SWC75
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We often hear teams being evaluated at the end of the season by how they did “against ranked teams”. A couple of years ago I came up with a simple system for evaluating this, one with an acknowledged flaw but which nonetheless produced interesting results so I’ll do it again this year.
The system is very simple. First I hand out points to teams based on the ranking of their opponent. If you play the #1 ranked team, you get 25 points for playing such a powerful team. You get 24 points for playing the #2 team, 23 for playing the #3 team, etc. I’ll call them schedule points. Here’s a chart to make it easy:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
That’s step one. Now we play the games and see how these teams actually do on the field. What cued me into this is that most games will be won or lost by 25 points or less, so the points involved are comparable. You just compare the point differential to the points teams have gotten for playing a ranked opponent. If they beat the ranked opponent, their points will grow by the margin of victory. If they lose, you subtract the margin of victory from the schedule points. If that reduces them to zero or less, they get zero points. I’m not going to deal with minus points, just add up the positive points earned, or else my rankings would be cluttered up with a lot of inferior teams who were below the Mendoza line because they’d gotten blown out by their ranked opponents. If you play the #1 team and lose by 21 points, you’ll get 4 points: 25 schedule points minus the 21 points you lost by. If you play the #10 team and lose by 13 points, you’ll get three points. If you play the #15 team and lose by 14 points, you’ll get nothing, (11-14 = 0 in this system).
I’ll record the points earned each week and how the teams got them and add them up over the course of the season. That will show us how each team did “against ranked teams”. Like all cumulative standings, they will sort themselves out as the season goes on and come more and more into focus. Later listings will be more meaningful than early ones as more and more teams get through the meat of their schedules. The cumulative listing should I think be less a ranking of teams than a statistic you look at in determining where to rank the teams.
WEEK THIRTEEN
Oklahoma beat #11 Oklahoma State 58-23 15 + 35 = 50 points
Ohio State beat #10 Michigan 42-13 16 + 29 = 45 points
Washington beat #20 Washington State 45-10 6 + 35 = 41 points
Florida State beat #12 Florida 27-2 14 + 25 = 39 points
Houston beat #15 Navy 52-31 11 + 21 = 32 points
Texas Christian beat #7 Baylor 28-21 19 + 7 = 26 points
Southern California beat #22 UCLA 40-21 4 + 19 = 23 points
Stanford beat #6 Notre Dame 38-36 20 + 2 = 22 points
South Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 32-37 25 – 5 = 20 points
Mississippi beat #21 Mississippi St. 38-27 5 + 11 = 16 points
Notre Dame lost to #9 Stanford 36-38 17 -2 = 15 points
Nebraska lost to #4 Iowa 20-28 22 - 8 = 14 points
Auburn lost to #2 Alabama 13-29 24-16 = 8 points
Western Michigan beat #24 Toledo 35-30 2 + 5 = 7 points
No Carolina St. lost to #14 No. Carolina 34-45 12 - 11 = 1 point
Comments: several unexpected blow-out games. Oklahoma, Ohio State and Florida State all dominated their main rivals on the road. The Sooners pushed into second place on the year with 122 points and that's without a conference championship game to potentially add to the total. The closest teams behind them who will play in a conference title game are Michigan State and Southern Cal and they are 56 points behind and unlikely to catch Oklahoma.
SEASON TOTALS
Alabama 182 points
Oklahoma 122 points
Mississippi 113 points
Michigan 101 points
UCLA 87 points
Stanford 81 points
Washington 69 points
Louisiana State 68 points
Michigan State 66 points
Southern California 66 points
Florida 64 points
Oregon 61 points
Utah 61 points
Notre Dame 56 points
Florida State 54 points
Arkansas 53 points
Minnesota 50 points
Texas A&M 50 points
Iowa 47 points
Ohio State 45 points
Oklahoma State 44 points
Texas Christian 44 points
Clemson 42 points
Navy 38 points
Houston 37 points
Temple 37 points
Arizona State 34 points
Baylor 34 points
Georgia Tech 34 points
Nebraska 34 points
Brigham Young 32 points
Indiana 32 points
Auburn 31 points
Utah State 31 points
Arizona 29 points
Tennessee 27 points
Boston College 26 points
Memphis 26 points
Vanderbilt 26 points
Louisville 25 points
Northern Illinois 25 points
South Carolina 25 points
South Florida 25 points
Purdue 23 points
Syracuse 23 points
Texas 23 points
Northwestern 22 points
Duke 20 points
Kansas State 20 points
Texas Tech 20 points
California 17 points
U of Miami 16 points
Rutgers 15 points
Western Michigan 15 points
Iowa State 14 points
Ohio State 14 points
Virginia Tech 14 points
Wake Forest 14 points
Jacksonville State 13 points
Kansas State 13 points
Florida Atlantic 12 points
Toledo 12 points
Connecticut 11 point
Mississippi State 10 points
North Carolina 10 points
Virginia 10 points
Kentucky 9 points
North Carolina State 9 points
Pittsburgh 9 points
Air Force 7 points
Iowa State 6 points
Wisconsin 6 points
Kansas 5 points
Maryland 5 points
Ball State 4 points
Central Michigan 4 points
Penn State 4 points
Southern Methodist 4 points
Memphis 1 point
The system is very simple. First I hand out points to teams based on the ranking of their opponent. If you play the #1 ranked team, you get 25 points for playing such a powerful team. You get 24 points for playing the #2 team, 23 for playing the #3 team, etc. I’ll call them schedule points. Here’s a chart to make it easy:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
That’s step one. Now we play the games and see how these teams actually do on the field. What cued me into this is that most games will be won or lost by 25 points or less, so the points involved are comparable. You just compare the point differential to the points teams have gotten for playing a ranked opponent. If they beat the ranked opponent, their points will grow by the margin of victory. If they lose, you subtract the margin of victory from the schedule points. If that reduces them to zero or less, they get zero points. I’m not going to deal with minus points, just add up the positive points earned, or else my rankings would be cluttered up with a lot of inferior teams who were below the Mendoza line because they’d gotten blown out by their ranked opponents. If you play the #1 team and lose by 21 points, you’ll get 4 points: 25 schedule points minus the 21 points you lost by. If you play the #10 team and lose by 13 points, you’ll get three points. If you play the #15 team and lose by 14 points, you’ll get nothing, (11-14 = 0 in this system).
