Cuse/UNC - Breakdown

[longislandcuse]

I am starting to become kind of bullish on our team.

UNC is going to be tough and I'd put it at 50/50 we move on but given all our struggles this year, we have some serious talent on this team and it's starting to show. I said I wouldn't be surprised if we beat UVA and I definitely won't be surprised if we beat UNC.

COACHING:
Jim Boeheim/Roy Williams - Advantage Cuse

REBOUNDING:
Advantage UNC

DEPTH:
Advantage UNC

DEFENSE:
Advantage Cuse

CROWD:
Push

IMPACT PLAYERS:

Michael Gbinije/Marcus Paige - Push
Trevor Cooney/Joel Berry - Push
Malachi Richardson/Justin Jackson - Advantage Cuse
Tyler Roberson/Brice Johnson - Advantage UNC
Tyler Lydon/Kennedy Meeks - Advantage Cuse
Dajuan Coleman/Isaiah Hicks & Joel James - Advantage UNC
Frank Howard/Nate Britt & Theo Pinson - Advantage UNC

With all that being said. If we can keep the rebounding somewhat close and stay out of foul trouble, the 5 hour tv timeouts will help negate the depth advantage they have. You can only play 5 players at a time. I'll take our "Big 3" over their "Big 3". In fact, I'd take our "Big 3" over anyone in the Final 4. We have 3 potential 1st Round Draft Picks on this team and if they all play like it, in the same game, along with our defense finally coming together this postseason, this team has as good a chance as any of taking home another National Championship.

 

[jgeorge322]

jackson is a zone killer though. thats a key matchup there, we need to win. he worries me.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Going into this tournament I would be much happier with a UNC matchup instead of a UVa matchup. On paper, it looks impossible for us to compete with UNC just because of rebounding and front line play, but for whatever reason we did a credible job of playing them very tough this year. They beat us twice, but by no means were those games landslides. I think our team is in a better place now and we are due to have a good shooting game from G and Cooney. Even the analytics give us a 30% chance which is not terrible (we were about 38% against UVa). If we play our best game of the season, I am sure we will win.

 

[jordoo]

Ummm Michael Gbinije is a much better player this year than Marcus Paige.

We need to compete on the glass and have more than one guy making shots. I'd also like to see us drive the ball a lot.

Berry got hot for them last time but Johnson also had an off game. Its really a game of who does what they do well better. If UNC rebounds and runs better than we defend and shoot then they will win and vice versa.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Swap G as our advantage and Jackson as their advantage and I agree. Jackson is very underrated.

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

Unlike the UVA and zaga game, we need to keep this a half-court game. We dont want to get into a run and gun game with these guys...especially considering their depth..they will smoke us. Also, we wont be able to rely on the press to save us in this game if we face a large deficit.

 

[upperdeck]

I think the crowd will be behind SU if the winning team fans from game one stays around. UNC wont have all that many more fans but you have to think many of the non unc fans will be rooting for the underdog.

 

[longislandcuse]

True, you both could make arguments in those two matchups.

I guess in my view, IF we can keep the rebounding margin somewhat close (i.e. Don't be Notre Dame bad) I'll take G/Mali/Lydon over Paige/Johnson/Jackson. That along with our defense, is where I think we can win this game.

*I put G/Paige as a push based on how they've played in this tournament. If Paige plays like the player he is and G plays like the player he is, G is clearly the better player and perhaps the best player on the court.

 

[jordoo]

Unlike the UVA and zaga game, we need to keep this a half-court game. We dont want to get into a run and gun game with these guys...especially considering their depth..they will smoke us. Also, we wont be able to rely on the press to save us in this game if we face a large deficit.

100% agree with this. In fact slowing down UNC effects them much like speeding up UVA does. It puts them out of their comfort zone and they begin to do things that they usually do not. But in a low possession game protecting our defensive board to limit their opportunities becomes very important. That and we need to shoot it pretty well to win regardless IMO.

