ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[pokercuse08]

The ACC "owns" the GoR Anyone who leaves the ACC before the GoR expires in 2036 owes the ACC a huge check as an exit fee, PLUS the departing team must sign over all their TV money from the new conference to the ACC. so any team leaving before the expiration better have some really deep pockets lined up to pay the exit fee and fund the program by replacing the lost TV money.

What's ESPN's interest in this, though? I mean, hypothetically let's say the ACC were to add UT Permian Basin and St. Anselm, and lose FSU and Clemson. Surely, ESPN would be entitled to something based on the drop in quality TV inventory?

I thought it was the exit fee went to the ACC to be split up by schools, and the TV rights were still held by the ACC and thus, through the end of the contract, ESPN. So all of FSU's home games, including SEC/B1G conference games, would be on ESPN. Then the media money they got in the new conference, if any, would go to the ACC to split up. But given that their media rights wouldn't be theirs, the new conference probably wouldn't give them money until the media rights were available.

 

[pokercuse08]

How? Nobody has figured out how to break the GOR and exit fees. The remaining schools have no incentive to allow either team leave early. What is the magic method that teams and teams of legal eagles cannot figure out but internet wannabe contract and entertainment attorneys have solved?

Wasn't there some discussion on here about the conference possibly being dissolved with a simple majority vote, and that dissolving the GOR?

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Stanford, Cal, and SMU come in without voting rights for a period of several years. That would POSSIBLY (because we don't know if it can actually be dissolved this way) mean that you only needed eight votes to dissolve the conference. It's fairly easy to count to eight teams the B1G and SEC would take. Four they definitely want, you can very reasonably get them to six to eight, so they may only have to take like two extra teams they may or may not actually want in order to get the ACC to dissolve itself.

But that's all a big IF, because we don't know if that's actually how dissolving the conference works - and it may come down to a court case (or two or three). You'd also have to have FOX and ESPN negotiate over some of the media rights to make it a clean break. FOX would probably have to pay ESPN for the rights of the schools that go to the B1G.

But it's all at least feasible, and if there's enough extra money for FOX and ESPN to make over the next ~decade by doing it now, they'll try to find a way.

 

[Hoo's That]

What's ESPN's interest in this, though? I mean, hypothetically let's say the ACC were to add UT Permian Basin and St. Anselm, and lose FSU and Clemson. Surely, ESPN would be entitled to something based on the drop in quality TV inventory?

I thought it was the exit fee went to the ACC to be split up by schools, and the TV rights were still held by the ACC and thus, through the end of the contract, ESPN. So all of FSU's home games, including SEC/B1G conference games, would be on ESPN. Then the media money they got in the new conference, if any, would go to the ACC to split up. But given that their media rights wouldn't be theirs, the new conference probably wouldn't give them money until the media rights were available.

Para 1 - I think they could demand a "look-in" and cut the contract payout.

Para 2 - Exactamente. I was incorrect about the payout from their new conference, the ACC and ESPN would hold the rights to broadcast any departee's home games. It wouldn't really affect a departure to the SEC since ESPN holds their rights, but it would be a big hurt to the B1G since their contract is with Fox.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Wasn't there some discussion on here about the conference possibly being dissolved with a simple majority vote, and that dissolving the GOR?

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Stanford, Cal, and SMU come in without voting rights for a period of several years. That would POSSIBLY (because we don't know if it can actually be dissolved this way) mean that you only needed eight votes to dissolve the conference. It's fairly easy to count to eight teams the B1G and SEC would take. Four they definitely want, you can very reasonably get them to six to eight, so they may only have to take like two extra teams they may or may not actually want in order to get the ACC to dissolve itself.

But that's all a big IF, because we don't know if that's actually how dissolving the conference works - and it may come down to a court case (or two or three). You'd also have to have FOX and ESPN negotiate over some of the media rights to make it a clean break. FOX would probably have to pay ESPN for the rights of the schools that go to the B1G.

But it's all at least feasible, and if there's enough extra money for FOX and ESPN to make over the next ~decade by doing it now, they'll try to find a way.

No you cannot dissolve with 8.

There aren’t 8 schools that want to leave right now. At best you have FSU, Clemson, Miami. The rest of the schools rather be in the ACC until it is no longer feasible.

 

[Toga]

No you cannot dissolve with 8.

There aren’t 8 schools that want to leave right now. At best you have FSU, Clemson, Miami. The rest of the schools rather be in the ACC until it is no longer feasible.

As someone previously mentioned, seems impossible you need 75% to add a team but only 50% to dissolve.

