Bases and Runs 2023 | Syracusefan.com

Bases and Runs 2023

SWC75

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Here is my belated statistical summary of the 2023 season:

This is my annual report on the baseball season, using some stats I like to use to identify the best players.

The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. (From my 2019 intro), Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.052. That’s better than Bryce Harper 0.878) but not as good as Ryon Healy (1.082). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,052 times. He didn’t do something 1.052 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.

My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that a great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?

The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs produced”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game. That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.

This year I’ve decided to add a few other stats, two of which will allow me to evaluate pitchers, too. The first one I’m calling “clutch percentage”. I’m aware that many people in baseball don’t think there is such a thing as clutch hitting. I don’t agree: I watch the games and it is completely apparent that it’s not just what you do but when you do it that counts. I’m a Mets fan and noticed, (in 2019), that Wilson Ramos was, by most measures, having a poor season:.247 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .303 slugging percentage. But he had 17 RBIs compared to 27 total bases. Divide the RBIs by total bases and his bat is driving in 63% as many runs as it’s procuring bases. Mike Trout has 16 RBIs on 48 batting bases, 33%. It’s very early and the numbers can change greatly but so far Ramos would seem to be a better clutch hitter than Trout.

I’ve always wanted to do something to evaluate pitchers. When I look at a box score, (and I’ve had occasion lately to look at Mets box scores to try to figure out the pitching), I look at the ‘BF’ (batters faced) on Baseball Reference.com. Then I look at hits, walks and hit batsmen to get the number of baserunners that were the pitcher’s fault. I divide that by the BF to get the percentage of batters that get on base off the pitcher. Then I look at earned runs and compare that to the number of these ‘earned’ baserunners. What percentage of them scored? (In 2018), Jacob DeGrom faced 835 batters, 203 of whom reached base from hits, walks or being plunked. That’s 24.3%, or .243. That was best in the National League and second best in the majors to Justin Verlander of the Astros who had .241. Jake allowed 421 earned runs from those 203 earned baserunners, or .202, the best in the majors, (Blake Snell and Trevor Bauer led the AL .215.

My data base is the top 50 players in each league in runs scored and runs batted in and the top 50 pitchers in innings pitched. For the batters, ties are broken first by games played, then by plate appearances, (the fewer of each you have, the more impressive your gross bases and runs produced are. The more you have the more impressive a clutch percentage is: you’ve maintained it longer). Pitching ties are broken by innings pitched, (the more innings you’ve pitched, the more impressive a low rate of giving up baserunners and runs is.) If there is a tie for 10th place all those tied will be listed.

American League

Bases Produced (Total Batting Bases + Walks + Steals)
Shohei Ohtani, Angels 436 in 135 games (3.23) and 599 plate appearances (.728)
Kyle Tucker, Astros 407 in 157 games (2.59) and 674 plate appearances (.604)
Bobby Witt, Royals 406 in 158 games (2.57) and 694 plate appearances (.585)
Marcus Semien, Rangers 406 in 162 games (2.51) and 753 plate appearances (.539)
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners 401 in 155 games (2.59) and 714 plate appearances (.562)
Jose Ramirez, Guardians 391 in 156 games (2.51) and 691 plate appearances (.566)
Alex Bregman, Astros 369 in 161 games (2.29) and 724 plate appearances (.510)
Rafael Devers, Red Sox 357 in 153 games (2.33) and 656 plate appearances (.544)
Adolis Garcia, Rangers 356 in 148 games (2.41) and 632 plate appearances (.563)
Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers 352 in 161 games (2.19) and 724 plate appearances (.486)

Runs Produced (Runs scored + Runs batted in – Home Runs so they don’t get counted twice)
Marcus Semien, Rangers 193 in 162 games (1.19) and 753 plate appearances (.256)
Adolis Garcia, Rangers 186 in 148 games (1.26) and 632 plate appearances (.294)
Kyle Tucker, Astros 180 in 157 games (1.15) and 674 plate appearances (.267)
Alex Bregman, Astros 176 in 161 games (1.09) and 724 plate appearances (.243)
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners 173 in 155 games (1.12) and 714 plate appearances (.242)
Bobby Witt, Royals 163 in 158 games (1.03) and 694 plate appearances (.235)
Justin Turner, Red Sox 159 in 146 games (1.09) and 626 plate appearances (.254)
Rafael Devers, Red Sox 157 in 153 games (1.03) and 656 plate appearances (.239)
Randy Arozarena, Rays 155 in 151 games (1.03) and 654 plate appearances (.237)
Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers 154 in 161 games (0.96) and 724 plate appearances (.213)
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles 154 in 150 games (1.03) and 622 plate appearances (.248)

