ACC Tournament Projections 3.0

[jncuse]

I wonder if we could even get to a 5 with a 5-1 finish? I guess it depends on what we do in DC, but to get to 5-1 you're going to beat Pitt at home, plus presumably @FSU and @UNC or Duke. Even setting aside taking into consideration JB missing 9 games, you'd be talking about a resume that could have 2 neutral site victories over tournament teams (assuming UConn holds onto a spot), 3 home wins over tournament teams (assuming FSU gets in) and 3 road wins at tournament teams (again, assuming FSU. If one of the 5 is Louisville it wouldn't technically be a tournament team but they'd still count). You could be talking 8 wins over teams in the field, with 5 of them coming away from home. But we're a long way from there.

I still think a 3-3 finish puts us safely (though it might be a little tense on Selection Sunday) into the dance. That's 10-8 in the league, and we'd have to add either a win over Pitt or FSU to get to 3. So I think we'd be ok.

Absolutely.

If we close 5-1, we will make up some ground on almost all the teams on the 5/6/7 line.

I would be surprised if we were not a 5 in that case (and we did our business in the ACC). But 5-1 is a very tall order.

 

[jncuse]

I'll say this ... we are not on the bubble if we close 3-3.

That would be 20-11 (10-8). With wins over aTm, UConn, the Bonnies, @Duke and nominal Boeheim bump (hey, they said it, but I think it'll be might small).

One bad loss (okay, it was terrible) is not going to offset a great 2-month stretch of basketball.

We might be a 9 or 10 seed, but we'd be safely in even with an opening loss in the ACC Tourney.

Agreed on everyhing. RPIForecast which has us ending 10-8, shows our projected resume at that point as:

20-11
RPI 43
5-7 vs top 50
1 bad loss

That is not a bubble resume

 

[CorduroyG]

Absolutely.

If we close 5-1, we will make up some ground on almost all the teams on the 5/6/7 line.

View attachment 55480

I would be surprised if we were not a 5 in that case (and we did our business in the ACC). But 5-1 is a very tall order.

agree, if we finish 5-1 thats a definite 5 seed resume. 12-6 in acc with a bunch of top 50 wins

 

[kirbivore]

Right now on the Bracket Matrix we are projected as a 9 seed

Noine

 

[SoBeCuse]

Hypothetically if we beat BC and lose the rest then what do we need to do in the ACC Tourney? Cat Barber (SO wish he came here) scares me on NCSU. He's borderline unstoppable and they have talent.

 

[pearl31]

Hypothetically if we beat BC and lose the rest then what do we need to do in the ACC Tourney? Cat Barber (SO wish he came here) scares me on NCSU. He's borderline unstoppable and they have talent.

hypothetically we'd then have to win 2 in the acc tourney and hope for the best... other than Cat I'd say the only real talent surrounding him is Abu and a pretty good shooter in the freshman Rowan - they're just not a very good team

 

[SoBeCuse]

hypothetically we'd then have to win 2 in the acc tourney and hope for the best... other than Cat I'd say the only real talent surrounding him is Abu and a pretty good shooter in the freshman Rowan - they're just not a very good team

Right. Yeah, tend to agree. Still, if they put a game together like against Miami then we could be in trouble. They are capable of really blitzing anyone because they score easily, imo.

 

[721Comstock]

It's bye. Not buy.

Although with Duke and all their favorable officiating and timing, it's probably buy.

Amazing. God bless Anerica.

 

[Marsh01]

It's bye. Not buy. Although with Duke and all their favorable officiating and timing, it's probably buy. Amazing. God bless Anerica.

Yea i know. I rushed it and didnt catch it on the spell check

 

[Alsacs]

UVA-Duke and Louisville-Notre Dame playing right now and could help the Orange move up the ACC standing