Adjusting the Ceiling

[cuse309]

I've always said that Syracuse could never become a 9+ wins per year kind of team. Heck in our "heyday" between 81-2004 (the Coach Mac and P years), we only managed 10 wins 4 times. Throw in the fact that we're in one of the toughest division, and lagging on resources compared to peer schools, attendance issues, and recruiting limitations, and a perennial 9+ wins seemed like a pipe dream. I was going to be happy to be a team that won 6+ every year, and got a bowl game. Maybe some years finish in the top 25. That was how I viewed our ceiling.
Now? We're only in year 3 of Babers. Despite the fact that we haven't improved recruiting drastically, despite the fact that we have no traditional running game, and despite the fact that our defense gets picked apart like a bloated zebra carcass on the Serengeti, we have a legit shot at 9, even 10 wins this year. Yes, the down ACC year certainly helped us, but remember, this cake isn't done baking. Our defense will improve. So much young talent, it's hard to imagine it won't. Our running game will improve. Adams, Howard, and Neal next year is exciting. That's really going to allow Tommy to shred the secondary. Although I just don't see our recruiting ever really becoming dramatically different, I do think we can get into that 25-35 range. I think Dino and his staff have a real eye for identifying offensive talent to fit his scheme despite what the ranking services may say. That's more important.
So if we're looking at a 8-4, 9-3, 10-2, type of season this year with our half baked cake, why can't we be a perennial top 10, 9 to 11 wins per year kind of team when everything is done cooking?

 

[Nicknack]

We really need to at least split the next four games. That would get us to 8-4 with an opportunity to finish with a 9-4 record after the bowl win. Of course I'll take more, but a 9-4 record really seems likely at this point and would set us up very well going into next season along with recruiting, changing the culture, increasing attendance at home games, etc.

 

[sufandu]

I think a ceiling similar to 87-98 is realistic. I excluded 2001 just because there was a lot that was average or below average on that team that Freeney made up for. He was good for 5 wins that year.

Fwiw if the '80's and '90's had 12 regular season games that included a FCS cupcake instead of the 11 they had, it's likely we have 10 win seasons '95-'97, taking us to 8 in the Mac/P era instead of 5.

 

[cuse309]

I think a ceiling similar to 87-98 is realistic. I excluded 2001 just because there was a lot that was average or below average on that team the Freeney made up for. He was good for 5 wins that year.

Fwiw if the '80's and '90's had 12 regular season games that included a FCS cupcake instead of the 11 they had, it's likely we have 10 win seasons '95-'97, taking us to 8 in the Mac/P era instead of 5.

Excellent point.

 

[dollarbill44]

I've just never liked talk of ceilings. It's very limiting and not fun to me. There are reasonable expectations for what constitutes an average season but, as a fan, I like to go into every season thinking we have a chance to win every game if things break right.

 

[Trueblue25]

I believe our ceiling is a 9 to 10 win team annually (as the atlantic’s top heavy and we seem to have reevaluated our ooc scheduling) with a chance to win the atlantic and do something special every few years

 

[OttoinGrotto]

This is where smart scheduling matters. And we have that working in our favor for what looks like the majority of the next few seasons.

This is also where identity and having a regional flavor matters. We're going to be a fun team to play for. Who else in the NE looks like a fun place to play right now? Penn State will always recruit well (even though that program should have been ended), Rutgers is a pit, UCONN will never matter again, Buffalo isn't in a mjaor conference, Maryland lurks and is a mess, BC is meathead, and Pitt feels nondescript.

The opportunity is there.