Clutch Hitting (Runs batted in / Total Batting Bases)
Heim Jonah, Rangers 95 RBI from 200 batting bases = .475
Cedric Mullins, Orioles 74 RBI from 168 batting bases = .440
Josh Naylor, Guardians 97 RBI from 221 batting bases = .439
Jose Abreu, Astros 90 RBI from 207 batting bases = .435
Eugenio Suarez, Mariners 96 RBI from 234 batting bases = .410
Isaac Paredes, Rays 98 RBI from 240 batting bases = .408
Brandon Lowe, Rays 68 RBI from 167 batting bases = .407
Yordan Alvarez, Astros 97 RBI from 239 batting bases = .406
Adolis Garcia, Rangers 107 RBI from 282 batting bases = .379
Justin Turner, Red Sox 96 RBI from 234 batting bases = .378

On Base Percentage – Starters (Hits + walks + hit by pitch / batters faced)
Tarik Skubai, Tigers 75/310 = .242
Tyler Wells, Orioles 121/470 = .257
Gerrit Cole, Yankees 212/821 = .258
Zach Eflin, Rays 185/703 = .2632
Alex Faedo, Tigers 69/262 = .2634
Logan Gilbert, Mariners 207/770 = .2688
George Kirby, Mariners 204/757 = .2695
Tyler Glasnow, Rays 131/485 = .2701
Matt Manning, Tigers 86/316 = .272
Luis Castillo, Mariners 221/802 = .2756
(Jordan Montgomery, Rangers 74/268 = .2761)

On Base Percentage – Relief Pitchers (Hits + walks + hit by pitch / batters faced)
Robert Stephenson, Rays 26/140 = .186
Bowden Francis, Blue Jays 31/136 = .228
Jay Jackson, Blue Jays 28/116 = .241
Felix Bautista, Orioles 58/237 = .2447
Emilio Pagan, Twins 67/273 = .2454
Paul Sewald, Mariners 44/169 = .260
Ryan Pressly, Rangers 71/268 = .2649
Chris Martin, Red Sox 53/199 = .2663
Yenner Cano, Orioles 76/283 = .2686
Will Smith, Rangers 61/226 = .2699

Scoring Percentage – Starters (Earned Runs/ Hits + walks + hit by pitch)
Brad Keller, Royals 23/90 = .2555
Michael Kino, Yankees 32/125 = .2560
Sonny Gray, Twins 57/217 = .263
Tanner Bibee, Guardians 47/172 = .273
Brandon Bielak, Astros 34/122 = .2787
Gavin Williams, Guardians 30/107 = .2804
Jordan Montgomery, Rangers 21/74 = .284
Gerrit Cole, Yankees 61/212 = .2877
Kyle Bradish, Orioles 53/184 = .2880
Hyun Jin Ryum, Orioles 20/68 = .294

Scoring Percentage – Relievers (Earned Runs/ Hits + walks + hit by pitch)
Chris Martin, Red Sox 6/53 = .113
Tim Mavza, Blue Jays 9/65 = .138
Yenner Cano, Orioles 17/76 = .224
Felix Bautista, Orioles 10/58 = .172
Brian Abreu, Astros 14/78 = .179
Josh Winckowski, Red Sox 27/123= .220
Francis Bowden, Blue Jays 7/31 = .2258
Jhoan Duran, Twins 17/75 = .2267
Aaron Loup, Angels 33/87 = .230
Wandy Peralta, Yankees 17/72 = .236

National League

Bases Produced (Total Batting Bases + Walks + Steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves 536 in 159 games (3.37) and 735 plate appearances (.729)
Matt Olson, Braves 472 in 162 games (2.91) and 720 plate appearances (.656)
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers 456 in 161 games (2.83) and 730 plate appearances (.625)
Mookie Betts, Dodgers 448 in 152 games (2.95) and 693 plate appearances (.646)
Juan Soto, Padres 439 in 162 games (2.71) and 708 plate appearances (.620)
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies 403 in 160 games (2.52) and 720 plate appearances (.560)
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks 397 in 155 games (2.56) and 645 plate appearances (.616)
Austin Riley, Braves 390 in 159 games (2.45) and 715 plate appearances (.545)
Francisco Lindor, Mets 380 in 160 games (2.375) and 687 plate appearances (.553)
Trea Turner, Phillies 368 in 155 games (2.37) and 691 plate appearances (.533)

Runs Produced (Runs scored + Runs batted in – Home Runs so they don’t get counted twice)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves 214 in 159 games (1.35) and 735 plate appearances (.291)
Matt Olson, Braves 212 in 162 games (1.31) and 720 plate appearances (.294)
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers 204 in 161 games (1.27) and 730 plate appearances (.279)
Mookie Betts, Dodgers 194 in 152 games (1.28) and 693 plate appearances (.280)
Austin Riley, Braves 177 in 159 games (1.11) and 715 plate appearances (.248)
Francisco Lindor, Mets 175 in 160 games (1.09) and 687 plate appearances (.255)
Max Muncy, Dodgers 174 in 135 games (1.29) and 579 plate appearances (.301)
Ozzie Albies, Braves 172 in 148 games (1.16) and 660 plate appearances (.261)
Juan Soto, Padres 171 in 162 games (1.06) and 708 plate appearances (.242)
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks 167 in 155 games (1.08) and 665 plate appearances (.251)

