SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc., down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc.). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 6 (10/7-9/21)
Arkansas State lost to #15 Coastal Carolina 20-52 Arkansas State -21 Coastal Carolina +21
Temple lost to #5 Cincinnati 3-52 Temple -28 Cincinnati +28
Stanford lost to #22 Arizona State 10-28 Stanford -14 Arizona State +14
Texas A&M beat #1 Alabama 41-38 Texas A&M +23 Alabama -23
Georgia beat #18 Auburn 34-10 Georgia +32 both ranked
Auburn lost to #2 Georgia 10-34 Auburn 0 both ranked
Iowa beat #4 Penn State 23-20 Iowa +25 both ranked
Penn State lost to #3 Iowa 20-23 Penn State +20 both ranked
Oklahoma beat #21 Texas 55-48 Oklahoma +12 both ranked
Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 48-55 Texas +13 both ranked
Maryland lost to #7 Ohio State 17-66 Maryland -30 Ohio State +30
Nebraska lost to #9 Michigan 29-32 Nebraska +14 Michigan -14
Boise State beat #10 Brigham Young 26-17 Boise State +25 Brigham Young -25
Rutgers lost to #11 Michigan State 13-31 Rutgers -3 Michigan State +3
Mississippi beat #13 Arkansas 52-51 Mississippi +14 both ranked
Arkansas lost to #17 Mississippi 51-52 Arkansas +8 both ranked
Virginia Tech lost to #14 Notre Dame 29-32 Virginia Tech +9 Notre Dame -9
Louisiana State lost to #16 Kentucky 21-42 Louisiana State -11 Kentucky +11
Syracuse lost to #19 Wake Forest 37-40 Syracuse +4 Wake Forest -4
Vanderbilt lost to #20 Florida 0-42 Vanderbilt -36 Florida +36
Navy lost to #24 Southern Methodist 24-31 Navy -5 So Methodist +5
New Mexico lost to #25 San Diego State 7-31 New Mexico -23 San Diego State +23
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Georgia +117
Alabama +95
Iowa +89
Arkansas +54
Penn State +54
Stanford +51
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
Texas +36
West Virginia +36
Syracuse is at +4 after the Wake Forest game.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers -27 Albany none Liberty none Florida State +14 Wake Forest none Clemson +14 Virginia Tech +32 Boston College -5 Louisville -1 North Carolina State +23 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Vanderbilt at -74
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +150
Ohio State +73
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +62
Cincinnati +57
Michigan +47
Florida +39
Arizona State +38
Nebraska +33
Syracuse has not been ranked so they have had no opportunity to accumulate points on this list.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers none Albany none Liberty none Florida State none Wake Forest +5 Clemson -6 Virginia Tech -3 Boston College none Louisville none North Carolina State +4 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Notre Dame at -38.
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 6 (10/7-9/21)
Arkansas State lost to #15 Coastal Carolina 20-52 Arkansas State -21 Coastal Carolina +21
Temple lost to #5 Cincinnati 3-52 Temple -28 Cincinnati +28
Stanford lost to #22 Arizona State 10-28 Stanford -14 Arizona State +14
Texas A&M beat #1 Alabama 41-38 Texas A&M +23 Alabama -23
Georgia beat #18 Auburn 34-10 Georgia +32 both ranked
Auburn lost to #2 Georgia 10-34 Auburn 0 both ranked
Iowa beat #4 Penn State 23-20 Iowa +25 both ranked
Penn State lost to #3 Iowa 20-23 Penn State +20 both ranked
Oklahoma beat #21 Texas 55-48 Oklahoma +12 both ranked
Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 48-55 Texas +13 both ranked
Maryland lost to #7 Ohio State 17-66 Maryland -30 Ohio State +30
Nebraska lost to #9 Michigan 29-32 Nebraska +14 Michigan -14
Boise State beat #10 Brigham Young 26-17 Boise State +25 Brigham Young -25
Rutgers lost to #11 Michigan State 13-31 Rutgers -3 Michigan State +3
Mississippi beat #13 Arkansas 52-51 Mississippi +14 both ranked
Arkansas lost to #17 Mississippi 51-52 Arkansas +8 both ranked
Virginia Tech lost to #14 Notre Dame 29-32 Virginia Tech +9 Notre Dame -9
Louisiana State lost to #16 Kentucky 21-42 Louisiana State -11 Kentucky +11
Syracuse lost to #19 Wake Forest 37-40 Syracuse +4 Wake Forest -4
Vanderbilt lost to #20 Florida 0-42 Vanderbilt -36 Florida +36
Navy lost to #24 Southern Methodist 24-31 Navy -5 So Methodist +5
New Mexico lost to #25 San Diego State 7-31 New Mexico -23 San Diego State +23
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Georgia +117
Alabama +95
Iowa +89
Arkansas +54
Penn State +54
Stanford +51
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
Texas +36
West Virginia +36
Syracuse is at +4 after the Wake Forest game.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers -27 Albany none Liberty none Florida State +14 Wake Forest none Clemson +14 Virginia Tech +32 Boston College -5 Louisville -1 North Carolina State +23 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Vanderbilt at -74
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +150
Ohio State +73
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +62
Cincinnati +57
Michigan +47
Florida +39
Arizona State +38
Nebraska +33
Syracuse has not been ranked so they have had no opportunity to accumulate points on this list.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers none Albany none Liberty none Florida State none Wake Forest +5 Clemson -6 Virginia Tech -3 Boston College none Louisville none North Carolina State +4 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Notre Dame at -38.
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