Are we the St. Johns of college football?

[Opus]

I don't see it. We are in the ACC. StJohn's is in the Big East. The ACC is set up for the future. I really don't see the Big East sustaining the prominence in bball that it had with SU, UConn, and L'ville not in it anymore.

 

[SWC75]

I think we will be mediocre most of the time and good sometimes in this conference. Yes we have more revenue. it's equal to the revenue the other teams in our conference will have and they've been in the conference for a while. We will be able to recruit better in the south but the best recruits in Florida will still go to Miami and Florida State, the best Georgia recruits to Georgia and Georgia Tech, the best South Carolina recruits to South Carolina and Clemson, etc. etc. Florida State is 'back'. Miami may be back. Clemson has their best team since the 1981 national title team and Virginia Tech is still strong. We are going to have enormous trouble competing with those programs on a regular basis, although we will beat them occasionally.

When i did my study of the records and rankings of these 14 teams in the Dome Era, (1980-2012), I came up with the following average national rankings, (using a source that ranked all major college teams):

Florida State 14.03
Miami 19.67
Virginia Tech 26.33
Clemson 29.09
Boston College 44.55
Georgia Tech 47.33
North Carolina 47.79
Pittsburgh 48.33
Syracuse 48.48
Virginia 50.21
North Carolina State 50.76
Louisville 57.88
Wake Forest 69.61
Duke 81.21

There was never a single year when we had the best team in this league, even 1987 when both Miami and Florida State were better. I saw four tiers: Florida State and Miami were at the top. Clemson and Virginia Tech were next. Then came 8 teams that had mixed histories. One of them might move up into the second tier: Louisville, which has a great athletic department and is surrounded by great recruiting areas. I think the other seven will be up and won: I call them the elevator teams. Their achievement will be to be good sometimes, hopefully in years when the top teams are not at their peak and to avoid being bad. The foruth tier would be Duke and Wake Forest. The Deacons have had some success but I doubt they can sustain it.

We were in a great position in the NBE, being in a relatively weak conference that still had a BCS automatic qualification. If we could have regained the level we had from 1987-2001, we might have had a dream year when we ran the table and did so in a year when no more than one other BCS team did it. Then we would have a shot at another national title. Virginia Tech had a shot in 1999. West Virginia would have had a shot in 2007 if they could have beaten a mediocre Pitt team in their own place. Cincinnati would have played for it in 2009 if Texas hadn't gotten a second chance at a game winning field goal vs. Nebraska in the Big 12 title game.

I don't see that happening now. We aren't running the table in this conference. But we can have winning seasons, go to bowl games. But I don't see us winning this conference or winding up in even a four team playoff. We can dream but I'll be shocked if they come true.

 

[Jeremy L.]

I feel a little embarrassed when people brag about Brown or Davis or even Mcnabbb...as if other cfb fans gaf about our success from 1959.

Sadly agree. "Oh, Donovan McNabb? Well we've had Carson Palmer, John David Booty, Mark Sanchez, and Matt Barkley lol come back to us when you get somebody good."

That isn't a knock to McNabb either. Terrific quarterback obviously. But some schools get McNabb level quarterbacks every recruiting class.

 

[Jeremy L.]

Double post

 

[Jeremy L.]

I feel a little embarrassed when people brag about Brown or Davis or even Mcnabbb...as if other cfb fans gaf about our success from 1959.

Sadly agree. "Oh, Donovan McNabb? Well we've had Carson Palmer, John David Booty, Mark Sanchez, and Matt Barkley lol come back to us when you get somebody good."

That isn't a knock to McNabb either. Terrific quarterback obviously. But some schools get McNabb level quarterbacks every recruiting class.

 

[Trueblue25]

No.

Not even close.

We are on the rise to new heights.

So are they honestly. Solid recruiting.

 

[SWC75]

Double post

You were right both times.

 

[two3zone]

No.

Not even close.

We are on the rise to new heights.

Based on what? Current seasons success? A few 4 or 5 star recruits?

 

[chakka3421]

I think we will be mediocre most of the time and good sometimes in this conference. Yes we have more revenue. it's equal to the revenue the other teams in our conference will have and they've been in the conference for a while. We will be able to recruit better in the south but the best recruits in Florida will still go to Miami and Florida State, the best Georgia recruits to Georgia and Georgia Tech, the best South Carolina recruits to South Carolina and Clemson, etc. etc. Florida State is 'back'. Miami may be back. Clemson has their best team since the 1981 national title team and Virginia Tech is still strong. We are going to have enormous trouble competing with those programs on a regular basis, although we will beat them occasionally.

