ACC Tournament projection 5.0 w/who we want to win this week.

[Knicks411]

This scenario generator is fantastic. I've been assuming we're likely to get into the 8-9 game, I really would prefer matching up with Va tech or Miami as opposed to Duke or Virginia.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm messing around with this thing. Let's first assume we win on Saturday. I could be wrong, but I believe these games don't affect our seeding: Clemson vs NC State, Ga tech vs Pitt, Clemson at BC. (If this is wrong, someone jump in).

That leaves the following games

FSU @ Duke
BC @ ND
Lville @ Wake (I am fairly certain this one doesn't matter either, but not 100% on it)
Miami @ FSU
ND @ LVille
Duke @ UNC
Pitt @ UVA
Wake @ Va tech

For the sake of myself, I'm going to give ND the win against BC, and UVA the win over Pitt.

If you assume all of the home teams win (I think they'll all be favored, with the exception of Wake), you get SU in the 8-9 game with Miami.

If you change this and give all the favorites a win (So I'm giving Lville a win instead of Wake) you get SU still in the 8-9 game with Miami. The main difference being Lville moves from the 4 to a 2 with a win.

The chalk probably isn't going to play. FSU and Duke tonight is a pretty big one, I heard Jefferson and Allen may or may not play, and even if they do, they won't be at 100% I would imagine. So let's keep all the favorites winning, but instead FSU beats Duke. This puts us as the 7, probably facing Ga Tech again in the second round, leading to a matchup with Florida State.

I could do a million scenarios, and none of us really wants that. My main concern, as I've said, is I want to avoid Duke and UVA in the 8-9 game and I'd much r ather prefer Tech or Miami. I'm going to root for FSU tonight over Duke, because that keeps the 7 spot in play. (A really big game is Miami @ FSU on Saturday; we really want FSU to win that one, as far as I can tell)

 

[Cuse23]

IF FSU can win at Duke (possibly without Allen and/or Jefferson) AND the top two seeds win at home (UNC vs Duke, and FSU vs Miami) AND we beat GT, then we'll be the 7 seed. Doesn't seem that far fetched.

 

[Cusefan0307]

IF FSU can win at Duke (possibly without Allen and/or Jefferson) AND the top two seeds win at home (UNC vs Duke, and FSU vs Miami) AND we beat GT, then we'll be the 7 seed. Doesn't seem that far fetched.

That's why I'm hoping for.

 

[tommyt330]

That generator is outstanding.

We need two of the following to happen to get away from UNC & the 8-9 game:

- Pitt beats UVA
- Duke loses out (to FSU & UNC)
- FSU beats Miami
- Wake beats VT

Any combination of two of those gets us out of the 8-9 nooner.

All of this assuming we can knock off GT on Saturday.

 

[Knicks411]

IF FSU can win at Duke (possibly without Allen and/or Jefferson) AND the top two seeds win at home (UNC vs Duke, and FSU vs Miami) AND we beat GT, then we'll be the 7 seed. Doesn't seem that far fetched.

As far as I can tell (and I can't stress enough how not sure I am about this) the two most important games for us are

1) our game (duh)
2) Miami at FSU. If we win, we can't fall lower than 9th. If Miami loses, we end up tied with them, and we perform well in every tiebreaker with them. Which means Miami likely finishes 9th, and even if we don't move up to 7, we at least get Miami in the 8-9 and avoid Duke or UVA.

(It's funny, a lot of people want to avoid the 8-9. Obviously I would rather move up to 7, but I really don't wan tto see Duke or UVA in a game we may need to win. And i know we've beaten them both. I just think they are way better than the other options)

 

[Tom K.]

Would love to lock up No 7. for the night games.

But as long as we lock up Top 9 with a win on Saturday then I can breathe easy because I've already booked a flight to NYC for Tuesday night lol.

 

[CorduroyG]

if fsu beats duke i think we'll avoid the 8-9 game, thats the biggest game.