 

[gbo]

I've always said that Syracuse could never become a 9+ wins per year kind of team. Heck in our "heyday" between 81-2004 (the Coach Mac and P years), we only managed 10 wins 4 times. Throw in the fact that we're in one of the toughest division, and lagging on resources compared to peer schools, attendance issues, and recruiting limitations, and a perennial 9+ wins seemed like a pipe dream. I was going to be happy to be a team that won 6+ every year, and got a bowl game. Maybe some years finish in the top 25. That was how I viewed our ceiling.
Now? We're only in year 3 of Babers. Despite the fact that we haven't improved recruiting drastically, despite the fact that we have no traditional running game, and despite the fact that our defense gets picked apart like a bloated zebra carcass on the Serengeti, we have a legit shot at 9, even 10 wins this year. Yes, the down ACC year certainly helped us, but remember, this cake isn't done baking. Our defense will improve. So much young talent, it's hard to imagine it won't. Our running game will improve. Adams, Howard, and Neal next year is exciting. That's really going to allow Tommy to shred the secondary. Although I just don't see our recruiting ever really becoming dramatically different, I do think we can get into that 25-35 range. I think Dino and his staff have a real eye for identifying offensive talent to fit his scheme despite what the ranking services may say. That's more important.
So if we're looking at a 8-4, 9-3, 10-2, type of season this year with our half baked cake, why can't we be a perennial top 10, 9 to 11 wins per year kind of team when everything is done cooking?

I don't think 9-11 wins a year is realistic. It is extremely difficult for teams to average that. Hardly anyone averages double digit win seasons. I think your wheel house is 8-9 wins with a 10+ sprinkled in every now and then.

 

[Faegan]

I just want to be in the Top 25 regularly with a few special seasons. I just picture God with a lightning bolt in his hand warning me not to be the greedy bastard I was in the Graves/McNabb era. I have repented for my sins and have vowed not to return to the error of my ways.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Just get me to a bowl game relatively consistently.

 

[cuse309]

I don't think 9-11 wins a year is realistic. It is extremely difficult for teams to average that. Hardly anyone averages double digit win seasons. I think your wheel house is 8-9 wins with a 10+ sprinkled in every now and then.

I'll take it.

 

[sufandu]

I don't think 9-11 wins a year is realistic. It is extremely difficult for teams to average that. Hardly anyone averages double digit win seasons. I think your wheel house is 8-9 wins with a 10+ sprinkled in every now and then.

You're probably right but prior to 2011 the same would have been said of Clemson. If Dino decides this is his home for a decade+ we may be fortunate enough to approach a run like you guys are in.

Remember, we're talking ceiling, not minimum expectations.

 

[Finwad32]

Being on sidelines, I've found that in the game of football, nothing is unattainable. The game is completely unpredictable.

Does that mean Alabama wont beat Tuskeegee? No, what that means is anything can happen. And, oftentimes, once certain things happen, it sets into motion alternative events that would've been previously unpredictable.

So although it's pretty easily recognizable whether a team is good or bad from pretty early on, how good and how bad are usually extremely unpredictable. The ebb & flow of a season is so dependent on individual occurrences that just cannot be predicted or foreseen.

Ceilings don't exist in my book and neither do basements. A team capable of 10 wins can win 3 through a variety of circumstances and vice versa.

As I get older, the more value I put in stressing less over the minutia and enjoying the ride. You coach the hell out of the minutia though, and let the chips fall where they may.

For instance, I've seen beautiful passes that fly two feet past the outstretched arms of a wide receiver that flew long because of a wind gust that occurred as the ball was snapped. Without that wind, it's a beautifully executed play. Unpredictable event. Things like that happen on nearly every snap, and it usually balances out for good or for bad depending on how good and bad each team is. But, under the right circumstances, and coincidences, anything can happen.

I've been on staffs that brought teams of small school kids in communities of less than 3,500 to state championships against NYC schools that were joint community and hand picked from the best of the best.

I've been on teams that were absolute juggernauts that lost to completely inferior opponents, absolutely maddening.

 

[gbo]

You're probably right but prior to 2011 the same would have been said of Clemson. If Dino decides this is his home for a decade+ we may be fortunate enough to approach a run like you guys are in.

Remember, we're talking ceiling, not minimum expectations.

That's fair. You may be fortunate true, but will you be able to recruit well enough to get there. That's the question.

 

[LAOrange]

I think it's been proven that a good coach will find a way to win anywhere. It's obvious the kids like playing for Dino. He's proven that he can develop athletes; and just like Boeheim, he knows how to recruit for his system. His system rewards achievement both on the field and off. HE can average 9 to 10 wins a year.

