ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HtownOrange]

I guess we have to hope everyone is stuck on this train until 2036; and, then deal with whatever happens after that.

The burden is on SU to be the best team it can in all sports. If SU proves up, they will be wanted by other conferences in the ACC falls apart. Again, SU's future is heavily impacted by what SU does now and going forward. The GOR offers SU time to do what it needs to do.

If the ACC proves up as a whole, great, they stay together with a good deal going forward. If not, SU will be wanted by another conference.

 

[HouClone]

If the ACC proves up as a whole, great, they stay together with a good deal going forward. If not, SU will be wanted by another conference.

Which conference would that be? The Big 10 loves their AAU requirement and SU gave it up. The east coast won't watch the Big 12. SEC? Kind of a reach unfortunately. Big East, bring the band back. Think it is ACC or bust.

 

[HtownOrange]

Which conference would that be? The Big 10 loves their AAU requirement and SU gave it up. The east coast won't watch the Big 12. SEC? Kind of a reach unfortunately. Big East, bring the band back. Think it is ACC or bust.

How soon we forget…

SU was on the B1G’s target list and was caught off guard when SU and Pitt jumped to the ACC. That is why they panicked and ended up with Rutgers. AAU is less of a problem than the internet rumor that started 15-20 years ago.

As to the SEC as it is, I agree SU is a reach. However, ESPN owns the SECN and the ACCN, both of which run in the black. If super conferences are where things are going, it is easier for ESPN to merge the two properties they presently own than to destroy one property, lose teams to competitors, then back fill with mediocre or less valuable teams.

If nothing else, the Big12 Island of Misfit Toys conference will be there for a landing. SU is the sole P5 team in the fourth most populous state, has the facilities, is a national known program in three sports (and improving in more olympic sports), SU has wide support in many matrices are not discussed on the web.

Again, if SU does it’s part to improve, SU will be fine. Regardless, SU does not have the resources to break the GOR or buy back its broadcast rights, why waste time pretending the Big12 deal is better? The present ACC deal will pay more than the Big12. Even if it’s close, the ACC exit fee is $120MM plus (3X the payout which is projected at $43MM). How soon will SU recover the alleged bump from the Big12 For the exit fee alone? And how much longer for SU to recover from the broadcast rights buy back?

Show me real numbers, if they work out I will concede. To date, all speculators only talk on one point or maybe two. When numbers are calculated, the talkers run and hide or make emotional pleas. These are the same talkers that alleged that the numbers work, are hard and they are being cold and calculating. Yet they refuse to back up claims when faced with all the facts. I am looking for a way out as an alternative but the best way out right now is to be patient.

I am for SU, not the ACC. Right now, the two are aligned.

 

[JimBoston]

Which conference would that be? The Big 10 loves their AAU requirement and SU gave it up. The east coast won't watch the Big 12. SEC? Kind of a reach unfortunately. Big East, bring the band back. Think it is ACC or bust.

I think the Big 12 is thinking big. I think they would consider an eastern division that included Syracuse, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, WVU, Cincy, UCF, and Pitt.

 

[JimBoston]

ACC probably gets another $12 million from the ACCN which will grow upwards with Comcast on board.

Going forward, the ACC will receive more money from the ACCN.

The ACCN is built on the old media model in which captive cable subscribers in a market have to pay for a channel whether they want it or not. Subscribers to the ACCN should peak this year as Comcast comes on board providing full penetration. Then the ACCN subscriber count will start to decline with cable cord cutting, just like what is happening to ESPN. That is why ESPN is exploring a direct to consumer product for ESPN to offset their declining subscriber count due to cord cutting. The key question for the ACCN over the next 10 years is can the network succeed in a streaming world?

 

[HtownOrange]

I think the Big 12 is thinking big. I think they would consider an eastern division that included Syracuse, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, WVU, Cincy, UCF, and Pitt.

Fair assumption. Please show the numbers and make it work. How do the ACC teams leave and make this happen?

ACC exit fee is roughly $43Mm X 3, or $129MM and goes up annually.

The broadcast rights buy back as at a minimum of the annual payout x2.1 (established by OU and UT for a one year deal that actually benefited the Big12 for OU and UT to leave early) X the number of years left. This season wil be played so there are 12 seasons left. $43MM X 2.1 X 12 = $1,083,600,000.

As has been alluded to, not all ACC schools will have a soft landing, there is no incentive to break up the ACC. Further, this magical scenario ignores ESPN’s rights to just say no! What incentive does ESPN have to blow up a profitable network to benefit SU, or even 5-10 ACC teams?

