Before the brackets come out

[cuseattle]

Who are some lesser talked about teams we might see in the sweet 16, and which big boys might get knocked out earlier than expected?
I didn't watch nearly as much this year as usual. I won't be sleeping on any Big 12 teams this year.

 

[rocfan44]

Who are some lesser talked about teams we might see in the sweet 16, and which big boys might get knocked out earlier than expected?
I didn't watch nearly as much this year as usual. I won't be sleeping on any Big 12 teams this year.

Don’t sleep on Bryant. They could have a run like FGCU did a few years back.

 

[bpo57]

Who are some lesser talked about teams we might see in the sweet 16, and which big boys might get knocked out earlier than expected?
I didn't watch nearly as much this year as usual. I won't be sleeping on any Big 12 teams this year.

I'll give you two teams that won't be too highly seeded. Murray State and Memphis - prolly a 7/8 and 10/11 respectively. Both are very athletic and defend well. Neither played in a great league so that may limit them but both are on a roll.

I wouldn't touch anybody in the ACC nor the BE. SEC and B-12 look solid. Not sure what to make of the B1G and just don't get to see enough of the west coast teams. Gotta go to work in the morning.

 

[Vorony]

Wyoming could do some damage.
Loyola Chicago is clicking at the right time too.

 

[MSOrange]

Iowa is looking really good right now.

 

[bevosu]

I'm not a BIG fan, but I think they have 3-4 teams that have a shot at making a run. The usual suspects have been weaker this year...Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State.

But, it's hard to have a lot of confidence in a conference when Rutgers can finish in the top 5.

 

[texascpa]

Wyoming could do some damage.
Loyola Chicago is clicking at the right time too.

Was going to bring up Loyola Chicago myself. Someone needs to recruit Sister Jean.

 

[cuseattle]

USC has looked strong the few times I've seen them. Thought UCLA would be better and flashier, but they've been really steady all.year. they can win scoring in the 60s and in the 90s which seems like a valuable tournament advantage.

 

[bpo57]

Was going to bring up Loyola Chicago myself. Someone needs to recruit Sister Jean.

Gonna be 103 in August.

 

[chugg21]

Can't even root for Bona or UB this year. Sucks.

 

[bpo57]

Can't even root for Bona or UB this year. Sucks.

Looks like Colgate will carry the banner for Upstate NY unless SBU can win the A-10.

 

[the villager]

I'll give you two teams that won't be too highly seeded. Murray State and Memphis - prolly a 7/8 and 10/11 respectively. Both are very athletic and defend well. Neither played in a great league so that may limit them but both are on a roll.

I wouldn't touch anybody in the ACC nor the BE. SEC and B-12 look solid. Not sure what to make of the B1G and just don't get to see enough of the west coast teams. Gotta go to work in the morning.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If I was Arizona or Auburn I would be concerned about a matchup against the University of San Francisco in the round of 32. I also could see St Mary’s in the sweet 16.

 

[NC_Orange]

I keep looking at S. Dakota State. They havent lost in 3 months and play fundamental ball.

Side note: one of the brackets I saw had them as a 12 and Yukon as the 5. That would be glorious!

 

[NineOneSeven]

USC has looked strong the few times I've seen them. Thought UCLA would be better and flashier, but they've been really steady all.year. they can win scoring in the 60s and in the 90s which seems like a valuable tournament advantage.

UCLA could make the FF and I wouldn’t be shocked. Experience, and talent.

 

[bpo57]

If I was Arizona or Auburn I would be concerned about a matchup against the University of San Francisco in the round of 32. I also could see St Mary’s in the sweet 16.

I picked up Auburn at 30 to 1 in early January and thought I was a genius. I've watched them play at least a dozen times. They may have the best front line in the country but their two guards (Johnson and Greene) are wildly inconsistent. They chuck up shots from everywhere. If they play under control and with discipline then Auburn would be the team to beat. But they won't and Auburn will lose to somebody they should beat.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I keep looking at S. Dakota State. They havent lost in 3 months and play fundamental ball.

Side note: one of the brackets I saw had them as a 12 and Yukon as the 5. That would be glorious!

Please lord !

 

[NineOneSeven]

By the way... Oregon St went to the S16 last year. Improbable sure, but they went 3-28 this year. That is insane!

 

[jncuse]

The Pac-12 seemed like the worst P5 conference last year and then absolutely dominated in the NCAA tournament.

The following is based on observation, I have no numbers to back it up:
The system favours conferences that as a whole played the best before the end of December. And that is ultimately the fairest way to do things since how can you tell which conference is improving once they are only playing themselves. You can't. But what sometimes happens is that the 4th or 5th place team in "great" conference that gets a 4 seed is not as good as other 4 seeds.

My advice is don't pick your brackets based on the one or two conferences that get the most seeds or those that hog the top 4/5 seed lines. Those conferences on a "per school" basis have tended to do worse and proportionately have more flops before the sweet 16.. and this is not a new trend. Think back to the when the Big East got a huge # of seeds. They had some national titles, but a higher proportion than others of flops as well. (thanks Pitt, Georgetown and Notre Dame!). This has happened when the Big Ten has been very good, or the years where the New Big East and Big 12 get a high % of their teams in.

If the above sounds confusing, I'll give an example:

Team A - 3 or 4 seed from Power Conference with 8 bids and 5 teams in the top 5 seed lines
Team B - 3 or 4 seed from Power Conference with 5 bids and 2 teams in the top 5 seed lines

Team A has tended to flop earlier than Team B.