When i did my study of the records and rankings of these 14 teams in the Dome Era, (1980-2012), I came up with the following average national rankings, (using a source that ranked all major college teams):

Florida State 14.03
Miami 19.67
Virginia Tech 26.33
Clemson 29.09
Boston College 44.55
Georgia Tech 47.33
North Carolina 47.79
Pittsburgh 48.33
Syracuse 48.48
Virginia 50.21
North Carolina State 50.76
Louisville 57.88
Wake Forest 69.61
Duke 81.21

There was never a single year when we had the best team in this league, even 1987 when both Miami and Florida State were better. I saw four tiers: Florida State and Miami were at the top. Clemson and Virginia Tech were next. Then came 8 teams that had mixed histories. One of them might move up into the second tier: Louisville, which has a great athletic department and is surrounded by great recruiting areas. I think the other seven will be up and won: I call them the elevator teams. Their achievement will be to be good sometimes, hopefully in years when the top teams are not at their peak and to avoid being bad. The foruth tier would be Duke and Wake Forest. The Deacons have had some success but I doubt they can sustain it.

We were in a great position in the NBE, being in a relatively weak conference that still had a BCS automatic qualification. If we could have regained the level we had from 1987-2001, we might have had a dream year when we ran the table and did so in a year when no more than one other BCS team did it. Then we would have a shot at another national title. Virginia Tech had a shot in 1999. West Virginia would have had a shot in 2007 if they could have beaten a mediocre Pitt team in their own place. Cincinnati would have played for it in 2009 if Texas hadn't gotten a second chance at a game winning field goal vs. Nebraska in the Big 12 title game.

I don't see that happening now. We aren't running the table in this conference. But we can have winning seasons, go to bowl games. But I don't see us winning this conference or winding up in even a four team playoff. We can dream but I'll be shocked if they come true.

This is where I give credit to FHCDM - he took Coach Macs secret for success and started the rebuilding process right here in NY. With UConn falling back into obscurity & Rutgers about to do the same, you have to start in your own back yard as the foundation for your program - just as you pointed in your analysis of Southern teams as the very best players will most likely tend to go to the best team in their home state.

Our current coaching staff have only 1 recruit from NY - it's a slap in the face to NY high school players and coaches. If HCSS doesn't take NY seriously, then I predict we will go back into mediocrity and we will be looking for another HC in a few years.

 

[SWC75]

This is where I give credit to FHCDM - he took Coach Macs secret for success and started the rebuilding process right here in NY. With UConn falling back into obscurity & Rutgers about to do the same, you have to start in your own back yard as the foundation for your program - just as you pointed in your analysis of Southern teams as the very best players will most likely tend to go to the best team in their home state.

Our current coaching staff have only 1 recruit from NY - it's a slap in the face to NY high school players and coaches. If HCSS doesn't take NY seriously, then I predict we will go back into mediocrity and we will be looking for another HC in a few years.

Also, where is our southern windfall? The 2014 class has one guy from North Carolina and One from Tennessee, (which isn't even the ACC's footprint). They seem to be recruiting Illinois more than the south. we're not in the Big 10

 

[Eric15]

We have won two bowl games in three seasons for gosh sakes.

We're coming off an 8-5 season!

Come on!

So we lost to Clemson. Chill out.

But doesn't the fact that you put an exclamation point after "we're coming off an 8-5 season" more or less prove my point?

(Don't get me wrong, I was extremely excited and proud of how strong we finished last year). It was a great year.

 

[OrangePA]

But doesn't the fact that you put an exclamation point after "we're coming off an 8-5 season" more or less prove my point?

(Don't get me wrong, I was extremely excited and proud of how strong we finished last year). It was a great year.

If your point is that last year was a mediocre year and is the best we can do in the future, I just disagree with you.

Football and basketball are very different. The fortunes of a college BB program can change with the signing of a single player.

The development of a college football program takes time.

I believe that time is on our side in terms of the SU FB Program for the reasons I have noted.

I just don't see a comparison between SU FB and St. Johns BB for many reasons including the basic differences between the two games.

 

[Scooch]

If your point is that last year was a mediocre year and is the best we can do in the future, I just disagree with you.

Football and basketball are very different. The fortunes of a college BB program can change with the signing of a single player.

The development of a college football program takes time.

I believe that time is on our side in terms of the SU FB Program for the reasons I have noted.

I just don't see a comparison between SU FB and St. Johns BB for many reasons including the basic differences between the two games.

Well, we're in year 5 post-Robinson, so hopefully we really are moving forward.

As a comparison, Northwestern has been to 5 straight bowls and hasn't won less than 6 games since Fitzgerald's first season in 2006. So hopefully we can attain Northwestern-like success, if nothing else.

 

[Quazzum69]

There will never be a northeast football power again.

It doesn't matter how much SU spends on facilities, there are just simply not enough good players to recruit. The biggest difference is that Saint John's is located near very good basketball players, unlike SU football.

