Best Conference in the OOC

[jncuse]

Conference performance in November and December is always key in determining team's fates on Selection Sunday, It determines what conferences will be able to feed off each other the best in conference play.

For middle of the pack P5 teams it makes the difference between who gets in and who gets out. For the better teams in makes the difference of 2-3 seed lines. Teams may not even be any better or worse, they just have more opportunity.

We are nearing 40% of OOC play, and not sure if any conference has really stood out yet. Conference RPI suggest the Big 12, ACC, Big East as the top 3, with the SEC struggling a bit. It does appear the SEC will be top heavy, with many bottom feeders (nothing unusual)

The next week or two, with conference challenges, should start separting the pack a bit more.

Feel free to add any thoughts on what conference you think has been, or will be the best by the end of December... or perhaps there is no standout this year?

 

[rstone7727]

Kind of early to tell. Like you say, we'll know more after the "challenge" results are in. If I had to rate them now to predict end of year strength, I'd say:

1) ACC
2) Big 12
3) BiG
4) Big East
5) Pac 12
6) SEC
7) AAC

 

[obliterata]

I think the Big East, Big12, and ACC have a good chance of being better than the Big10, Pac12, and SEC.

 

[Madbiker]

Well we did our part for the ACC.

 

[721Comstock]

Well we did our part for the ACC.

You can say that again!

 

[longtimefan]

Conference performance in November and December is always key in determining team's fates on Selection Sunday, It determines what conferences will be able to feed off each other the best in conference play.

For middle of the pack P5 teams it makes the difference between who gets in and who gets out. For the better teams in makes the difference of 2-3 seed lines. Teams may not even be any better or worse, they just have more opportunity.

We are nearing 40% of OOC play, and not sure if any conference has really stood out yet. Conference RPI suggest the Big 12, ACC, Big East as the top 3, with the SEC struggling a bit. It does appear the SEC will be top heavy, with many bottom feeders (nothing unusual)

The next week or two, with conference challenges, should start separting the pack a bit more.

Feel free to add any thoughts on what conference you think has been, or will be the best by the end of December... or perhaps there is no standout this year?

The ACC has lost 3 games vs. the CAA:

Wm & Mary over NCSt
Hofstra over FSU
N'Eastern over Miami

That can't help.

 

[cto]

Here are all the non-conference records by teams. Someone else can sort it out by conference.. (The Big 10 has already lost 27 games, if that helps).

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/trend/win_trends/non_conference

 

[jncuse]

Here are all the non-conference records by teams. Someone else can sort it out by conference.. (The Big 10 has already lost 27 games, if that helps).

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/trend/win_trends/non_conference

Thanks CTO, I did not realize the BiG had lost that many.

Here is the link that I tend to use... I use both the live and forecasted models.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-conf-rpi.html

The B10 is struggling at #7, with a record of of 62-28 (on #10 SOS). Compare it to ACC at 69-22 (#8 SOS). The ACC-B10 challenge is really important for the B10. At their current conference RPI they are going to have most (if not all) of the middle pack sub 50 in the RPI.

 

[jncuse]

I thought I would provide an update, as OOC is drawing to a close here are the forecasted Conference RPI

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confrpi.html

1. Big 12
2. Pac 12

3. ACC
4. Big East

5. Big Ten
6. SEC

7. A-10

8. AAC


The conferences are grouped as there are decent gaps in between each. Similar to last year the B12 did really good out of conference, and it will be reflected in the seedings and % of teams getting in as the season progresses.

The most interesting conference this year in terms of tournament seeds and getting in/out will likely be the PAC 12. It is probably the worst P5 or P6 conference in terms of top 3 teams, but it is also the deepest conference in America.

9 of its 12 members are KP top 53. This is consistent with the RPI forecast which has 9 of its 12 members being RPI top 53. This bodes well for the PAC 12 being possibly a 7 team league this year even without a dominant team as of yet.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/P12.html

It's very tight right now, but whomever does well in the P12 will have quite a few top 50 wins, and get seeded quite well.

As for the ACC, it was a solid OOC. It would be very hard to fathom a 10-8 Syracuse team not getting in the tourney our of the ACC.

 

[Briancuse]

The Big East might be the best conference right now, Prov,Butler, and Xavier are legit teams.

 

[Eric15]

The Big East might be the best conference right now, Prov,Butler, and Xavier are legit teams.

Don't forget about Nova -- a solid Top 15 team.

 

[Briancuse]

Don't forget about Nova -- a solid Top 15 team.

Nova hasn't been as good as I expected, but they are very dangerous.

 

[jncuse]

IMO< I think the Big East could possibly be #2, and is no doubt top 4.

My vote would go to the Big 12, given the power of the top 6 in a 10 team league.

I have PAC-12 as the deepest conference in terms of NIT+ level teams. It just does not have the power at the top of the B12, ACC, or Big East.

The ACC is also extremely strong at the top. 5 top 11 Ken Pom Teams (Duke, UNC, Virginia, Louisville, Miami). I think Louisville is a top 5 team - team is deep and can create havoc. It is hard to tell though -- they have played a weak schedule and because of their depth keep the pressure fairly high for most of the game. There only quality opponent was a 4 point loss at Michigan St, which is solid.