Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24

[JLine]

Still need to beat GaTech, and win one in the ACCT to feel safe. Two in the ACCT if no GaTech. We lose out, and we may see another season that shall not be named. Similar to when we beat GTown at home, and thought all was well. OOC is no good, and the road. But, Virginia, FSU, Miami, Duke.

Just keep winning boys. No worries. When we win at Louisville all will be well.

 

[jncuse]

Some projected RPI's, courtesy of RPI Wizard

No problem with this. We have the quality wins and this RPI is not out totally out of the range of what has been accepted before. I think the RPI at 72 is totally irrelevant in assessing us a bubble team

Now what if we lose to Georgia Tech in the first round of the ACC tourney

While the individual RPI is very de-emphasized this is still the highest any team would ever get in with. Having an 80+ RPI is a bit of a concern and I could see it not being irrelevant at this level. I have no basis for this, just a gut feeling. I think if the RPI is so high it subconsciously forces people to look more at our other warts (bad losses and road wins) rather than focusing on what is really good on our resume. Not to say we can't make it with the above, but it's not a 100% lock either.

I am not going to bother posting our 17-15 projection. We have not locked anything despite what Dick Vitale said last night,

 

[Cusefan0307]

Let's shock the world and beat Louisville.

 

[MSOrange]

Some projected RPI's, courtesy of RPI Wizard

View attachment 90234

No problem with this. We have the quality wins and this RPI is not out totally out of the range of what has been accepted before. I think the RPI at 72 is totally irrelevant in assessing us a bubble team

Now what if we lose to Georgia Tech in the first round of the ACC tourney

View attachment 90228

While the individual RPI is very de-emphasized this is still the highest any team would ever get in with. Having an 80+ RPI is a bit of a concern and I could see it not being irrelevant at this level. I have no basis for this, just a gut feeling. I still like our chances in this scenario, but just a concern.

I am not going to bother posting our 17-15 projection. We have not locked anything despite what Dick Vitale said last night, We need to win at least one game.

I agree we need one more. I think if we beat Ga Tech or Louisville, I'd feel good about our chances. If we one of those and a game in the ACC Tourney, I'll be calm on Selection Sunday.

 

[Tom W.]

Well, what a night, what a shot!
Now onto today's games...
This is what I was thinking for today...

-Georgia over Bama (I think Bama needs to win out, would be out with a loss here IMO)

-Nebraska over Michigan State

-Wisconsin over Ohio State (Oh St should already be pretty much done, but the Wisconsin win would help our RPI)

-Arizona over USC (USC still pretty solid in right now, but not quite a lock)

Pretty much it for today, unless I missed something?

 

[iommi]

you think if they lose the Arch Madness title game they still get in?

Yesh, they're in. Their Harlem Globetrotters shorts make them a lock.

 

[jncuse]

Well, what a night, what a shot!
Now onto today's games...
This is what I was thinking for today...

-Georgia over Bama (I think Bama needs to win out, would be out with a loss here IMO)

-Nebraska over Michigan State

-Wisconsin over Ohio State (Oh St should already be pretty much done, but the Wisconsin win would help our RPI)

-Arizona over USC (USC still pretty solid in right now, but not quite a lock)

Pretty much it for today, unless I missed something?

I don't think you missed anything -- most of those are real outliers.

I think Michigan St vs Nebraska is the key one, to see how Michgan St handles the injury.

 

[pearl31]

(USC still pretty solid in right now, but not quite a lock)

I'd say USC (along with Cal, actually) is about as solid as us - which is to say they still need a couple more wins to feel safe

 

[jncuse]

Updated rankings after Wednesday games (27 new brackets)

Note - Seton Hall and Marquette are at 27/27

Michigan St 26
Syracuse 22
California 21
Providence 21
Illinois St 17*
Kansas St 15
---- IN/OUT LINE----
Vanderbilt 11
TCU 10
Wake Forest 7
Georgia Tech 4
Rhode Island 3
Houston 3
Illinois 2 **
Clemson 1


* Likely inflated by those who view them as current MVC champs
** New team in the mix
Note - Seton Hall and Marquette are both 27/27

So we jumped up 4 spots after yesterday's win -- we jumped Cal, Illinois St, Kansas St, and TCU. Providence also gets into the tournament after their massive road win at Creighton. Vanderbilt makes a big climb after beating Tennessee... and Tennessee goes from about 30% having them in to NIL.