 

[javadoc]

Yeah, there’s no way to run a competitive football program when a school is only making $40-50 million a year in media rights. And has a bottomless pit of booster money.

Do people even hear themselves?

Who gives a crap if Indiana and Ole Miss make more media money? There’s like 8 programs in those 2 conferences that Clemson competes with for national HS recruits and big name transfers. They can’t hoard all of them.

We are so through the looking glass with this nonsense.

Believe me I have said the same thing (more or less), and it's frustrating, but the end game is when the courts say that you can't stop teams from paying the players directly, and then it's going to matter how much roster budget a school has.

 

[pokercuse08]

Para 1 - I think they could demand a "look-in" and cut the contract payout.

Para 2 - Exactamente. I was incorrect about the payout from their new conference, the ACC and ESPN would hold the rights to broadcast any departee's home games. It wouldn't really affect a departure to the SEC since ESPN holds their rights, but it would be a big hurt to the B1G since their contract is with Fox.

So in theory, if the SEC takes FSU and Clemson... ESPN still holds those schools' media rights at the current value (which would become a huge bargain in the SEC), but it gets to demand a look-in at the ACC and lower those contract payouts. This could be a huge savings for ESPN. So then you start to wonder, would ESPN be so interested in doing something like this with a handful of schools the SEC would take, that it might cut a deal with FOX on those media rights to let them take enough schools to the B1G to dissolve the ACC?

 

[pokercuse08]

There aren’t 8 schools that want to leave right now. At best you have FSU, Clemson, Miami. The rest of the schools rather be in the ACC until it is no longer feasible.

Sorry if this comes off as rude, but this right here shows that you don't understand any of what's going on. Every single team in the ACC would LOVE to leave for the B1G or SEC as early as possible. Every. Single. One.

You get more money, and you're done with the conference realignment carousel and guaranteed to be in a power conference at the end. It's an absolute no brainer.

Schools may wish it wasn't going on, or wish they didn't have to be put into this positions, sure. But if that offer came and leaving was feasible in terms of the GOR and such, every single one would jump on it in a millisecond.

 

[DaCuse]

Sorry if this comes off as rude, but this right here shows that you don't understand any of what's going on. Every single team in the ACC would LOVE to leave for the B1G or SEC as early as possible. Every. Single. One.

You get more money, and you're done with the conference realignment carousel and guaranteed to be in a power conference at the end. It's an absolute no brainer.

Schools may wish it wasn't going on, or wish they didn't have to be put into this positions, sure. But if that offer came and leaving was feasible in terms of the GOR and such, every single one would jump on it in a millisecond.

Notre Dame disagrees with this.

 

[pokercuse08]

Notre Dame disagrees with this.

Notre Dame isn't in the ACC for football.

 

[Phillymoose]

Sorry if this comes off as rude, but this right here shows that you don't understand any of what's going on. Every single team in the ACC would LOVE to leave for the B1G or SEC as early as possible. Every. Single. One.

You get more money, and you're done with the conference realignment carousel and guaranteed to be in a power conference at the end. It's an absolute no brainer.

Schools may wish it wasn't going on, or wish they didn't have to be put into this positions, sure. But if that offer came and leaving was feasible in terms of the GOR and such, every single one would jump on it in a millisecond.

The only way the 'dissolve' scenario is realistic is if the SEC and BiG collude and time the raid on the ACC so that the leavers = 75% of the conference. In that extremely unlikely scenario, there would no doubt be legal action with complicated arguments in collusion, antitrust and tortious interference etc.

 

[pokercuse08]

The only way the 'dissolve' scenario is realistic is if the SEC and BiG collude and time the raid on the ACC so that the leavers = 75% of the conference. In that extremely unlikely scenario, there would no doubt be legal action with complicated arguments in collusion, antitrust and tortious interference etc.

Yeah, I agree. But it's also possible that enough money would get thrown at the last few schools to get them to go quietly. But who knows? The timing and exact way this plays out is still TBD. It's possible a lot gets done in a backroom in a couple years to speed up the remaining few moves.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Notre Dame isn't in the ACC for football.

But they have a vote.

Back to your point I agree. The problem is that the B18 and SEC don’t want most of the ACC schools. Sure SU would like to be in the B18 instead, but we don’t have an invite.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Chris02M]

Can anyone explain why the ACC finds SMU the least bit attractive? A small private school that delivers no eyeballs. I don't get it.

