SWC75
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started last year. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK SIX
Mississippi State beat #8 Auburn 23-9 = +32 points
Utah beat #14 Stanford 40-21 = +31 points
Florida beat #5 Louisiana State 27-19 = +29 points
Notre Dame beat #24 Virginia Tech 45-23 = +24 points
Texas beat #7 Oklahoma 48-45 = +22 points
Texas A&M beat #13 Kentucky 20-14 = +19 points
Northwestern beat #20 Michigan State 29-19 = +16 points
UCLA lost to #10 Washington 24-31 = +9 points
Florida State lost to #17 U of Miami 27-28 = +8 points
Iowa State beat #25 Oklahoma State 48-42 = +7 points
Oklahoma lost to #19 Texas 45-48 = +4 points
Kansas lost to #9 West Virginia 22-38 = +1 points
Indiana lost to #3 Ohio State 26-49 = 0 points
Arizona State lost to #21 Colorado 21-28 = -2 points
Boston College lost to #23 North Carolina State 23-28 = -2 points
Virginia Tech lost to #6 Notre Dame 23-45 = -2 points
Louisiana State lost to #22 Florida 19-27 = -4 points
Vanderbilt lost to #2 Georgia 13-41 = -4 points
Nebraska lost to #16 Wisconsin 24-41 = -7 points
Arkansas lost to #1 Alabama 31-65 = -9 points
Maryland lost to #15 Michigan 21-42 = -10 points
Southern Methodist lost to #12 Central Florida 20-48 = -14 points
Wake Forest lost to #4 Clemson 3-63 = -38 points
WEEK SEVEN
Louisiana State beat #2 Georgia 36-16 = +44 points
Iowa State beat #6 West Virginia 30-14 = +36 points
Michigan beat #15 Wisconsin 38-13 = +36 points
Michigan State beat #8 Penn State 21-17 = +22 points
Oregon beat #7 Washington 30-27 = +22 points
Southern California beat #19 Colorado 31-20 = +18 points
Pittsburgh lost to #5 Notre Dame 14-19 = +16 points
Memphis lost to #10 Central Florida 30-31 = +15 points
Virginia beat #16 U of Miami 16-13 = +13 points
Baylor lost to #9 Texas 17-23 = +11 points
Tennessee beat #21 Auburn 30-24 = +11 points
Minnesota lost to #3 Ohio State 14-30 = +7 points
Washington lost to #17 Oregon 27-30 = +6 points
Tulsa lost to #23 South Florida 24-25 = +2 points
South Carolina lost to #22 Texas A&M 23-26 = +1 points
Vanderbilt lost to #14 Florida 27-37 = -2 points
Missouri lost to #1 Alabama 10-39 = -4 points
Georgia lost to #13 Louisiana State 16-36 = -7 points
Wisconsin lost to #12 Michigan 13-38 = -11 points
Comments, (on weeks 6 & & combined): Now that teams have had a chance to build up reputations, the upsets are piling in. The points earned or lost were scattered: only Iowa State and Louisiana State played ranked teams each week. The Tigers did well with a net +40 points but the Cyclones, who aren’t consistently good but can be occasionally great, topped that with +43 points.
