ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[Chris02M]

If the B1G is expanding big, they are going much bigger than 24, probably closer to 32 or 36. If they are going big, expect targets on both coasts.

32 and 36 make for nice numbers to make regional divisions, too.

Though I remain neutral on whether the B1G will or won't continue larger expansion plans, if they do at some point the conference becomes too unwieldy and cumbersome unless they are big enough to recreate some historic rivalries to counter all of the new forced "rivalries". Eg.: The historic B1G teams will want their old rivalries more often. The west coast teams will want some old rivalries (travel is less of an issue other than an extra hour or two in the air), PSU still wants more eastern rivalries and if the B1G is serious about UVA, UNC and GATech, they will want one or two "friends" to come along.

unlikely anytime soon

 

[HtownOrange]

unlikely anytime soon

I agree, the earliest is likely 2036, or close to it when the ACC GOR is up for renegotiation. If the ACC has been doing well, the ACC will still be solidly in third place and will be offered a good deal to keep it together, good enough to keep everyone happy, knowing their partners and close enough to the other tow.

If not, ESPN will drag as many profitable teams/markets (read hoops and football) into the SEC fold to keep as much of the ACC properties as they can. The B1G will offer every team they want and several on their list but not quite first choices to open new markets on the east coast (UVA, UNC, Clemson, GATech, Miami/FSU)/block ESPN from the northeast (Pitt/SU/possibly BC, possibly VATech, possibly NCState) and there will be a few left overs. The leftovers will likely join the B12 Monstrosity everyone seems to want to the the new P3 conference.

 

[kcsu]

Today, it's hard to see a scenario in which ND decides to join the B1G. They are more than content in trading topping out in the 5 v. 12 game for their independence. They are leaving money on the table already, because, IIRC, their NBC plus ACC payouts added together are less than what full ACC members get. They consider themselves a coastal school, rather than a Midwest school, because most of their alums are on the coasts and in Chicago and not scattered around Iowa, Wisconsin, or even Indiana. Their fans absolutely detest the fact that their hockey team has to play in the B1G (and wear the B1G logo) because of the regionalization mandate of the NCAA (they formerly played in Hockey East).

On their board, the ND fans call BC "Fredo".

so classic!!

 

[Jeepers]

ND doesn’t give a shyte about BC and they give even less for SU and Pitt.

Maybe not, but they definitely care about the amount of Catholics in those states.

 

[SU94]

BC CUSE DUKE won’t make the cut in an expanded BIG imo.

I can honestly see Duke going to the IVY League.

could see a scenario where the SEC expands WEST to 24 teams adding KU CU ASU Arizona.

This is hilarious, actually.
Duke is just as apt to be invited to join NATO as they are the Ivy league.

Duke is a really, really good school (not even trying to poop on it this time). But if you think the Ivy League is considering expansion on the basis of athletics, ... you are the equivalent of a blind guy in a dark room. No shot. Way less than zero.

 

[Cuse'91]

This is hilarious, actually.
Duke is just as apt to be invited to join NATO as they are the Ivy league.

Duke is a really, really good school (not even trying to poop on it this time). But if you think the Ivy League is considering expansion on the basis of athletics, ... you are the equivalent of a blind guy in a dark room. No shot. Way less than zero.

Have to agree with this. Plus, it kinda puts the kibosh on the moniker, "Ancient Eight."

 

[HRE Otto IV]

ND doesn’t give a shyte about BC and they give even less for SU and Pitt.

Agreed that they don't give a crap about those three schools. They also don't give a crap about joining the B16. If BC, SU, Pitt are all outside the B16, ND cannot be forced into the B16.

When SU and Pitt left the Big East, Notre Dame left because the leftover Big East was not viable. As long as the ACC is viable, ND will not be forced to join a conference.

So if the SEC or B16 gobbled up BC, SU, Pitt then ND's hand is forced.

IMO people shouldn't discount the SEC/ESPN trying to get ND. Currently there is no way in hell ND would consider it. But if the SEC eventually in stages grabs FSU, Clemson, GA Tech, UNC, Duke, UVA, Pitt, SU, BC the SEC is all of a sudden more attractive than the B16. They get games in Texas, Florida, and the Northeast. Only Cali is missing but ND can get that OOC.

The key would be UNC. Academically the B16 makes way more sense. But athletically UNC rather be in a Southern conference. They also don't want to go to the B16 and then have little brother NC State in the SEC. So if the SEC told UNC we will take UVA, Duke, and GA Tech to make you happy then they might very well go.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I saw the below on the UConn board. SU was #144. Even if we could add ESF and Upstate Med we would still be outside the Top 100. FSU was not listed at #83. Colorado is listed at #52 and #49 so when combined they are higher. Notre Dame was #106. Oregon was #60. Assuming no one else was missed.

