proposed deal. While $35 million-$40 million might not seem bad, keep in mind that’s not per school – it’s for the whole conference, meaning the per-school payout would have ended up at around $4 million before defections.


Ourand reports ESPN’s last offer to the conference was “a small bid.”


Neither Amazon nor NBC ever bid for Pac-12 rights. It was widely rumored and expected that Amazon would at least try to get a toe in the water, but they never did. The Pac-12 reportedly talked with NBC three times about a rights deal, including this summer, but an offer was never made.

The delay from last year, when ESPN, Fox and CBS were willing to do a deal, to last week, when all three put forth small bids, was devastating to the Pac-12. A changing media landscape — with shrinking subscriber numbers and employee layoffs — caused the networks to be much more disciplined in where to spend their money than they have in the past.

 

[texascpa]

Not sure if this was posted yet...

Details of pithy final Pac-12 offers from CBS, ESPN, Fox emerge

The Pac-12 did receive final offers from CBS, ESPN, and Fox this summer, but none were even close to the deal with Apple.

awfulannouncing.com

Ourand reports that Fox’s final offer was for part of what the network considered the Pac-12’s “B” package of games, and would pay out between $35 million and $40 million per season. Fox only would have picked up 13 football games in their proposed deal. While $35 million-$40 million might not seem bad, keep in mind that’s not per school – it’s for the whole conference, meaning the per-school payout would have ended up at around $4 million before defections.


Ourand reports ESPN’s last offer to the conference was “a small bid.”


Neither Amazon nor NBC ever bid for Pac-12 rights. It was widely rumored and expected that Amazon would at least try to get a toe in the water, but they never did. The Pac-12 reportedly talked with NBC three times about a rights deal, including this summer, but an offer was never made.

The delay from last year, when ESPN, Fox and CBS were willing to do a deal, to last week, when all three put forth small bids, was devastating to the Pac-12. A changing media landscape — with shrinking subscriber numbers and employee layoffs — caused the networks to be much more disciplined in where to spend their money than they have in the past.

Wow. should be noted to that ratings in the West are generally not as good for games in the East and Midwest.

 

[CuseCactus]

It'd be so very cool if Stanford and Cal joined the ACC. There'd be glorious road trips out to the Bay Area.

And both schools are ones SU should be very proud to be affiliated with.

Stanford - by some measures - is the finest university in the World. And Cal is an incredible university (my dad got his PhD there after going to SU).

They’d both enhance the ACC.

 

[qdawgg]

Your basing this on the buyout being at full assessment. I can't believe they would be that dumb.

It’s dumb to think the ACC schools would except anything less.

 

[Cusefan69]

Not sure if this was posted yet...

Details of pithy final Pac-12 offers from CBS, ESPN, Fox emerge

The Pac-12 did receive final offers from CBS, ESPN, and Fox this summer, but none were even close to the deal with Apple.

awfulannouncing.com

Ourand reports that Fox’s final offer was for part of what the network considered the Pac-12’s “B” package of games, and would pay out between $35 million and $40 million per season. Fox only would have picked up 13 football games in their proposed deal. While $35 million-$40 million might not seem bad, keep in mind that’s not per school – it’s for the whole conference, meaning the per-school payout would have ended up at around $4 million before defections.


Ourand reports ESPN’s last offer to the conference was “a small bid.”


Neither Amazon nor NBC ever bid for Pac-12 rights. It was widely rumored and expected that Amazon would at least try to get a toe in the water, but they never did. The Pac-12 reportedly talked with NBC three times about a rights deal, including this summer, but an offer was never made.

The delay from last year, when ESPN, Fox and CBS were willing to do a deal, to last week, when all three put forth small bids, was devastating to the Pac-12. A changing media landscape — with shrinking subscriber numbers and employee layoffs — caused the networks to be much more disciplined in where to spend their money than they have in the past.

So lots of things can happen in 5 years but if the ESPN'S, Fox's and NBCs of the world are being more targeted in where they put their dollars, it is going to be really interesting to see what happens at the next B12 renewal that happens before I believe both the SEC and B10 renewals.

 

[orangeinjersey]

So lots of things can happen in 5 years but if the ESPN'S, Fox's and NBCs of the world are being more targeted in where they put their dollars, it is going to be really interesting to see what happens at the next B12 renewal that happens before I believe both the SEC and B10 renewals.

I think the money dries up before the GOR is up and these teams go back to their geographic positioning.

 

[All4SU]

uNC did have that fake classes thing but can't debate the rest.

Yeah it’s easy to have high academic standards when the classes don’t exist. ;-)