Coach Pop is one wily old goat

[Alsacs]

Miami beats San Antonio in 5. Their is no David West/Roy Hibbert duo on San Antonio. Duncan can be a better West, but Splitter is no Hibbert. The reason Indiana was successful against Miami was because Miami couldn't play sustained small ball against them without it hurting Miami defensively. Against SA the Heat will play Chamlers/Cole-Wade-Lebron-Battier/Allen-Bosh a lot more frequently and will stretch SA's defense.

San Antonio's only chance is for Parker/Ginobili to play out of their minds which I don't think they can. SA's best lineup against the Heat will have to be Parker-Ginobili-Leonard-Blair/Diaw-Duncan who can all score on the court. Blair or Diaw can atleast score Splitter will be useless, and Miami will love when Matt Bonner and Danny Green are on the court because all they are stand still shooters and Parker will have a hard time beating Lebron off the dribble.

 

[Ward]

Spurs are big like Indiana but that doesn't mean they play similar. Indiana has Hibbert and West who pound the paint to score. Hibbert and West also pound the offensive glass much better/more than Splitter and Duncan. Not saying Hibbert and West are better than Splitter and Duncan, just saying they are different style games. Also, the Pacers series was tough because it wouldn't let Miami put their best line up on the floor, line up that won 27 in a row, with Battier as a stretch 4. Battier was hopeless against West because West was abusing him down low. Diaw and Bonner are better shooting mid range jumpers and thress, and Splitter isn't as big an offensive threat as West inside. Spurs will hurt the Heat much more by taking advantage of their opportunistic trapping defense with quick ball movement for spot up 3's.

Defensively, Hibbert is far and away the best in the league at challenging shots at the rim. A big paper at the Sloan conference said opponents shoot 32-36% at the rim with him challenging it, Splitter and Duncan are around 48%. It's highly documented that for whatever reason Lebron and Wade don't attack the paint against Hibbert. They did last nigh for the first time all series and blew Indiana out. They'll attack as usual in this series. I don't think Bosh will be as absent as he was in the Indiana series either as he historically does well against the Spurs. Basketball is all about matchups and styles. Pacers were just a nightmare of a match up for Miami all the way around.

My prediction Heat in 6. Heat win games 1, 2, 4, and 6.

 

[Alsacs]

Spurs are big like Indiana but that doesn't mean they play similar. Indiana has Hibbert and West who pound the paint to score. Hibbert and West also pound the offensive glass much better/more than Splitter and Duncan. Not saying Hibbert and West are better than Splitter and Duncan, just saying they are different style games. Also, the Pacers series was tough because it wouldn't let Miami put their best line up on the floor, line up that won 27 in a row, with Battier as a stretch 4. Battier was hopeless against West because West was abusing him down low. Diaw and Bonner are better shooting mid range jumpers and thress, and Splitter isn't as big an offensive threat as West inside. Spurs will hurt the Heat much more by taking advantage of their opportunistic trapping defense with quick ball movement for spot up 3's.

Defensively, Hibbert is far and away the best in the league at challenging shots at the rim. A big paper at the Sloan conference said opponents shoot 32-36% at the rim with him challenging it, Splitter and Duncan are around 48%. It's highly documented that for whatever reason Lebron and Wade don't attack the paint against Hibbert. They did last nigh for the first time all series and blew Indiana out. They'll attack as usual in this series. I don't think Bosh will be as absent as he was in the Indiana series either as he historically does well against the Spurs. Basketball is all about matchups and styles. Pacers were just a nightmare of a match up for Miami all the way around.

My prediction Heat in 6. Heat win games 1, 2, 4, and 6.

Well you and I agree, but I can't give the Spurs more than game 3. However, I agree with everything you said.

 

[kirbivore]

the heat sat wade and lebron for game 2 as a rebuttal

Also the streak had just ended. If the streak was still going they play that game.

 

[texascpa]

Sorry, but my hate for Ginobli is still far greater than Lebron's.

 

[moqui]

In the Memphis series, Splitter was playing 26 minutes per game. Along with Duncan, those 2 are really the only big bruiser West-Hibbert types the Spurs have (not counting Diaw or Bonner here). So I don't see the Spurs playing big lineups like that most of the game, which is what really hurt Miami in the last round.

even though his minutes have evaporated in the post season, they could play Blair at any time . . . but they probably won't.

As I have noted, I love the Spurs and they have had plenty of time to rest their old bones. If it had to be Miami, this is the best they could have hoped for - plenty of rest and a Heat team that was pushed to seven tough games.

I would love to see Duncan tie Kobe with 5 rings . . . but I'm picking Miami in 5 games.