Looking at the below and B16 prospects, I think it...

Hurts: Kansas, Cal, Oregon, BC, SU, Clemson
Helps: Colorado, Washington, Duke, Pitt, VA Tech, Baylor

------------


P5 schools in top 100.

#88 UConn

B1G
#3 Michigan
#6 UCLA
#8 Wisconsin
#12 Ohio State
#17 Maryland
#22 Minnesota
#26 Penn State
#28 USC
#30 Northwestern
#37 Illinois
#39 MSU
#40 Indiana
#41 Purdue
#45 Rutgers
#50 Iowa
#87 Nebraska


ACC
#11 Duke
#13 UNC
#18 Pitt
#20 GT
#48 Virginia
#54 Virginia Tech
#53 NC State
#75 Miami


Big 12
#38 Baylor
#51 Cincinnati
#72 Kansas
#77 Iowa State

SEC
#16 Texas A&M
#19 Texas
#24 Vandy
#27 Florida
#57 Georgia
#64 UK
#71 Missouri
#74 Oklahoma
#94 USC-e
#97 MSU
#100 Auburn

Pac-12
#5 Washington
#9 Stanford
#32 Cal
#36 Arizona
#42 Arizona State
#47 Utah
#52 Colorado
#94 Oregon State

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think after seeing the above I think the B1G ideal would be to add Washington, Stanford, Colorado, Kansas, Baylor, Pitt, UVA, UNC, Duke, GA Tech, Miami, Notre Dame.

Then have divisions of...

Washington, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Baylor
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois
Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland
UVA, UNC, Duke, Miami
Northwestern, Notre Dame, Pitt, GA Tech

That allows you to play everyone once every 4 years, one team twice every 4 years, and you keep 4 yearly rivals. IMO anything over 28 teams makes it nearly impossible to schedule. It becomes too big.

So looking at ND's top 10 teams played...

Yearly: Navy (OOC), USC, Pitt, Northwestern, GA Tech
Once every 4 years: Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford
Not on schedule: Army (could add yearly OOC)

Expanding to their Top 20
Yearly: None
Twice every 4 years: Miami
Once every 4 years: Indiana, Iowa, UNC, Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska
None: Air Force, BC, Carnegie Melon

So it would be a national conference which allows for a national schedule. Of their Top 20 all time played opponents 15 would be in the B16. One team no longer plays football. Another team they would play OOC every year. That leaves one OOC game which they could rotate between BC (Boston) and Army (NYC). Which means over a four year period they play all but Air Force from their Top 19. They can also play the Navy game in San Diego or Houston to add more games in those two states.

 

[longtimefan]

W

I saw the below on the UConn board. SU was #144. Even if we could add ESF and Upstate Med we would still be outside the Top 100. FSU was not listed at #83. Colorado is listed at #52 and #49 so when combined they are higher. Notre Dame was #106. Oregon was #60. Assuming no one else was missed.

Looking at the below and B16 prospects, I think it...

Hurts: Kansas, Cal, Oregon, BC, SU, Clemson
Helps: Colorado, Washington, Duke, Pitt, VA Tech, Baylor

------------


P5 schools in top 100.

#88 UConn

B1G
#3 Michigan
#6 UCLA
#8 Wisconsin
#12 Ohio State
#17 Maryland
#22 Minnesota
#26 Penn State
#28 USC
#30 Northwestern
#37 Illinois
#39 MSU
#40 Indiana
#41 Purdue
#45 Rutgers
#50 Iowa
#87 Nebraska


ACC
#11 Duke
#13 UNC
#18 Pitt
#20 GT
#48 Virginia
#54 Virginia Tech
#53 NC State
#75 Miami


Big 12
#38 Baylor
#51 Cincinnati
#72 Kansas
#77 Iowa State

SEC
#16 Texas A&M
#19 Texas
#24 Vandy
#27 Florida
#57 Georgia
#64 UK
#71 Missouri
#74 Oklahoma
#94 USC-e
#97 MSU
#100 Auburn

Pac-12
#5 Washington
#9 Stanford
#32 Cal
#36 Arizona
#42 Arizona State
#47 Utah
#52 Colorado
#94 Oregon State

What is being rated here?

 

[Hoo's That]

Last time I'll post this. No one wants Duke. They are just another mouth to feed and their basketball future won't be as glorious as their basketball past. There are plenty of teams already in conferences or under secret consideration to pad the powers' schedules with easy to semi-easy wins.

 

[All4SU]

Maybe not, but they definitely care about the amount of Catholics in those states.

Most of the ND fans I’ve met aren’t even Catholic. They’re just front runner wannabes. They follow the Yankees, whoever the NBA team du jour is, and ND.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

W

What is being rated here?

Research funding

 

[elimunelson]

This is hilarious, actually.
Duke is just as apt to be invited to join NATO as they are the Ivy league.