Accn subs for Texas and they are ok getting no tv money for years

 

[Orangezoo]

Sorry if this comes off as rude, but this right here shows that you don't understand any of what's going on. Every single team in the ACC would LOVE to leave for the B1G or SEC as early as possible. Every. Single. One.

You get more money, and you're done with the conference realignment carousel and guaranteed to be in a power conference at the end. It's an absolute no brainer.

Schools may wish it wasn't going on, or wish they didn't have to be put into this positions, sure. But if that offer came and leaving was feasible in terms of the GOR and such, every single one would jump on it in a millisecond.

That's banking on a more than a few assumptions that are questionable. I think you overvalue your math in regards to modeling out the $$ as I mentioned previously. If everyone wanted out so badly and felt the move would be a home run then what are they waiting for? If every school felt they could snag that opportunity then they would find a legal way as a total conference to dissolve the league.

Also this doesn't guarantee anything in terms of realignment being over. Once again you are heavy on the assumptions here. The consolidation model creates a system that mimics European Soccer even if it's unofficial. Two monster leagues becomes unsustainable and ultimately everyone takes a much smaller check or teams get booted or pushed out on a tiered payout model essentially like relegation. Then you really start losing more viewers and markets.

Don't forget that we are in a migration to pay for play more than any pride associated with what school you play for. Many Cfb fans won't hang around for the NFL minor leagues.

Youth participation is also down btw. 100k ( 9 pct) vs what it was back in 2010. Everything starts trending the wrong direction for the sport with this approach.

 

[Orangefizz]

Can anyone explain why the ACC finds SMU the least bit attractive? A small private school that delivers no eyeballs. I don't get it.

Isn’t it obvious? Since SMU is willing to come in with no media rights payment that money can be re-distributed to the athletic success initiative to incentivize the top performers with additional payouts

 

[kcsu]

Can anyone explain why the ACC finds SMU the least bit attractive? A small private school that delivers no eyeballs. I don't get it.

Read ...Dallas...ESPN...Cable ...Texas...

 

[BlazeOrange]

Doesn't the PAC still technically exist with 4 (soon to be two?) teams?

That would seem to imply that dissolving would require a unanimous vote, even in their situation which isn't mucked up by a media contract. Someone posted earlier in the thread that ESPN would still have a claim to something even if everyone left.

So, as long as someone wants/has to stick it out, the conference identity would remain and the GOR should apply. Once an exodus begins, the holdouts can divvy up the buyouts but will also be subject to look-ins and reductions in ESPN money.

 

[orangecuse]

This is a couple years old and includes most of the big guys but it's also a good example of the perceptions that come about you noted. You can spend a lot of money and not see the results as compared to your peers.

Top 25 highest spending college football programs in the nation

Sportico compiled the data for every college athletics department to compare spending at each one, from Ohio State all the way down to ULM.

www.on3.com

Indeed! Look no further than those damn Yankees!

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Doesn't the PAC still technically exist with 4 (soon to be two?) teams?

That would seem to imply that dissolving would require a unanimous vote, even in their situation which isn't mucked up by a media contract. Someone posted earlier in the thread that ESPN would still have a claim to something even if everyone left.

So, as long as someone wants/has to stick it out, the conference identity would remain and the GOR should apply. Once an exodus begins, the holdouts can divvy up the buyouts but will also be subject to look-ins and reductions in ESPN money.

Same thing happened to CUSA going from 14 down to 4.

Even if just Wake is left, they can always rebuild the ACC with the exit fees. What legal grounds would a school have to not pay the exit fee?

 

[pokercuse08]

If everyone wanted out so badly and felt the move would be a home run then what are they waiting for?

The offers. I think it's safe to conclude that whatever percentage of the ACC is needed to vote to dissolve it, that percentage has not been offered B1G/SEC membership.

 

[Orangezoo]

The offers. I think it's safe to conclude that whatever percentage of the ACC is needed to vote to dissolve it, that percentage has not been offered B1G/SEC membership.

That's the easy answer sure. I still think you are missing the mark on the bigger picture. No one is looking at this with blinders on chasing a pot of gold that's full of fools gold. Thus your comment of others not getting it is off vase.

College programs have their share of questionable decision makers at the helm but they are not all naive.

 

[Scooch]

Read ...Dallas...ESPN...Cable ...Texas...

I sincerely hope no conference is making decisions based on the long term viability of cable TV.

 

[cuse62]

I actually read all 273 pages of this, I will put it as politely as I can, garbage. Given the fact that Florida State and Clemson are out as soon as possible, among other schools, why would the rest of the conference give incentives to those schools. Why take money out of their pocket; and give it to schools that aren’t staying?