Please support your hypothesis with some hard numbers or discussion by decison makers.

 

[HtownOrange]

The ACCN is built on the old media model in which captive cable subscribers in a market have to pay for a channel whether they want it or not. Subscribers to the ACCN should peak this year as Comcast comes on board providing full penetration. Then the ACCN subscriber count will start to decline with cable cord cutting, just like what is happening to ESPN. That is why ESPN is exploring a direct to consumer product for ESPN to offset their declining subscriber count due to cord cutting. The key question for the ACCN over the next 10 years is can the network succeed in a streaming world?

The issue is when will ESPN convert. Iger’s statements have no timeline. Until the break-even point is met, cable will still be a player.

Remember, ESPN benefits from all subscribers paying for the bundle. Many don’t watch ESPN networks. That revenue will be lost forever when ESPN makes the switch.

 

[TexanMark]

No chance that any current ACC schools would backstab us. Looking at you Louisville, Boston College...

What did Louisville do to SU?

 

[Cuse'91]

What did Louisville do to SU?

Louisville Could Be 8th Team To Keep ACC Secession Train Rolling; Expansion, Realignment News

The Realignment and expansion news continues as ACC powers meet in Amelia Island to discuss the future of the conference, among other things.

www.abc10.com

 

[Chris02M]

The ACC got a bump from the ACCN and another bump from Comcast putting the ACCN on their systems. Now, the ACCN subs will go into a secular decline just like ESPN is in a LT sub decline. ESPN is looking into streaming ESPN, but it would cost consumers anywhere from $30 to $50 per month depending on which ESPN channels (ACCN, SECN, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU,...) would be included and how much consumers would pay. The question for the ACCN is would consumers pay for it if it becomes a streaming service because that is coming?

IF there is a decrease in subs, it will be the same as sec as all espn channels are negotiated as 1 so if there is a decrease, it will be the same decrease for sec. The streaming only is not going to be a thing for several years as traditional tv is still valuable to those a bit older who don't use smart phones.

Streaming(specifically youtube tv or hulu live) is going through a phase right now, it was way cheaper than traditional tv in the beginning so a lot of people switched, then the streaming outlets increased there pricing, and it became more of a discussion as if the prices are relatively close people will pay for the extra channels and stay with traditional tv especially if you are paying for the internet in a bundle anyway and the traditional tv ie spectrum gives you a discount price.

Eventually it will get to the point where it will be streaming only but there needs to be more advancement in technology and bandwidths before that becomes the "norm"

 

[rrlbees]

Louisville Could Be 8th Team To Keep ACC Secession Train Rolling; Expansion, Realignment News

The Realignment and expansion news continues as ACC powers meet in Amelia Island to discuss the future of the conference, among other things.

www.abc10.com

You need to go read all of David Hales tweets.

 

[JimBoston]

IF there is a decrease in subs, it will be the same as sec as all espn channels are negotiated as 1 so if there is a decrease, it will be the same decrease for sec. The streaming only is not going to be a thing for several years as traditional tv is still valuable to those a bit older who don't use smart phones.

Correct, the loss of bundled cable subscribers is impacting all of the ESPN networks including the SEC Network. ESPN could bundle all of the channels in a direct to consumer product or sell them a la carte. Then the question becomes how many fans will pay for each channel. That is why the latest/next round of conference realignment is focused on brands not cable markets.

Think about this, ESPN has lost ~25% of subscribers in the last 10 years due to cord cutting and it appears the rate of cord cutting is accelerating. Price increases have offset the decline in subs, but there is a limit to how much ESPN can increase prices in today's cable environment. Thus, I would think in the next 5 years, ESPN will sell a direct to consumer package.

 

[longtimefan]

Correct, the loss of bundled cable subscribers is impacting all of the ESPN networks including the SEC Network. ESPN could bundle all of the channels in a direct to consumer product or sell them a la carte. Then the question becomes how many fans will pay for each channel. That is why the latest/next round of conference realignment is focused on brands not cable markets.

Think about this, ESPN has lost ~25% of subscribers in the last 10 years due to cord cutting and it appears the rate of cord cutting is accelerating. Price increases have offset the decline in subs, but there is a limit to how much ESPN can increase prices in today's cable environment. Thus, I would think in the next 5 years, ESPN will sell a direct to consumer package.

They already have a package--ESPN+ & Disney+ & Hulu+. I expect they will tack the other ESPN products onto that.

 

[Cuse'91]

You need to go read all of David Hales tweets.