 

[RF2044]

This is true, but I'm not sure I follow. Miami was hurt because Indy was playing 2 big bruising guys (much like Randolph and Gasol) for 40 minutes a game. In the Memphis series, Splitter was playing 26 minutes per game. Along with Duncan, those 2 are really the only big bruiser West-Hibbert types the Spurs have (not counting Diaw or Bonner here). So I don't see the Spurs playing big lineups like that most of the game, which is what really hurt Miami in the last round.

Which isn't to say the Spurs can't win, but if they win, I don't think they will be hurting Miami in the same way Indy was.

Point being, the Spurs played a huge team that beats teams up inside with dominant inside play, and their defense made Zach Randolph look inept en route to a sweep. Miami played the same type of team and got taken to game 7.

Indiana got hurt and turned the ball over indiscriminately because their guards couldn't handle Miami's pressure. I seriously doubt that San Antonio's backcourt will have any issue handling Miami's pressure.

I also wouldn't underestimate the Spurs' team defense, and how consistent they are regardless of the opponent or style of offense they go against. Regardless of opponent, they find a way. They aren't going to--and don't need to--play big bruiser to be successful. Last year, all everyone talked about was how teams would get burned trying to play big against Miami because of the matchup disparity on the other end. Lebron will get his, the same way he does against everybody, but the question becomes whether or not the supporting cast will do enough to beat San Antonio. After the last series, I don't see that happening.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm not underestimating the Spurs at all. I think they're awesome. I just think the matchup is different; Indiana isn't as good as the Spurs but that doesn't necessarily mean that because Indy took Miami to 7 the Spurs will beat Miami. And likewise, just because the Spurs swept a similar team to the one that Miami went 7 with, doesn't mean the Spurs are gonna beat Miami. (and of course it doesn't mean they won't beat Miami). Because San Antonio and Indy are really different teams I don't think the result of the last series has much of an impact on how I view this series.

even though his minutes have evaporated in the post season, they could play Blair at any time . . . but they probably won't

Yeah, I didn't even consider the possibility of Blair playing. He's an inside player, but he's like 6-6. I don't think Miami is too worried about him. I don't really consider Diaw a guy like that either.

The Spurs have a really good defense, but I don't think they have as good of a defense as Indy. (Indy finished first in defensive efficiency, spurs third, so not a huge difference). I think Miami is going to get a few more open looks in this
series than the last one.

A lot is going to come down to Wade probably. He looked pretty spry last night, but that was the first time in a while.

 

[RF2044]

I'm not underestimating the Spurs at all. I think they're awesome. I just think the matchup is different; Indiana isn't as good as the Spurs but that doesn't necessarily mean that because Indy took Miami to 7 the Spurs will beat Miami. And likewise, just because the Spurs swept a similar team to the one that Miami went 7 with, doesn't mean the Spurs are gonna beat Miami. (and of course it doesn't mean they won't beat Miami). Because San Antonio and Indy are really different teams I don't think the result of the last series has much of an impact on how I view this series.

The transitive property doesn't apply. Which is why they play the games. Should be a good series!

Also, for argument's sake--what happens to Miami's "window" if the Spurs beat them? Can Wade bounce back and shake off the injury bag, or is he in decline? If the Heat don't win this year, can they continue to win with the team as currently constituted?

[obviously, any team with Lebron has a chance to win. And I'm not suggesting that they are "through" because of how Wade / Bosh looked for large segments of the Indiana series--the fact of the matter is that they have now qualified for three championships in a row. Just raising this question to see what others think about Miami after 2o13]

 

[Alsacs]

Who is Tony Parker going to defend on Miami? Parker is one the worst defending guards in the NBA he is just lucky he is that damn good on offense. An injured Dwayne Wade or Chalmers/Cole player? I like the Spurs and Duncan is a personal favorite to watch, but they are going to housed by Miami. I honestly could see a sweep they can't matchup with Miami. Leonard/Neal are the only guys who can defend Lebron on that roster and neither are as good as Paul George/ George Hill defensively. Leonard is an underrated wing player, but Lebron James is the best player in the NBA. The only teams in the NBA playoffs that could have beaten Miami were Indiana or Memphis. Memphis could have used Bill Simmons "Trick or treat" Tony Allen and Tayshawn Prince on Lebron and had Z-Bo and Gasol to do what Hibbert/West did. San Antonio is a team that relies on spacing the floor on Parker/Ginobili penetration into Neal, Bonner, Green 3 pt shooters. Miami will stick Lebron on Parker/Ginobili and they will have no penetration.

