ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[orangepassion]

Florida State, Clemson unhappy with ACC: Financial hurdles face conference powers potentially leaving

Don't expect FSU and Clemson to add to conference realignment unless they clear some financial hurdles

www.cbssports.com

 

[elimunelson]

Why would ESPN want to kill the ACC?

They own 50% of the ACC network.

I think we overestimate the networks here. They own the network sure but the schools themselves are self serving to an absolute. If FSU can increase the revenue they will do so. not sure what ESPN or ACCN or anyone can do about that.

To me the real end game is how everything reconstitutes once the GoR is toothless (whatever year that is deemed) and who is left at the table and how are they reorganized.

I've said 100x that if we're reorganized i'd like for us to be geographically situated where it makes sense for our student athletes and students. Play schools locally once again across all olympic sports/hoops/and even football. Our best success in football was when we were a regional power. I know things have changed but that's our best path forward IMO

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If it comes to a choice of that 20 team B12 I listed earlier or a leftover Northeast conference, IMO it is better for our sports to not be in that B12. I think that would kill our BBall program.

We made a living off of recruiting the DC to Boston corridor. That B12 would clearly be below the B1G so we are at a disadvantage vs Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State. We are also at a disadvantage to keep kids and coaches here because of NIL/Salary $ that the SEC and B1G can pay. Plus the Big East one could argue is a better BBall conference too (especially if they add Gonzaga). If you are a recruit from DC-Boston wouldn't you rather play multiple games in those locations, vs going to SU where you will play one game a year? Not since the early days of the Big East has SU not been in a top flight conference. That B12 would be at best #3 and clearly below the first 2. I don't think we can be a perennial Top 25 team playing in a leftovers B12.

For FB I rather play our traditional opponents than the Frankenstein B12. We might make less money from TV, but IMO we would be more competitive, have a chance at the playoffs, have higher attendance in both FB and BBall (more $), have more donation money (since we don't stink), and have less travel costs. The difference in net money would be minimal, and not worth all the negatives that come with a national B12.

To expand on this think about how fun a conference BBall tourney at MSG would be that contained SU, Duke, UConn, Georgetown, St Johns, Pitt, WV, BC, Temple, USF.

And a FB CG at Yankee Stadium MetLife?

 

[Scooch]

Unequal revenue distribution won't work long term. It'd be a band-aid, but not a fix. It'll also create a shi!ton of resentment in the conference. If the ACC goes in that direction it is acknowledging that they'll be breaking apart someday.

It's particularly galling coming from FSU, who just emerged from a 5 year stretch where they were an anchor on the conference.

The reality is that if FSU and Clemson want to leave, eventually they'll leave. Either to a bigger payday in the SEC or Big 12.

 

[Chip]

Unequal revenue distribution won't work long term. It'd be a band-aid, but not a fix. It'll also create a shi!ton of resentment in the conference. If the ACC goes in that direction it is acknowledging that they'll be breaking apart someday.

It's particularly galling coming from FSU, who just emerged from a 5 year stretch where they were an anchor on the conference.

The reality is that if FSU and Clemson want to leave, eventually they'll leave. Either to a bigger payday in the SEC or Big 12.

Agree, it will never work.

What I wonder though, is if conferences will start shedding deadweight. The reasoning behind some schools getting invites might not hold true today with their current contracts. So if there's no downside to dumping someone, why not share the loot between less entities?

 

[elimunelson]

Unequal revenue distribution won't work long term. It'd be a band-aid, but not a fix. It'll also create a shi!ton of resentment in the conference. If the ACC goes in that direction it is acknowledging that they'll be breaking apart someday.

It's particularly galling coming from FSU, who just emerged from a 5 year stretch where they were an anchor on the conference.

The reality is that if FSU and Clemson want to leave, eventually they'll leave. Either to a bigger payday in the SEC or Big 12.

We're moon walking past the graveyard when these comments go public (which let's be honest with ourselves, we KNEW it was coming).

These conferences hold zero nostaglia for anyone anyway. I really don't care if they splinter eventually because ultimately money bound us to the ACC and money will unshackle us from this unholy marriage.

In terms of Syracuse football, we're an afterthought in any of this musical chairs brinkmanship btw the SEC/BIG (those are really the two crowns of financial FU-ness). Everything else is just accomodation unless we figure out a way to marry ND and become financially independent in football and be compensated for a nostalgic big east relationship.

 

[sutomcat]

Unequal revenue distribution won't work long term. It'd be a band-aid, but not a fix. It'll also create a shi!ton of resentment in the conference. If the ACC goes in that direction it is acknowledging that they'll be breaking apart someday.

It's particularly galling coming from FSU, who just emerged from a 5 year stretch where they were an anchor on the conference.

The reality is that if FSU and Clemson want to leave, eventually they'll leave. Either to a bigger payday in the SEC or Big 12.