I am a little surprised we are still just at 22/27 (81%). Perhaps the 81% will rise with a larger sample.

 

[jncuse]

Just looking at the new team Illinois who is currently 15-12

Not a bad OOC - only 3 losses and the worse one was #82 Winthrop at home which isn't good but not in terrible category. They beat VCU on a neutral court, beat a few name schools like BYU and NC St but those are not movers.

In conference they are 6-9 -- they beat Michigan, and swept Northwestern. They don't have a bad loss all season.

All very modest stuff, but I can see them going 3-0 to end the season. Catching Michigan St at home, and 2 winnable road games.

My judgment -- if they win the next 3 games they are very valid contenders for an at large spot.

 

[20Plus]

Just looking at the new team Illinois who is currently 15-12

View attachment 90263

Not a bad OOC - only 3 losses and the worse one was #82 Winthrop at home which isn't good but not in terrible category. They beat VCU on a neutral court, beat a few name schools like BYU and NC St but those are not movers.

In conference they are 6-9 -- they beat Michigan, and swept Northwestern. They don't have a bad loss all season.

All very modest stuff, but I can see them going 3-0 to end the season. Catching Michigan St at home, and 2 winnable road games.

My judgment -- if they win the next 3 games they are very valid contenders for an at large spot.

I love that screenshot what website is that from

 

[jncuse]

I love that screenshot what website is that from

RPIForecast.com

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Syracuse.html

 

[jdubs30]

Well, what a night, what a shot!
Now onto today's games...
This is what I was thinking for today...

-Georgia over Bama (I think Bama needs to win out, would be out with a loss here IMO)

-Nebraska over Michigan State

-Wisconsin over Ohio State (Oh St should already be pretty much done, but the Wisconsin win would help our RPI)

-Arizona over USC (USC still pretty solid in right now, but not quite a lock)

Pretty much it for today, unless I missed something?

Looks like UGA is gonna finish off Bama barring a miracle - solid result for us.

I'd also add Cincy over Memphis. Memphis has 18 wins. But if they won tonight @Cincy - they still have Houston, Tulane and @SMU before the season ends. If they won out they would get to 22 wins with a few impressive ones. Cincy winning tonight was a crusher.

I don't think the AAC will get a 3rd team unless someone else wins the AACT - but it's always good to eliminate an 18 win team like Memphis.

 

[jncuse]

Not sure if Georgia is the result we wanted.

Georgia is still in this IMO if they win out. If they beat Arkansas they will have an RPI in the low 40's, no real terrible losses (at Oakland?). 7 road / neutral wins. That would be a fairly decent bubble resume. They were also legitimately screwed at Texas AM by a clock failure.

I also think Houston will have a good chance of being right on the line if they win out. I don't think they will beat Cincy, but if they do they are a legit bubble team. The computer ratings also like them as well.

 

[jdubs30]

Not sure if Georgia is the result we wanted.

Georgia is still in this IMO if they win out. If they beat Arkansas they will have an RPI in the low 40's, no real terrible losses (at Oakland?). 7 road / neutral wins. That would be a fairly decent bubble resume. They were also legitimately screwed at Texas AM by a clock failure.

View attachment 90266

I also think Houston will have a good chance of being right on the line if they win out. I don't think they will beat Cincy, but if they do they are a legit bubble team. The computer ratings also like them as well.

View attachment 90267

Do you think this hurts Alabama more than it helps Georiga though?

Agreed on Houston. We really needed UConn to pull it off last night. As much as the committee has disrespected the AAC in the past; they DID put Tulsa in last year for some reason (Unless it was just because OU's AD was the chair)

 

[Cuse House]

If we beat Louisville, we will only have 18 wins, but almost 30% of our wins would be against top 10 teams. What a wacky season it has been.