 

[All4SU]

I think a ceiling similar to 87-98 is realistic. I excluded 2001 just because there was a lot that was average or below average on that team the Freeney made up for. He was good for 5 wins that year.

Fwiw if the '80's and '90's had 12 regular season games that included a FCS cupcake instead of the 11 they had, it's likely we have 10 win seasons '95-'97, taking us to 8 in the Mac/P era instead of 5.

P’s best coaching year.

 

[All4SU]

Keep recruiting and developing the OL and DL. The rest will fall into place.

 

[sufandu]

That's fair. You may be fortunate true, but will you be able to recruit well enough to get there. That's the question.

That is a good question. How was Clemson's recruiting in the late 90's early 2000's? I'm not saying we'll ever recruit like you, but maybe we don't have to. I don't think Oregon was a top 10 recruiting team when they were a top ten team under Chip Kelly. I think we can become a top 25 recruiting program which I think could translate to frequent 10 win seasons with Dino as our coach. That would mean 3 losses which is consistent with where we were in the '90's. 10 wins isn't what it used to be.

 

[gbo]

That is a good question. How was Clemson's recruiting in the late 90's early 2000's? I'm not saying we'll ever recruit like you, but maybe we don't have to. I don't think Oregon was a top 10 recruiting team when they were a top ten team under Chip Kelly. I think we can become a top 25 recruiting program which I think could translate to frequent 10 win seasons with Dino as our coach. That would mean 3 losses which is consistent with where we were in the '90's. 10 wins isn't what it used to be.

Probably fringe top 25 but I honestly don't know. I was too young to care haha. It's true 10 wins isn't what it used to be but very few teams accomplish that constantly.

 

[cuse309]

That is a good question. How was Clemson's recruiting in the late 90's early 2000's? I'm not saying we'll ever recruit like you, but maybe we don't have to. I don't think Oregon was a top 10 recruiting team when they were a top ten team under Chip Kelly. I think we can become a top 25 recruiting program which I think could translate to frequent 10 win seasons with Dino as our coach. That would mean 3 losses which is consistent with where we were in the '90's. 10 wins isn't what it used to be.

Per the recruiting site who's sum is 100 less than 347.
Working backward from Dabos first year as IHC
2008 9th
2007 16th
2006 14th
2005 15th
2004 44th
2003 43rd
2002 29th
2001 19th
2000 33rd

Side note. In 2000, our class ranked 18th. Can't see further back than 2000. That was the class with 5 star Morant, and high 4 star Diamond Ferri.

 

[NKR1978]

I'd like our floor to be 5 wins in a down year. 7-9 wins most year and 10+ every 3-4 years is an attainable goal for our future.

 

[cuse309]

I'd like our floor to be 5 wins in a down year. 7-9 wins most year and 10+ every 3-4 years is an attainable goal for our future.

The Iowa plan. They always seem to be around 8 wins with the occasional 10 win season while suffering a 5 win season every 4 or 5 years.

 

[actorguy1]

I was hoping WSTM in Syracuse would broadcast the game but according to the online schedule they are showing the North Carolina game

 

[CuseLegacy]

I don't think 9-11 wins a year is realistic. It is extremely difficult for teams to average that. Hardly anyone averages double digit win seasons. I think your wheel house is 8-9 wins with a 10+ sprinkled in every now and then.

gbo afraid of a little more competition in the conference. Remember everything in life is cyclical.

 

[Nicknack]

Cyclical... no doubt. I remember saying that to my good buddy who is an FSU alumn. I remember telling him that one night in a bar as he was going on and on about how we were only a basketball school and they will always be better at football. The funny thing is that this was back in the mid 90's. He NEVER could have expected where FSU is now and where they've been the last number of years.

As for Clemson, they are no doubt, in a very nice sweet spot. However, before the Dabo years, not much was all that different between our program and theirs. No disrespect intended towards Clemson, they deserve where they are right now. I just don't think it's going to last all that much longer for some reason. Just look at history, LOTS of programs have had their run and then autocorrect back to mediocrity.