Agree.

I find FSU unbelievably clueless. Want to know who was responsible for the ACC extending the contract with ESPN over and over, for small increases in money payouts?

It was FSU. No one should ever listen to one of their clueless administrators.

Oh yeah, and that $120 million figure their lawyers have determined is what it will take to buy out the ACC GOR?

They are off by about $350 million.

Idiots.

 

[elimunelson]

Agree.

I find FSU unbelievably clueless. Want to know who was responsible for the ACC extending the contract with ESPN over and over, for small increases in money payouts?

It was FSU. No one should ever listen to one of their clueless administrators.

Oh yeah, and that $120 million figure their lawyers have determined is what it will take to buy out the ACC GOR?

They are off by about $350 million.

Idiots.

Tom, that's accurate. I think the thing we're missing is if they want to leave they'll negotiate their exit. I doubt the ACC will hold them hostage till 2035. At a point there will be a number that works for them and works for the ACC. My guess it's something btw 120-350 (and probably alot closer to 120).

The more curious exit won't be FSU (or even Clemson) it'll be UNC and UVA imo. Those are the schools that are needle movers academically and athletically.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Agree, it will never work.

What I wonder though, is if conferences will start shedding deadweight. The reasoning behind some schools getting invites might not hold true today with their current contracts. So if there's no downside to dumping someone, why not share the loot between less entities?

The B1G doesn't really have deadweight. Maybe an argument can be made for Purdue. Yes, Maryland and Rutgers aren't great at football but they expand the B1G's footprint East and into large markets.

The SEC I think you are looking at Vandy and Miss State. They could probably convince Vandy to leave on their own given the fact they fit in no way.

I suppose you could see the B1G/SEC consider a promotion/relegation model. In which case you could split 7/8 of the money evenly amongst all schools, and the other 1/8 goes to the schools in the premier division. That makes it "fair" compared to plain old uneven distribution. So if you have a payout of $1B then the top 8 split $562.5M while the bottom 8 split $437.5M. Those bottom 8 schools still make a lot more than schools in the ACC/B12/P12.

So for the B1G...

Premier
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA

Other
Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers

 

[Chris02M]

Than who? The B1G/SEC? Sure but so will being in the B12. Our choice is a Frankenstein B12 making new P12 type of money or being in a Northeast centric conference making old type of AAC money. Both suck.

than the acc currently makes

 

[Orangefan1]

None of the coming out now is good for Syracuse. Seems like we keep talking about the same things with this conference and nothing seems to be happening. We need Notre Dame in the conference or it will implode

 

[HtownOrange]

I don't see why the ACC would let ACC schools go early unless their exit was covered with an ungodly amount of cash.

Oklahoma and Texas recently negotiated a deal with the B12 to leave one year early. One year. They each are reportedly paying $50 million to get out of the B12 one year before the GOR expires.

Right now FSU and Clemson are tied to the ACC for 13 more years. If they negotiated the same deal today, each would play $50 million x 13 or $650 million each.

I would assume the ACC would be looking for a similar deal. If the exit fee was $120 million, these schools would be paying less than $10 million a year to get out. That seems extremely unrealistic to me. Sput ESPN on notice that team will watch the neounds great if you are an FSU booster but I can't see ACC schools agreeing to something like that.

What FSU's mouthing off does do is put ESPN on notice that ACC teams will closely watch how well ESPN treats the next look-in. If good, the ACC will be fine, if not, the B1G will be sending out feelers and opening negotiations and the SEC will be deciding who they want. It will take time, but the this is high stakes poker and everyone is watching to see who is bluffing.

 

[kcsu]

Espn needs to keep the acc intact. There is simply way too much content at stake

 

[CU44SE]

What FSU's mouthing off does do is put ESPN on notice that ACC teams will closely watch how well ESPN treats the next look-in. If good, the ACC will be fine, if not, the B1G will be sending out feelers and opening negotiations and the SEC will be deciding who they want. It will take time, but the this is high stakes poker and everyone is watching to see who is bluffing.

I’m starting to think the lookins are a crock of . One look in went by and we didn’t hear anything. No increase or any communication about it. ACC is still at the same price point it was before the look in.

 

[All4SU]

This entire thread…

 

[Newhouser]

What FSU's mouthing off does do is put ESPN on notice that ACC teams will closely watch how well ESPN treats the next look-in. If good, the ACC will be fine, if not, the B1G will be sending out feelers and opening negotiations and the SEC will be deciding who they want. It will take time, but the this is high stakes poker and everyone is watching to see who is bluffing.

Good summary - I sort of admire FSU for taking the lead. I thought it would be Clemson.

 

[Hoo's That]

None of the coming out now is good for Syracuse. Seems like we keep talking about the same things with this conference and nothing seems to be happening. We need Notre Dame in the conference or it will implode

This isn't happening, so another plan needs to be devised. ND has even less of a need than before to join a conference under the new playoff format.