Consider the 2014 top 100 ESPN football recruits:

Louisiana, a state with a population of 4.602 million in 2012, had NINE top 100 football recruits. NINE.
New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania with a combined population of nearly 47 million had TWO top 100 recruits. In other words, Louisiana produces roughly 50 times more top 100 football players per capita than the entire Northeast.

This does not even include the 101-300 ranked players (which New Jersey has a lot of) and the other extremely fertile gulf states or California. There is simply no way SU steals the best players from any of the southern or west coast teams that allows kids to play at their dream school in much better weather in front of way more fans. Any facility that SU could build, another school probably already has, times 10.

The north can probably realistically support just a handful of really good teams in today's world. SU would basically have to overtake Ohio State and Michigan, as well as the iconic Penn State and the up-and-comers like Northwestern and Rutgers.

 

[GoSU96]

Historically strong program, relatively high on the all-times wins list, with success in the 1950s as well as the 80s/90s. Legendary players, coaches and personalities. Dwindling success and fan support throughout the 2000s through today. Difficult to fill our building unless it's a marquee opponent who will themselves bring a lot of fans. Every now and then capable of a big upset that generates excitement.

The bar of success for St. Johns is getting to the NIT and the occasional NCAA tourney bid, the bar of success for us is getting to a bowl game with hopefully the occasional 8 or 9 win season.

Is that an apt comparison?

No

 

[weakstraw]

Jason Buchanon???

Was the starting PG at Nottingham my freshman and sophomore years. Good guy, used to work out at the car part company out in GM circle. You might see him downtown playing darts.

 

[weakstraw]

Sadly agree. "Oh, Donovan McNabb? Well we've had Carson Palmer, John David Booty, Mark Sanchez, and Matt Barkley lol come back to us when you get somebody good."

That isn't a knock to McNabb either. Terrific quarterback obviously. But some schools get McNabb level quarterbacks every recruiting class.

NO USC quarterback has ever won a super bowl. McNabb never won, but USC is the pedigree.

 

[dollarbill44]

I don't think you can make any comparisons across different college sports, particularly football and hoops. We just don't know what impact the dramatic increase in sports revenue from the ACC will have on our football program.

 

[OrangeAggieArmy]

I was just wondering sort of the same thing the other night. Has there been another program that had the success we had in the late 80's and 90's that has fallen on such hard times? The one that came to mind was Colorado.

Talk amongst yourselves. No big whoop. Coffee talk.

 

[sufandu]

Was the starting PG at Nottingham my freshman and sophomore years. Good guy, used to work out at the car part company out in GM circle. You might see him downtown playing darts.

I worked with him at New Process Gear on Chrysler Drive (later New Venture Gear Drive) a few times in the mid to late '90's. I didn't know he worked at the GM plant before it closed in '93. He seemed like a very cool guy.

 

[sufandu]

Jason Buchanon???

You beat me to it.

 

[SaltineWar]

No.

Not even close.

We are on the rise to new heights.

God I wish I could believe this, but I can't. I think we had a shot to do this with Marrone.

 

[OrangePA]

God I wish I could believe this, but I can't. I think we had a shot to do this with Marrone, but I don't think Shafer is up to it.

Shafer is not the answer either way.

Money is the answer.

And the SU Football Program will now have more money to compete than it ever has.

And that will change the trajectory of the Program.

 

[dollarbill44]

I'm the most optimistic guy around, but I'm not taking about Clemson, just recent history.

I'm all ready for Saturday though and believing we will be in a bowl game again building on our future and the analogy will not be apt

You're not the most optimistic guy around. On the bright side, you're not the most pessimistic either.

Sent from my ADR6350 using Tapatalk 2

 

[mountaincuse]

You're not the most optimistic guy around. On the bright side, you're not the most pessimistic either.

Sent from my ADR6350 using Tapatalk 2

I'll take it

 

[weakstraw]

I worked with him at New Process Gear on Chrysler Drive (later New Venture Gear Drive) a few times in the mid to late '90's. I didn't know he worked at the GM plant before it closed in '93. He seemed like a very cool guy.

sufandu- sorry yes, he worked at New Process. I thought that was in GM circle. I have not lived in Cuse since 2000, so I am a little rusty. Please forgive! Not only Jason Buchanan, but Dorsey Levens was in my graduating class. My high school sports life was great between basketball & football.

 

[phil77]

Hard to compare BBall to FBall.

BBall a player is the most important. A single player can take you to the promise land.

FBall is different. Football is all about the right coach. You have to have a great coach/recruiter to be able to sustain long term success. I heard Northwestern dropped in this thread. Look no further than that. If a university (like us) makes a string of bad hires at the coaching position your football team is ruined. And all it takes to make it back is to snag that great next coach. Is Shafer that guy? I seriously have my doubts but will remain open minded.