College football teams tend to improve in a new coach’s second year. But not after that.

[Whitey23]

I think the inspiration for this article came from a Cuse question posed by CuseEndZone (@CuseEndZone) | Twitter


32:50 mark
Ladies and gentlemen, the most PAPN PAPN that ever PAPN'd

 

[GoSU96]

Uh, yeah, that's not close to true.

Harbaugh at Stanford, Marrone at SU, Briles at Baylor, Cutcliffe at Duke, the guy at Colorado, all beg to differ.

 

[Whitey23]

Uh, yeah, that's not close to true.

Harbaugh at Stanford, Marrone at SU, Briles at Baylor, Cutcliffe at Duke, the guy at Colorado, all beg to differ.

You can say it's not true based on 4 examples. His calculations run through every program over a number of years. It's also based on adjusted points per game and not just wins and losses.

 

[Lou_C]

Cool read...most relevant for Syracuse:

For the most part, the trends are easy to spot. If your performance has been awful, you’re probably going to improve by a decent amount. If you’ve been around average, you’ll move toward zero. And if you’re a first-year coach taking over an elite program, you’re probably going to sink.


But in your second year, no matter what, you’re probably going to improve.

 

[Millhouse]

Uh, yeah, that's not close to true.

Harbaugh at Stanford, Marrone at SU, Briles at Baylor, Cutcliffe at Duke, the guy at Colorado, all beg to differ.

marrone's 2nd year was as good as the record got for him, not the best example

 

[GoSU96]

marrone's 2nd year was as good as the record got for him, not the best example

The team was much better in year 4

 

[GoSU96]

You can say it's not true based on 4 examples. His calculations run through every program over a number of years. It's also based on adjusted points per game and not just wins and losses.

Not is not true.

 

[retro44]

Wake Forrest

 

[Scooch]

Year 3 is when you find out if a coach will be successful from a wins and losses standpoint. A brilliant guy who posts here did that research a year ago.

 

[Whitey23]

Not is not true.

Not following.

 

[TheCusian]

In their podcast the went through our schedule and said there's a chance we're a lot better, but once again it only shows up in a win vs the previous season.

 

[Millhouse]

The team was much better in year 4

When someone dares point out the ninth bills win was meaningless, it's Nuh uh wins we wins

2012 should've been a better record but it wasn't

 

[upperdeck]

how many of these examples had a coach who stayed beyond 3-4 years if the team didnt improve.. maybe the real answer is that it takes 5 years for a coach to get a program improved and many never get a chance for a bump in year 2 and then another in year 5?

for all we know maybe Dino sees a big jump in year 2 and leaves in year 4 and we never know. there have been a bunch of examples of lower level guys leaving after 3-4 years for better programs and who knows if that system would have continued up or leveled off or gone down?

 

[Lou_C]

how many of these examples had a coach who stayed beyond 3-4 years if the team didnt improve.. maybe the real answer is that it takes 5 years for a coach to get a program improved and many never get a chance for a bump in year 2 and then another in year 5?

for all we know maybe Dino sees a big jump in year 2 and leaves in year 4 and we never know. there have been a bunch of examples of lower level guys leaving after 3-4 years for better programs and who knows if that system would have continued up or leveled off or gone down?

I personally think there are few modern examples of a program continuing to trend up or even maintain after the first 2-4 years. I think that's when most staffs peak, and then it's just whether you can not fall too far back. I think there are a ton of advantages to newness that makes that the sweet spot. There are exceptions (obviously Saban is the exception to everything), but they're getting further and further back in time. How many coaches have won national titles in recent years beyond their 6th year on the job? Saban obviously, Mack Brown in '05 comes to mind. There aren't many.

After four years or so, you can't sell yourself as the exciting new thing on the recruiting trail, your conference opponents start to get a handle on what you're doing on the field and on the recruiting trail and begin to counter it, you start to lose assistants after your initial success, etc.

And I say all that knowing Jimbo Fisher just got basically a ten year extension.