 

[jdubs30]

Not sure if Georgia is the result we wanted.

Georgia is still in this IMO if they win out. If they beat Arkansas they will have an RPI in the low 40's, no real terrible losses (at Oakland?). 7 road / neutral wins. That would be a fairly decent bubble resume. They were also legitimately screwed at Texas AM by a clock failure.

View attachment 90266

I also think Houston will have a good chance of being right on the line if they win out. I don't think they will beat Cincy, but if they do they are a legit bubble team. The computer ratings also like them as well.

View attachment 90267

Do you think this hurts Alabama more than it helps Georiga though?

Agreed on Houston. We really needed UConn to pull it off last night. As much as the committee has disrespected the AAC in the past; they DID put Tulsa in last year for some reason (Unless it was just because OU's AD was the chair)

 

[pearl31]

geez Ill came out of nowhere, but yeah I'd forgotten they had a somewhat decent noncon - could realistically take Indiana's spot as the last b1g team selected

 

[pearl31]

Not sure if Georgia is the result we wanted.

Georgia is still in this IMO if they win out. If they beat Arkansas they will have an RPI in the low 40's, no real terrible losses (at Oakland?). 7 road / neutral wins. That would be a fairly decent bubble resume. They were also legitimately screwed at Texas AM by a clock failure.

View attachment 90266

I also think Houston will have a good chance of being right on the line if they win out. I don't think they will beat Cincy, but if they do they are a legit bubble team. The computer ratings also like them as well.

View attachment 90267

without Maten, Georgia doesn't have a legit chance IMO... I'd wager Houston will lose both at Memphis and at Cinci

 

[jncuse]

Do you think this hurts Alabama more than it helps Georiga though?

Agreed on Houston. We really needed UConn to pull it off last night. As much as the committee has disrespected the AAC in the past; they DID put Tulsa in last year for some reason (Unless it was just because OU's AD was the chair)

I think Georgia and Alabama were about tied... I gave the edge to Georgia based on road wins. I guess one was going to be eliminated tonight.

 

[jncuse]

I think many of these teams winning out is not that likely -- but just showing that they are not "locked out" before the conference tourney. The conference tourney can change things as well.

 

[jncuse]

Looking for teams that are clear outs now that by winning out the regular season could move right on the bubble line or in at the start of tourney week.

Will be adding these teams to my list to lose on Saturday / Sunday. Some of these teams winning out the regular season is very improbable, but they still need to be knocked out. (and of course there are conference tournaments, but to keep it simple I am looking at in/out at the start of that week)

Teams in no particular order, I am just starting at RPI #100, and moving up

Georgia Tech - Probability of winning out based on Sagarin - 1%

Currently 4/27 on matrix
Clearly in if they win out.

Indiana - Probability of winning out - 7%

Currently 0/27 on the matrix
Probably in if they win out

Georgetown - Probability of winning out - 6%

Currently 0/27 on the matrix
Right on the in/out line if they win out

 

[jncuse]

Ole Miss - Probability of winning out - 11%

Currently 0/27 on the matrix
Still out if they win out, but they position themselves to make a move in tourney week.

Clemson - Probability of winning out - 30%

Currently 1/27 on the matrix
Likely right on the bubble line entering tourney week

Illinois - Probability of winning out - 12%

Currently 1/27 on the matrix
Likely right on the bubble line entering tourney week

 

[jncuse]

Pittsburgh - Probability of winning out - 1%

Currently 0/27 on the matrix
Likely right on the bubble line entering tourney week

Tennessee - Probability of winning out - 13%

Currently 0/27 on the matrix
Likely right on the bubble line entering tourney week

Georgia - Probability of winning out - 26%

Currently 0/27 on the matrix
Probably just on the outside entering tourney week.

 

[jncuse]

Houston - Probability of winning out - 12%

Currently 3/27 on the matrix
Beating Cincy would put them over the top in my view and have them as just inside the line.

Rhode Island - Probability of winning out - 31%

Currently 3/27 on the matrix
Right near the line, probably one of the first two or three out.