SWC75
Bored Historian
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 2
Maryland beat #21 Syracuse 63-20 = +48 points
Southern California beat #23 Stanford 45-20 = +28 points
Louisiana State beat #9 Texas 45-38 = +24 points
Army lost to #7 Michigan 21-24 = +16 points
California beat #14 Washington 20-19 = +13 points
Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points
Colorado beat #25 Nebraska 34-31 = +5 points
Tulane lost to #10 Auburn 6-24 = -2 points
Marshall lost to #24 Boise State 7-14 = -5 points
Northern Illinois lost to #13 Utah 17-35 = -5 points
Buffalo lost to #15 Penn State 13-45 = -21 points
Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points
Murray State lost to #3 Georgia 17-63 = -23 points
Rutgers lost to #20 Iowa 0-30 = -24 points
Florida Atlantic lost to #18 Central Florida 14-48 = -26 points
Western Michigan lost to #19 Michigan State 17-51 = -27 points
New Mexico State lost to #2 Alabama 10-62 = -28 points
Tennessee-Martin lost to #11 Florida 0-45 = -30 points
South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points
No. Colorado lost to #22 Washington State 17-59 = -38 points
Central Michigan lost to #17 Wisconsin 0-61 = -52 points
Nevada-Reno lost to #16 Oregon 6-77 = -61 points
Comments: The results are very early yet. It will be interesting how the Terps rating holds up as they go through the Big Ten season. I hope they do well. I don’t want to be the only ranked team they took down.
TOP 25
Maryland +48 points
Southern California +28 points
Louisiana State +24 points
Auburn +21 points
Army +16 points
U of Miami +14 points
California +13 points
Texas +13 points
Texas A&M +11 points
Colorado +5 points
Houston +4 points
Oregon +4 points
Northern Iowa +2 points
Middle Tennessee State 0 points
Louisville -1 point
Vanderbilt -1 point
Tulane -2 points
Marshall -5 points
Northern Illinois -5 points
Brigham Young -6 points
Northwestern -9 points
South Alabama -12 points
Georgia Tech -13 points
Tulsa -13 points
Duke -15 points
Louisiana Tech -15 points
The worst team so far is New Mexico State with -76 points.
Syracuse hasn’t played a team that was ranked at the time of the game yet, (although they’ve played a team that’s about to be ranked), so they have no points against ranked teams, (as opposed to Middle Tennessee State who played a 7th ranked team and lost by 19 points).
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 2
Maryland beat #21 Syracuse 63-20 = +48 points
Southern California beat #23 Stanford 45-20 = +28 points
Louisiana State beat #9 Texas 45-38 = +24 points
Army lost to #7 Michigan 21-24 = +16 points
California beat #14 Washington 20-19 = +13 points
Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points
Colorado beat #25 Nebraska 34-31 = +5 points
Tulane lost to #10 Auburn 6-24 = -2 points
Marshall lost to #24 Boise State 7-14 = -5 points
Northern Illinois lost to #13 Utah 17-35 = -5 points
Buffalo lost to #15 Penn State 13-45 = -21 points
Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points
Murray State lost to #3 Georgia 17-63 = -23 points
Rutgers lost to #20 Iowa 0-30 = -24 points
Florida Atlantic lost to #18 Central Florida 14-48 = -26 points
Western Michigan lost to #19 Michigan State 17-51 = -27 points
New Mexico State lost to #2 Alabama 10-62 = -28 points
Tennessee-Martin lost to #11 Florida 0-45 = -30 points
South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points
No. Colorado lost to #22 Washington State 17-59 = -38 points
Central Michigan lost to #17 Wisconsin 0-61 = -52 points
Nevada-Reno lost to #16 Oregon 6-77 = -61 points
Comments: The results are very early yet. It will be interesting how the Terps rating holds up as they go through the Big Ten season. I hope they do well. I don’t want to be the only ranked team they took down.
TOP 25
Maryland +48 points
Southern California +28 points
Louisiana State +24 points
Auburn +21 points
Army +16 points
U of Miami +14 points
California +13 points
Texas +13 points
Texas A&M +11 points
Colorado +5 points
Houston +4 points
Oregon +4 points
Northern Iowa +2 points
Middle Tennessee State 0 points
Louisville -1 point
Vanderbilt -1 point
Tulane -2 points
Marshall -5 points
Northern Illinois -5 points
Brigham Young -6 points
Northwestern -9 points
South Alabama -12 points
Georgia Tech -13 points
Tulsa -13 points
Duke -15 points
Louisiana Tech -15 points
The worst team so far is New Mexico State with -76 points.
Syracuse hasn’t played a team that was ranked at the time of the game yet, (although they’ve played a team that’s about to be ranked), so they have no points against ranked teams, (as opposed to Middle Tennessee State who played a 7th ranked team and lost by 19 points).