TOP 25 against ranked teams after week #1
Louisiana State +94 points
Notre Dame +83 points
Texas +73 points
Iowa State +54 points
Oregon +54 points
Washington +52 points
Virginia Tech +47 points
Kentucky +45 points
Texas A&M +44 points
Michigan +43 points
Ohio State +41 points
Texas Tech +41 points
Florida +39 points
Auburn +38 points
Stanford +33 points
Utah +33 points
Mississippi State +32 points
Oklahoma State +32 points
Old Dominion +27 points
Alabama +26 points
Northwestern +25 points
Michigan State +22 points
Arizona State +21 points
Penn State +21 points
Purdue +20 points
Southern California +20 points
Syracuse +19 points
Connecticut -83 points is the worst
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started last year. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK SIX
Mississippi State beat #8 Auburn 23-9 = +32 points
Utah beat #14 Stanford 40-21 = +31 points
Florida beat #5 Louisiana State 27-19 = +29 points
Notre Dame beat #24 Virginia Tech 45-23 = +24 points
Texas beat #7 Oklahoma 48-45 = +22 points
Texas A&M beat #13 Kentucky 20-14 = +19 points
Northwestern beat #20 Michigan State 29-19 = +16 points
UCLA lost to #10 Washington 24-31 = +9 points
Florida State lost to #17 U of Miami 27-28 = +8 points
Iowa State beat #25 Oklahoma State 48-42 = +7 points
Oklahoma lost to #19 Texas 45-48 = +4 points
Kansas lost to #9 West Virginia 22-38 = +1 points
Indiana lost to #3 Ohio State 26-49 = 0 points
Arizona State lost to #21 Colorado 21-28 = -2 points
Boston College lost to #23 North Carolina State 23-28 = -2 points
Virginia Tech lost to #6 Notre Dame 23-45 = -2 points
Louisiana State lost to #22 Florida 19-27 = -4 points
Vanderbilt lost to #2 Georgia 13-41 = -4 points
Nebraska lost to #16 Wisconsin 24-41 = -7 points
Arkansas lost to #1 Alabama 31-65 = -9 points
Maryland lost to #15 Michigan 21-42 = -10 points
Southern Methodist lost to #12 Central Florida 20-48 = -14 points
Wake Forest lost to #4 Clemson 3-63 = -38 points
WEEK SEVEN
Louisiana State beat #2 Georgia 36-16 = +44 points
Iowa State beat #6 West Virginia 30-14 = +36 points
Michigan beat #15 Wisconsin 38-13 = +36 points
Michigan State beat #8 Penn State 21-17 = +22 points
Oregon beat #7 Washington 30-27 = +22 points
Southern California beat #19 Colorado 31-20 = +18 points
Pittsburgh lost to #5 Notre Dame 14-19 = +16 points
Memphis lost to #10 Central Florida 30-31 = +15 points
Virginia beat #16 U of Miami 16-13 = +13 points
Baylor lost to #9 Texas 17-23 = +11 points
Tennessee beat #21 Auburn 30-24 = +11 points
Minnesota lost to #3 Ohio State 14-30 = +7 points
Washington lost to #17 Oregon 27-30 = +6 points
Tulsa lost to #23 South Florida 24-25 = +2 points
South Carolina lost to #22 Texas A&M 23-26 = +1 points
Vanderbilt lost to #14 Florida 27-37 = -2 points
Missouri lost to #1 Alabama 10-39 = -4 points
Georgia lost to #13 Louisiana State 16-36 = -7 points
Wisconsin lost to #12 Michigan 13-38 = -11 points
Comments, (on weeks 6 & & combined): Now that teams have had a chance to build up reputations, the upsets are piling in. The points earned or lost were scattered: only Iowa State and Louisiana State played ranked teams each week. The Tigers did well with a net +40 points but the Cyclones, who aren’t consistently good but can be occasionally great, topped that with +43 points.
TOP 25 against ranked teams after week #1
Louisiana State +94 points
Notre Dame +83 points
Texas +73 points
Iowa State +54 points
Oregon +54 points
Washington +52 points
Virginia Tech +47 points
Kentucky +45 points
Texas A&M +44 points
Michigan +43 points
Ohio State +41 points
Texas Tech +41 points
Florida +39 points
Auburn +38 points
Stanford +33 points
Utah +33 points
Mississippi State +32 points
Oklahoma State +32 points
Old Dominion +27 points
Alabama +26 points
Northwestern +25 points
Michigan State +22 points
Arizona State +21 points
Penn State +21 points
Purdue +20 points
Southern California +20 points
Syracuse +19 points
Connecticut -83 points is the worst