 

[SmilinBob]

The ACC is the mistress that ND never leaves his wife for but always hints he will. Time to cut the cord.

 

[elimunelson]

This isn't happening, so another plan needs to be devised. ND has even less of a need than before to join a conference under the new playoff format.

I think we need to attach to ND in some fashion more than anything. My guess is the ACC will dismantle in some form if FSU and Clemson are already pining to leave. Once that happens, it's a question of cost.

ND should just create the black box and figure out a way to create a non league/league of like minded schools. Not sure how it would work since ND wouldn't be in a conference per se but i would think if ACC breaks apart they'd want to have their olympics/hoops back in a conf with schools of similar ilk (maybe big east) and to protect some of these traditional football rivals.

I think our path forward will be set by ND ironically enough. I have ZERO faith in the ACC long term as a partner if everyone is looking to leave at some point.

 

[TheCusian]

I stand by my thought that the SEC and B1G don't want any ACC school. There's not a huge need for either to add teams. Diminishing returns.

ESPN has a vested interest in the ACC being #3, but on the cheap. The GOR ties both the network and the conference into a giant knot.

FSU is being performative about a situation they can't change because they can't change it.

 

[elimunelson]

I stand by my thought that the SEC and B1G don't want any ACC school. There's not a huge need for either to add teams. Diminishing returns.

ESPN has a vested interest in the ACC being #3, but on the cheap. The GOR ties both the network and the conference into a giant knot.

FSU is being performative about a situation they can't change because they can't change it.

i hope you're right but i refuse to think they are performative about any of this. It's somewhat pollyanish to think FSU/Clemson aren't a bit sullen about the influx of cash their state partners are going to receive and how far it may hold them back.

i think the ACC is going to have major issues ultimately because being third in the revenue dept for some of these schools isn't going to cut the cake. I also refuse to believe the SEC/BIG wouldn't want UVA/UNC/FSU/Miami for their geographical buildouts. That's crazy to think otherwise.

when structural gerrymandering is preventing teams from doing what they really want which is maximize their earning potential, the structure will eventual break. I defintiely think it's a matter of when not if

 

[Consigliere]

Agree.

I find FSU unbelievably clueless. Want to know who was responsible for the ACC extending the contract with ESPN over and over, for small increases in money payouts?

It was FSU. No one should ever listen to one of their clueless administrators.

Oh yeah, and that $120 million figure their lawyers have determined is what it will take to buy out the ACC GOR?

They are off by about $350 million.

Idiots.

Empty threat. At least for now. This is all about the ACC discussion on unequal revenue sharing and FSU strengthening their position in their mind.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

No I think they are 100% mad about it and want to see the gap closed - I just think they are grasping at the wind a bit.

The B1G just got rid the conference commissioner who expanded due in part because he was talking about adding more teams. If you add Southeast teams to the LA schools and end up with 4 more teams - it's not a conference by any modern definition. Maybe that won't matter - but I'm not sure it's worth it monetarily (more mouths the feed).

In short, I have no doubt they want $ and the path to that money is closed from everyones perspective - hence the performative statements. It's all they have right now. And again, I think the desire for these ACC teams is overstated.

You don’t think that the SEC would want UNC and VA Tech?

You don’t think the B1G wants to be in growing population states? And in fertile recruiting grounds?

You don’t think that the networks want a multitude of markets so they can charge advertisers or subscribers?

 

[MSOrange]

No I think they are 100% mad about it and want to see the gap closed - I just think they are grasping at the wind a bit.

The B1G just got rid the conference commissioner who expanded due in part because he was talking about adding more teams. If you add Southeast teams to the LA schools and end up with 4 more teams - it's not a conference by any modern definition. Maybe that won't matter - but I'm not sure it's worth it monetarily (more mouths the feed).

In short, I have no doubt they want $ and the path to that money is closed from everyones perspective - hence the performative statements. It's all they have right now. And again, I think the desire for these ACC teams is overstated.

I'm not sure the B1G "got rid" of their commissioner.

 

[kcsu]

I don't see why the ACC would let ACC schools go early unless their exit was covered with an ungodly amount of cash.

Oklahoma and Texas recently negotiated a deal with the B12 to leave one year early. One year. They each are reportedly paying $50 million to get out of the B12 one year before the GOR expires.

Right now FSU and Clemson are tied to the ACC for 13 more years. If they negotiated the same deal today, each would play $50 million x 13 or $650 million each.

I would assume the ACC would be looking for a similar deal. If the exit fee was $120 million, these schools would be paying less than $10 million a year to get out. That seems extremely unrealistic to me. Sounds great if you are an FSU booster but I can't see ACC schools agreeing to something like that.

Spot on Tom. There is zero chance the league lets anyone out for 120 M at this point. The number will be a minimum of 500m