 

[Knicks411]

Also, for argument's sake--what happens to Miami's "window" if the Spurs beat them? Can Wade bounce back and shake off the injury bag, or is he in decline? If the Heat don't win this year, can they continue to win with the team as currently constituted?

Simmons had Zack Lowe and Brian Windhorst on his podcast yesterday, they talked about this for a while.

I think it's an open question. All 3 of the Big 3 have opt outs after next year. If Lebron sees Wade slowing down, even if they win the title the next 2 years, does he opt out and go somewhere else? (Cleveland??!! Lakers?!?! (sigh)

Bosh isn't playing great right now, but as a Miami fan, I would be less worried about him than Wade. I would be really concerned about Wade's future. Miami would probably be better off if Wade opted out and they let him leave, but that would be a tough one. Imagine if they win another 2 titles, Wade has won 4 titles for Miami, and he opts out? Would be tough to not re-sign him in that spot, even though it would also be tough to justify giving him another 3-4 years at anywhere close to the max)

 

[RF2044]

Who is Tony Parker going to defend on Miami? Parker is one the worst defending guards in the NBA he is just lucky he is that damn good on offense. An injured Dwayne Wade or Chalmers/Cole player? I like the Spurs and Duncan is a personal favorite to watch, but they are going to housed by Miami. I honestly could see a sweep they can't matchup with Miami. Leonard/Neal are the only guys who can defend Lebron on that roster and neither are as good as Paul George/ George Hill defensively. Leonard is an underrated wing player, but Lebron James is the best player in the NBA. The only teams in the NBA playoffs that could have beaten Miami were Indiana or Memphis. Memphis could have used Bill Simmons "Trick or treat" Tony Allen and Tayshawn Prince on Lebron and had Z-Bo and Gasol to do what Hibbert/West did. San Antonio is a team that relies on spacing the floor on Parker/Ginobili penetration into Neal, Bonner, Green 3 pt shooters. Miami will stick Lebron on Parker/Ginobili and they will have no penetration.

I don't see that being viable. Lebron is a great defender--no question--but he'd have trouble staying with a waterbug like Parker if he was forced to guard him for any appreciable length of time. And that would mean someone like Rio or Cole would then have to guard Ginoboli [which would be a huge mismatch] or an even bigger player like Leonard, Green, or Diaw which is also far from ideal.

Parker is playing exceptionally well right now. I don't think Spoelstra will want to burn Lebron or Wade out having to defend him and run through a billion screens [especially a factor for Wade's legs, given how depleted he looked for most of the last series].

Will be an interesting chess match.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah maybe Lebron gets put on Parker at the end of games, but I'm not sure. Parker is really really quick. Then again so was Derrick Rose...

 

[PoppyHart]

I'll go with Heat in either 5 or 7. The rust factor may play a role in game 1 for S.A., and if they lose the first 2, I think the Heat would smell blood. They seem to know how to turn it on when they want to.

 

[Orangezoo]

Sorry, but my hate for Ginobli is still far greater than Lebron's.

Ginobli - aka captain flop. He dives like maradona..

 

[Ward]

I don't see that being viable. Lebron is a great defender--no question--but he'd have trouble staying with a waterbug like Parker if he was forced to guard him for any appreciable length of time. And that would mean someone like Rio or Cole would then have to guard Ginoboli [which would be a huge mismatch] or an even bigger player like Leonard, Green, or Diaw which is also far from ideal.

Parker is playing exceptionally well right now. I don't think Spoelstra will want to burn Lebron or Wade out having to defend him and run through a billion screens [especially a factor for Wade's legs, given how depleted he looked for most of the last series].

Will be an interesting chess match.

Someone already alluded to this but if Lebron can keep Rose in front of him I have to think he could hold his own against Parker. I don't think it'd necessarily mean Cole or Chalmers would have to guard Leonard or Ginobili. Heat could go with a line up like LeBron, Wade, Allen, Battier, Bosh/Birdman. Put Lebron on Parker than Allen and Wade on Leonard and Manu. Neither one really has a post up game so it isnt like they'd just take one of them down to the block. Allen can hold his own against Ginobili or Leonard if he was able to be put on George for stretches last series. Then have Lebron play pg on offense and spread the floor with the other guys to open up lanes for him and Wade.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah I would think if it got to a situation where Spo wanted to stick Lebron on Parker they would go without a PG.

Wonder if Battier can get back in the rotation for this series

Edit: And I gotta say, how much fun must it be coaching Lebron? He's the fix to pretty much any issue you're facing

 

[moqui]

ESPN today has the complete history of Pop's legendary treatment of sideline reporters