I’ll record the points earned each week and how the teams got them and add them up over the course of the season. That will show us how each team did “against ranked teams”. Like all cumulative standings, they will sort themselves out as the season goes on and come more and more into focus. Later listings will be more meaningful than early ones as more and more teams get through the meat of their schedules. The cumulative listing should I think be less a ranking of teams than a statistic you look at in determining where to rank the teams.
WEEK THIRTEEN
Oklahoma beat #11 Oklahoma State 58-23 15 + 35 = 50 points
Ohio State beat #10 Michigan 42-13 16 + 29 = 45 points
Washington beat #20 Washington State 45-10 6 + 35 = 41 points
Florida State beat #12 Florida 27-2 14 + 25 = 39 points
Houston beat #15 Navy 52-31 11 + 21 = 32 points
Texas Christian beat #7 Baylor 28-21 19 + 7 = 26 points
Southern California beat #22 UCLA 40-21 4 + 19 = 23 points
Stanford beat #6 Notre Dame 38-36 20 + 2 = 22 points
South Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 32-37 25 – 5 = 20 points
Mississippi beat #21 Mississippi St. 38-27 5 + 11 = 16 points
Notre Dame lost to #9 Stanford 36-38 17 -2 = 15 points
Nebraska lost to #4 Iowa 20-28 22 - 8 = 14 points
Auburn lost to #2 Alabama 13-29 24-16 = 8 points
Western Michigan beat #24 Toledo 35-30 2 + 5 = 7 points
No Carolina St. lost to #14 No. Carolina 34-45 12 - 11 = 1 point
Comments: several unexpected blow-out games. Oklahoma, Ohio State and Florida State all dominated their main rivals on the road. The Sooners pushed into second place on the year with 122 points and that's without a conference championship game to potentially add to the total. The closest teams behind them who will play in a conference title game are Michigan State and Southern Cal and they are 56 points behind and unlikely to catch Oklahoma.
SEASON TOTALS
Alabama 182 points
Oklahoma 122 points
Mississippi 113 points
Michigan 101 points
UCLA 87 points
Stanford 81 points
Washington 69 points
Louisiana State 68 points
Michigan State 66 points
Southern California 66 points
Florida 64 points
Oregon 61 points
Utah 61 points
Notre Dame 56 points
Florida State 54 points
Arkansas 53 points
Minnesota 50 points
Texas A&M 50 points
Iowa 47 points
Ohio State 45 points
Oklahoma State 44 points
Texas Christian 44 points
Clemson 42 points
Navy 38 points
Houston 37 points
Temple 37 points
Arizona State 34 points
Baylor 34 points
Georgia Tech 34 points
Nebraska 34 points
Brigham Young 32 points
Indiana 32 points
Auburn 31 points
Utah State 31 points
Arizona 29 points
Tennessee 27 points
Boston College 26 points
Memphis 26 points
Vanderbilt 26 points
Louisville 25 points
Northern Illinois 25 points
South Carolina 25 points
South Florida 25 points
Purdue 23 points
Syracuse 23 points
Texas 23 points
Northwestern 22 points
Duke 20 points
Kansas State 20 points
Texas Tech 20 points
California 17 points
U of Miami 16 points
Rutgers 15 points
Western Michigan 15 points
Iowa State 14 points
Ohio State 14 points
Virginia Tech 14 points
Wake Forest 14 points
Jacksonville State 13 points
Kansas State 13 points
Florida Atlantic 12 points
Toledo 12 points
Connecticut 11 point
Mississippi State 10 points
North Carolina 10 points
Virginia 10 points
Kentucky 9 points
North Carolina State 9 points
Pittsburgh 9 points
Air Force 7 points
Iowa State 6 points
Wisconsin 6 points
Kansas 5 points
Maryland 5 points
Ball State 4 points
Central Michigan 4 points
Penn State 4 points
Southern Methodist 4 points
Memphis 1 point