 

[EastCoast2]

I think the crowd will be behind SU if the winning team fans from game one stays around. UNC wont have all that many more fans but you have to think many of the non unc fans will be rooting for the underdog.

Yep - you can bet Villanova and Oklahoma fans would rather face SU in the title game - if it's within 5 points in the second half, everyone not wearing Carolina Blue will be screaming for Orange.

 

[CorduroyG]

Its pretty simple for me. I expect the zone to collapse on their bigs, which will leave open shooters. If unc is knocking them down it will be very difficult to win. If they struggle we got a good chance.

We also gotta race back on D and set up the zone and make unc play half court offense. Similar to the 03 championship game against kansas. Cant let them get in the open court for easy layups and dunks, make them work to score.

 

[CorduroyG]

Also Indiana and notre dame are not good defensive teams, so hopefully carolina thinks we'll let them run up and down the court like those 2 teams did and will struggle when they realize we actually play defense.

 

[Orangemen]

Unlike the UVA and zaga game, we need to keep this a half-court game. We dont want to get into a run and gun game with these guys...especially considering their depth..they will smoke us. Also, we wont be able to rely on the press to save us in this game if we face a large deficit.

I think this was one of JB's focal points in the NC game in 2003. Get back on D and eliminate transition hoops as much as possible. I would bet that is a point of emphasis this time as well. And this team has been pretty good at that anyway. We had that one multi game streak where no opponents scored any fast break points on us. I think we'll hold up well against the fast break.

 

[LAOrange]

jackson is a zone killer though. thats a key matchup there, we need to win. he worries me.

Jackson's the kid with the floater. Take that away and make our shots, we win.

 

[We Are Syracuse]

B. Johnson is who worries me. I haven't seen him miss a shot <15' in all tournament. People who can make that shot consistently we struggle with. Very tough shot to make

 

[jgeorge322]

Jackson's the kid with the floater. Take that away and make our shots, we win.

he can shoot it front deep too. but that floater is tough to stop when hes like 6'8" or so.

 

[EastCoast2]

UNC started 10-12 from three vs. Indiana. With their skill down low, if they start 10-12 vs. us, we'll be down 25 a few minutes into the second half.

 

[cusetown1]

UNC started 10-12 from three vs. Indiana. With their skill down low, if they start 10-12 vs. us, we'll be down 25 a few minutes into the second half.

Its more likely they go 1-12.

 

[skurey]

Guarantee there will be wayyyy more UNC fans. Which is fine because there will be more shots of them crying.

 

[jgeorge322]

B. Johnson is who worries me. I haven't seen him miss a shot <15' in all tournament. People who can make that shot consistently we struggle with. Very tough shot to make

this is a given though. brice is going to get his. we need to stop the others from having good games, or get bj in foul trouble.

 

[cusetown1]

.37, .34, .28 . That's what their best 3 point shooters average, against the best 3 point defense in a very tough 3rd game to win. I'll takes us. All about the #3 that'll be the difference, either way. I'll take us.

 

[Orangefanforever]

SU can win this game. SU left many opportunities on the floor in Chapel Hill in February. A couple of turnover incidences come to mind. Two passes from G while bringing the ball up court that Kennedy Meeks intercepted for lay ups, and a turnover between G & Cooney at mid court that lead to easy points for Carolina. SU is playing its best now & I would argue so is Carolina. To me, TR & TL are still the keys as blocked shots, boards, & additional scoring is a must... besides the usual play by (TC/G/MR). And if anything else...the law of averages. NC has beaten SU three times in a row now dating back to last year. Time for payback in the most critical game. We are SU!!

 

[cusetown1]

Roberson is playing on a different level, I think he'll be able to hit the boards hard.

 

[longislandcuse]

Roberson is playing on a different level, I think he'll be able to hit the boards hard.

Roberson theme song for this tournament...

 

[zhanjuzi]

jackson is a zone killer though. thats a key matchup there, we need to win. he worries me.

He will get his .. stop the others ..