Clutch Hitting (Runs batted in / Total Batting Bases)
Max Muncy, Dodgers 105 RBI from 229 batting bases = .459
JD Martinez, Dodgers 103 RBI from 247 batting bases = .417
Pete Alonso, Mets 118 RBI from 286 batting bases = .413
Alec Brohm, Phillies 97 RBI from 244 batting bases = .398
Nolan Gorman, Cardinals 76 RBI from 194 batting bases = .392
Matt Olson, Braves 139 RBI from 367 batting bases = .379
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies 104 RBI from 277 batting bases = .375
Cody Bellinger, Cubs 97 RBI from 262 batting bases = .370
Nolan Arendao, Cardinals 93 RBI from 257 batting bases = .368
Trae Turner, Phillies 76 RBI from 293 batting bases = .368


On Base Percentage – Starters (Hits + walks + hit by pitch / batters faced)
Brandon Woodruf, Brewers 58/253 = .229
Christopher Sanchez, Phillies 107/396 = .270
Corbin Burnes, Brewers 215/784 = .2742
Zach Wheeler, Phillies 216/787 = .27445
Logan Webb, Giants 237/850 = .2788
Spencer Strider, Braves 213/763 = .2792
John Brebbia, Giants 45/161 = .27950
Fury Perez, Marlins 105/374 = .2807
Freddie Peralta, Brewers 191/680 = .2809
Justin Verlander, Mets 109/386 = .2824 (He was 189/669 = .2825 overall.)

On Base Percentage – Relief Pitchers (Hits + walks + hit by pitch / batters faced)
Evan Phillips, Dodgers 54/234 = .2307692
Jose Ruiz, Arizona 42/182 = .2307692 (Yes, 12/52 = .2307692)
Bryan Hoeing, Marlins 72/304 = .237
Devin Williams, Brewers 55/231 = .238
Jeff Hoffman, Phillies 50/208 = .240
Shelby Miller, Dodgers 40/163 = .245
Hunter Harvey, Nationals 59/235 = .251
Kevin Ginkel, D-Backs 66/254 = .2598
Brusdar Graterol, Dodgers 67/257 = .2607
Tanner Scott, Marlins 81/307 = .264

Scoring Percentage – Starters (Earned Runs/ Hits + walks + hit by pitch)
Blake Snell, Padres 45/217 = .207
Max Fried, Braves 22/90 = .244
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 36/143 = .2517
Ryan Walker, Giants 22/87 = .2529
Kodai Senga, Mets 55/208 = .264
Charlie Morton, Braves 66/245 = .2694
Javier Assad, Cubs 37/137 = .2701
Joe Musgrave, Padres 33/120 = .275
Justin Steele, Cubs 59/210 = .281
Josiah Gray, Nationals 69/241 = .286

Scoring Percentage – Relievers (Earned Runs/ Hits + walks + hit by pitch)
Josh Hader, Padres 8/65 = .123
Brusdar Graterol, Dodgers 9/67 = .134
Jose Alvarado, Phillies 8/48 = .167
Tom Cosgrove, Padres 10/55 = .182
Devin Williams, Brewers 10/55 = .182
Andrew Vasquez, Padres 10/54 = .185
David Bednar, Pirates 15/77 = .195
Shelby Miller, Dodgers 8/40 = .200
Brooks Raley, Mets 17/75 = .227
Yohan Ramirez, Pirates 14/58 = .241

Ohtani and Acuna were the league MVPs and each was a no-brainer Cole and Snell were the Cy Young winners. Cole had both the best W-L records (15-4) and the best numbers, 220 strikeouts vs. 48 walks and a 2.63 ERA. He was 3rd in keeping runners off base and 9th in preventing them to score. Snell’s 14-9 record was topped by several NL starters, including Spencer Strider, who would have won the award in the past with his 20-5 record. But his ERA was 2.25 to Strider’s 3.86. Strider had a superior S/W ratio: 281/58 vs. 234/99. Strider was #6 in keeping runners off the bases but Snell was #1 in preventing them from scoring and that wasn’t close. I think I’d have gone for Strider but you can argue for both. Bautista and Williams won the reliever awards. Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians had 44 saves but he also had a 12 blown saves and a 3-9 W/L record. He had a 3.22 ERA and isn’t in the top relievers in keeping runners off the bases or preventing them from scoring. Bautista had much more soldi numbers with 33 saves in 39 opportunities, an 8-2 W/L record and a 1.48 ERA. He was 4th in the league in both keeping runners off the bases and preventing them from scoring. Williams had numbers similar to Bautista’s: 36 saves in 40 opportunities, an 8-3 W/L record and a 1.53 ERA and was 4th and 5th in my numbers. But I might have gone with former Brewer Josh Hader, who had 33 saves in 38 chances and just a 2-3 W/L record but a 1.28 ERA. Closers are supposed to avoid getting decisions and 2-3 is arguably better than 8-3, depending on how they were used. Hader isn’t in the top ten in keeping runners off base, (he was .281), but he was #1 in preventing them from scoring. Again, you could argue either way.
 

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