Duke is a really, really good school (not even trying to poop on it this time). But if you think the Ivy League is considering expansion on the basis of athletics, ... you are the equivalent of a blind guy in a dark room. No shot. Way less than zero.

I wouldn’t discount the Ivy League remaining static forever

Duke sounds insane but I could see the league reading the tea leaves and expanding their schools and athletic push if it can retain its academic excellence.

The league doesn’t have a tv contract and at some point these schools will come under assault from a populist who will want to take their golden gooses.

 

[longtimefan]

Here's a pretty good expansion for them which, of course, is unlikely to happen - Colgate and Johns Hopkins. Good balance of academics and athletics.

I don't think Hopkins has ambitions to go D-I in any sport beyond lax.

 

[SU94]

Here's a pretty good expansion for them which, of course, is unlikely to happen - Colgate and Johns Hopkins. Good balance of academics and athletics.

(It'll never happen, but ...)
I have always seen Georgetown as the IVY's 9th if the eight Chancellors ever got a little loopy on wine late one night and booty-called another school. But JHU makes just as much sense.

I don't see Colgate in that same realm. Colgate to a degree has "the look" (which means almost nothing), but their enrollment is 50% smaller than Dartmouth's (smallest in the Ivy League) and I am not sure they have the medical school profile (if any) to match up.
(now I sound like I still hang out on Frank The Tank's site incessantly)

 

[elimunelson]

Hey, forever is a long time. I will grant you that...

That said, in one year's time, IVY League endowments grew $48.6B (that's a B) from 2020 to 2021. It should collectively reach a $1 Trillon (that's a T) in the next ~25 years. That's per Forbes, so it is not gospel, but ballpark-ish.

The IVY schools would simply NOT risk alienating even a small grouping of alums/benefactors for athletics and the relatively measly sum that comes with it. A move like that would undoubtedly rankle the IVY elite. They already have their own tiers, with Harvard, Yale and Princeton assuming the top mantle. Expansion for the sake of athletics? It is just not worth it. Ain't happening.

i don't disagree w any of that. i just think at some point a politician will make the IVY league a target for populist angst. They've somewhat been immune so far.

I do think GTown, Duke, Stanford, Service Academies would fold in nicely if college sports go down a real bleak path and schools decide to become more academic centric and in turn the Ivy becomes 5% more athletic centric.

I am 47, i'm banking when i'm 90 that the Ivy isn't the same size

 

[TerryD]

Most of the ND fans I’ve met aren’t even Catholic. They’re just front runner wannabes. They follow the Yankees, whoever the NBA team du jour is, and ND.

I am Irish Catholic, hate the Yankees (Pirates fan here) and hate the NBA (haven't watched it since 1985).

In 66 years on this Earth, I have met a lot of fellow ND fans.

About 98% of them were Catholic.

But, you may know more on this subject than I do.

 

[longtimefan]

I am Irish Catholic, hate the Yankees (Pirates fan here) and hate the NBA (haven't watched it since 1985).

In 66 years on this Earth, I have met a lot of fellow ND fans.

About 98% of them were Catholic.

But, you may know more on this subject than I do.

Well, they aren't all like Richard Kiley in "Goodbar".

 

[Hoo's That]

I don't think Hopkins has ambitions to go D-I in any sport beyond lax.

They don't, but it would be a possibility if they were forced to move up.

 

[All4SU]

I am Irish Catholic, hate the Yankees (Pirates fan here) and hate the NBA (haven't watched it since 1985).

In 66 years on this Earth, I have met a lot of fellow ND fans.

About 98% of them were Catholic.

But, you may know more on this subject than I do.

I may not know more, but I know what I know. BTW, I’m Catholic. I used to watch baseball, but an obnoxious Yankees fan drove me away. Most of the ND fans I’ve met have been tools, present company excluded.

 

[TerryD]

I may not know more, but I know what I know. BTW, I’m Catholic. I used to watch baseball, but an obnoxious Yankees fan drove me away. Most of the ND fans I’ve met have been tools, present company excluded.

I have only met one Syracuse fan in my entire life.

That was Texan Mark and he is a good guy.

 

[Bayside44]

I have only met one Syracuse fan in my entire life.

That was Texan Mark and he is a good guy.

We now know you live under a rock.

 

[All4SU]

I have only met one Syracuse fan in my entire life.

That was Texan Mark and he is a good guy.

Well, the truth is Mark is the only good SU fan. That’s why we make him the front man and all of us hang out behind him.

 

[TerryD]

We now know you live under a rock.

I lived in Southwestern Pa. for 26 years, South Louisiana for 36 years and Southwestern Virginia for four years now.

I was a lawyer for 32 years and travelled all over the country. Mark is the only Syracuse fan I have ever met in person.