SWC75
Bored Historian
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 6
Iowa State beat #3 Oklahoma 38-31 = +30 points
Michigan State beat #7 Michigan 14-10 = +23 points
North Carolina State beat #17 Louisville 39-25 = +23 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Alabama 19-27 = +17 points
West Virginia lost to #8 Texas Christian 24-31 = +11 points
Texas Christian beat #23 West Virginia 31-24 = +10 points
Wake Forest lost to #2 Clemson 14-28 = +10 points
Florida State lost to #13 Miami 20-24 = +9 points
Stanford beat #20 Utah 23-20 = +9 points
Louisiana State beat #21 Florida 17-16 = +6 points
Northwestern lost to #4 Penn State 7-31 = -2 points
Boston College lost to #16 Virginia Tech 10-23 = -3 points
Nebraska lost to #9 Wisconsin 17-38 = -4 points
Mississippi lost to #12 Auburn 23-44 = -7 points
Oregon lost to #11 Washington State 10-33 = -8 points
Vanderbilt lost to #5 Georgia 14-45 = -10 points
California lost to #6 Washington 7-38 = -11 points
Louisville lost to #24 North Carolina State 25-39 = -12 points
Oregon State lost to #14 Southern California 10-38 = -16 points
North Carolina lost to #21 Notre Dame 10-33 = -18 points
Nevada-Las Vegas lost to #19 San Diego State 10-41 = -24 points
Cincinnati lost to #25 Central Florida 23-51 = -27 points
Maryland lost to #10 Ohio State 14-62 = -32 points
Comments: Clemson is still well ahead of the field but there will be more and more power conference teams playing ranked power conference teams now that we are into the conference seasons, (except for that one week when the SEC pretends it’s September and everyone plays FCS teams). Nice comeback win for Ed Orgeron over Florida. That doesn’t get us any points here but it still polishes our reputation a litt bit. So does the NC State win over Louisville. The “unbeatable” teams remaining on our schedule suddenly look a little vulnerable. Clemson had a close game, (at the end, anyway) and may have lost their QB for the SU game. Miami will be tough but Florida State has a losing record and may be losing confidence as well. Same for Louisville, which isn’t having the big season Lamar Jackson had to have to repeat his Heisman win.
TOP 25
Clemson +87 points
Auburn +49 points
North Carolina State +43 points
Texas Christian +43 points
Alabama +40 points
Georgia +40 points
Oklahoma +39 points
Southern California +37 points
Iowa State +30 points
Michigan +25 points
Washington State +24 points
Michigan State +23 points
Virginia Tech +21 points
Iowa +20 points
Texas +19 points
Florida State +17 points
Texas A&M +17 points
Baylor +15 points
Stanford +11 points
Notre Dame +10 points
San Diego State +10 points
Wake Forest +10 points
West Virginia +9 points
Colorado State +7 points
Louisiana State +6 points
Syracuse is -8 points and Kent State is last with -64 points
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 6
Iowa State beat #3 Oklahoma 38-31 = +30 points
Michigan State beat #7 Michigan 14-10 = +23 points
North Carolina State beat #17 Louisville 39-25 = +23 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Alabama 19-27 = +17 points
West Virginia lost to #8 Texas Christian 24-31 = +11 points
Texas Christian beat #23 West Virginia 31-24 = +10 points
Wake Forest lost to #2 Clemson 14-28 = +10 points
Florida State lost to #13 Miami 20-24 = +9 points
Stanford beat #20 Utah 23-20 = +9 points
Louisiana State beat #21 Florida 17-16 = +6 points
Northwestern lost to #4 Penn State 7-31 = -2 points
Boston College lost to #16 Virginia Tech 10-23 = -3 points
Nebraska lost to #9 Wisconsin 17-38 = -4 points
Mississippi lost to #12 Auburn 23-44 = -7 points
Oregon lost to #11 Washington State 10-33 = -8 points
Vanderbilt lost to #5 Georgia 14-45 = -10 points
California lost to #6 Washington 7-38 = -11 points
Louisville lost to #24 North Carolina State 25-39 = -12 points
Oregon State lost to #14 Southern California 10-38 = -16 points
North Carolina lost to #21 Notre Dame 10-33 = -18 points
Nevada-Las Vegas lost to #19 San Diego State 10-41 = -24 points
Cincinnati lost to #25 Central Florida 23-51 = -27 points
Maryland lost to #10 Ohio State 14-62 = -32 points
Comments: Clemson is still well ahead of the field but there will be more and more power conference teams playing ranked power conference teams now that we are into the conference seasons, (except for that one week when the SEC pretends it’s September and everyone plays FCS teams). Nice comeback win for Ed Orgeron over Florida. That doesn’t get us any points here but it still polishes our reputation a litt bit. So does the NC State win over Louisville. The “unbeatable” teams remaining on our schedule suddenly look a little vulnerable. Clemson had a close game, (at the end, anyway) and may have lost their QB for the SU game. Miami will be tough but Florida State has a losing record and may be losing confidence as well. Same for Louisville, which isn’t having the big season Lamar Jackson had to have to repeat his Heisman win.
TOP 25
Clemson +87 points
Auburn +49 points
North Carolina State +43 points
Texas Christian +43 points
Alabama +40 points
Georgia +40 points
Oklahoma +39 points
Southern California +37 points
Iowa State +30 points
Michigan +25 points
Washington State +24 points
Michigan State +23 points
Virginia Tech +21 points
Iowa +20 points
Texas +19 points
Florida State +17 points
Texas A&M +17 points
Baylor +15 points
Stanford +11 points
Notre Dame +10 points
San Diego State +10 points
Wake Forest +10 points
West Virginia +9 points
Colorado State +7 points
Louisiana State +6 points
Syracuse is -8 points and Kent State is last with -64 points