 

[Knicks411]

if fsu beats duke i think we'll avoid the 8-9 game, thats the biggest game.

If FSU beats Duke, but then Duke beats UNC, we're back in there. Probably won't happen, but you never know. If FSu beats Duke, Duke loses to UNC, but Miami beats FSU, we're in the 8-9 vs Duke

That all assumes we beat Gtech Sat.

 

[longtimefan]

If FSU beats Duke, but then Duke beats UNC, we're back in there. Probably won't happen, but you never know. If FSu beats Duke, Duke loses to UNC, but Miami beats FSU, we're in the 8-9 vs Duke

So, we need two Duke losses, and one Miami loss. Or, more succinctly--GO FSU!!

 

[Knicks411]

So, we need two Duke losses, and one Miami loss. Or, more succinctly--GO FSU!!

Yes? Man there's so much going on.

If Duke wins each of their last 2, and FSU beats Miami, we're in the 8-9 vs Miami.

It definitely looks like a Duke win tonight makes the 8-9 game significantly more likely, with the question probably being Miami or UVA.

 

[kirbivore]

If anyone ever questions the depth of the ACC, just inform them that the 8/9 game is likely to be Duke vs Syracuse... Ridiculous.

That could set a national record for early session attendance the day before the quarterfinal round in any conference tourney.

 

[kirbivore]

So, we need two Duke losses, and one Miami loss. Or, more succinctly--GO FSU!!

Go 'Noles!

 

[blust2i3d4]

That generator is outstanding.

We need two of the following to happen to get away from UNC & the 8-9 game:

- Pitt beats UVA
- Duke loses out (to FSU & UNC)
- FSU beats Miami
- Wake beats VT

Any combination of two of those gets us out of the 8-9 nooner.

All of this assuming we can knock off GT on Saturday.

Of the four, the most likely is that Pitt beats UVA. The style of Pitt makes them likely to do so. Also the wins over UVA and GTech to get NCAA tournament bid is a great motivation. I give this 55% of the possibility. Duke losing two is 33%. The other two is 40%.

 

[MickGoCuse5]

Of the four, the most likely is that Pitt beats UVA. The style of Pitt makes them likely to do so. Also the wins over UVA and GTech to get NCAA tournament bid is a great motivation. I give this 55% of the possibility. Duke losing two is 33%. The other two is 40%.

Pitt beating UVA @ UVA is a 55% chance of happening?? Not so sure about that...

 

[Madbiker]

The chances of Duke having a 3 game losing streak (it's 2 games now)...slim and fat.
Hamilton vs K? At Cameron yet?

 

[MSOrange]

Leonard Hamilton's team coming through in the clutch once again...in fantasy land. We were for Florida State right? I lost track.

 

[orangenirvana]

My early NCAA Tourney guarantee - Florida State will lose in the first round.

 

[Knicks411]

Ok so Duke looks like they're going to hang on. Assuming we win, it looks like it's going to come down to the FSU Miami game. If FSU wins, it's probably us and Miami, if Miami wins, us and UVA.

 

[orangenirvana]

Ok so Duke looks like they're going to hang on. Assuming we win, it looks like it's going to come down to the FSU Miami game. If FSU wins, it's probably us and Miami, if Miami wins, us and UVA.

I don't see UVA losing at home to Pitt. We're locked into the 8-9 game best case scenario now.

 

[Alsacs]

Our only hope to avoid the 8-9 game is for FSU to
Beat Miami and Pitt beat Virginia.

 

[jdubs30]

I don't mind seeing Miami - I'd like to avoid UVA. It just sucks knowing if we win, we'd get UNC on Thursday; we'd have little to no shot in that game.

 

[jdubs30]

Also - logic says eventually JB will win a game in the ACCT...

 

[Briancuse]

Our only hope to avoid the 8-9 game is for FSU to
Beat Miami and Pitt beat Virginia.

Its probably not going to happen, but crazier things have happened.

 

[Madbiker]

Pitt chocking it late against Ga Tech. How come everyone can put Pitt away except us?