I have. You realize Hale covers the ACC; he has an agenda he is pushing. I'm also not sure ESPN has the power to tell the SEC or Big12, where and how they can expand. It's a fluid situation; anyone thinking that a plausible scenario is impossible, is fooling themselves.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

ND signed five year deals with NBC from the initial 1991 deal until renewing the 2010 deal in 2013.

It then signed a ten year deal running from 2016-2025.

The original 1991 deal was for $9 million a year.

Is ND pissed that NBC is giving the Big Ten money?

I think ND would be an Ohio St clone in terms of winning and recruiting and top 5 in everything no matter what if they joined the ACC full time they've won something like 30 straight regular season games. Last year they humiliated UNC and Clemson worse than us they drew the 3 best teams in the ACC and not a single game was remotely close. Huge missed opportunity.

 

[rrlbees]

I have. You realize Hale covers the ACC; he has an agenda he is pushing. I'm also not sure ESPN has the power to tell the SEC or Big12, where and how they can expand. It's a fluid situation; anyone thinking that a plausible scenario is impossible, is fooling themselves.

LOL. Yea, he’s pushing an agenda. Might even be lying.

 

[Cuse'91]

LOL. Yea, he’s pushing an agenda. Might even be lying.

Yeah, it's not like his livelihood depends on the ACC. Gutting or dissolving of the ACC wouldn't affect his ability to put food on the table for his family or anything.

 

[JimBoston]

They already have a package--ESPN+ & Disney+ & Hulu+. I expect they will tack the other ESPN products onto that.

ESPN+ is charging $9.99/mo on a standalone basis (actual net pricing is $5.64/mo) with little premium content. If they added the ESPN content and channels to ESPN+, they would probably have to charge $50/month, maybe more to remain revenue neutral as cable subs are paying ~$9/month for the ESPN channels today. No matter, we should start seeing how streaming plays out for ESPN in the next few years.

 

[HouClone]

I agree

The issue is when will ESPN convert. Iger’s statements have no timeline. Until the break-even point is met, cable will still be a player.

Remember, ESPN benefits from all subscribers paying for the bundle. Many don’t watch ESPN networks. That revenue will be lost forever when ESPN makes the switch.

Agree, still think it is years away before ESPN goes all streaming.

I am curious how it is going to work with these entities going all streaming. I flip around all channels, ESPN, Fox, CBS, ACCN, etc. If I have to keep getting out of an app to sign in to another, it is going to suck.

I imagine there will be a YouTube, Sling, type that organizes the apps with your sign in info for the apps to give you one common interface. Technology isn't there yet I don't think. I guess that is the answer. When the technology gets there, ESPN goes streaming.

 

[Chris02M]

They already have a package--ESPN+ & Disney+ & Hulu+. I expect they will tack the other ESPN products onto that.

espn + doesnt really do much unless you want to watch olympic sports

 

[MSOrange]

espn + doesnt really do much unless you want to watch olympic sports

Or non-Power 5 content. I guess Big 12 also.

 

[longtimefan]

espn + doesnt really do much unless you want to watch olympic sports

But, it could upsized to add more content--for a price, of course.

 

[Moontan]

espn + doesnt really do much unless you want to watch olympic sports

Or European football/soccer games. I have a few times.
Also handy to watch the first round of the women's lax championship.
Fortunately, I get it for free (reimbursed).

YouTubeTV carries all of the ESPN channels + ACCN + SECN. I doubt it'll be dropped.
If it does, my YouTubeTV subscription cost should come down, though not as much as the ESPN package that I'd like (all ESPN channels + ACCN + SECN + ACCN+, etc.).

We're not interested in the Disney & Hulu bundles... unless Hulu were to include our other favorites from YouTubeTV (including local TV).

 

[Moontan]

Can we please play this for the ADs, networks, NCAA, SEC/Big10, ACC, boosters with bags of cash, as well as the fans who have lost their way…

JUST STOP IT (Click Here)

That was a great episode this week. This video should've included some of the after affects...

 

[qdawgg]

I think the Big 12 is thinking big. I think they would consider an eastern division that included Syracuse, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, WVU, Cincy, UCF, and Pitt.

Thinking big is very different than making big $. There are literally almost no plays left unless the ACC is blown up and teams are picked off by the SEC or B10. The B12 isn’t crap. They’re just trying to survive. That’s not the same as thinking big. Adding a bunch of teams to their conference that add no value and dumb down the conference isn’t thinking big. It’s reactionary. It’s what the “desperate to survive” do.