Don't freakout and this isn't hate speech

[GoSU96]

I'm as guilty as the next person envisioning being 6-1 after Pitt but this team needs to keep improving. *

Total Combined Rank (Total Offense + Total Defense) for SU post the Grobian error.

Yr    TOR    TDR    TCR    Wins
2009    94    37    131    4
2010    97    7    104    8
2011    90    64    154    5
2012    17    48    65    8
2013    85    33    118    7
2014    113    26    139    3
2015    106    51    157    ?

Second lowest for both total offense and total defense right now. 3-1 is great, but without significant improvement history doesn't project many more wins than what we have now.

* I get the instability at QB and overall youth and this isn't an attack on Shafer.

 

[OburgOrange]

Oh Lord

 

[FAL]

 

[RF2044]

I'm as guilty as the next person envisioning being 6-1 after Pitt but this team needs to keep improving. *

Total Combined Rank (Total Offense + Total Defense) for SU post the Grobian error.

Yr    TOR    TDR    TCR    Wins
2009    94    37    131    4
2010    97    7    104    8
2011    90    64    154    5
2012    17    48    65    8
2013    85    33    118    7
2014    113    26    139    3
2015    106    51    157    ?

Second lowest for both total offense and total defense right now. 3-1 is great, but without significant improvement history doesn't project many more wins than what we have now.

* I get the instability at QB and overall youth and this isn't an attack on Shafer.

Too small of a data set. How might those offensive numbers look if Dungey hadn't gotten injured in the first half against CMU, and we'd tacked on say three more TDs?

 

[GoSU96]

Too small of a data set. How might those offensive numbers look if Dungey hadn't gotten injured in the first half against CMU, and we'd tacked on say three more TDs?

It's got nothing to do with scoring. It's total yardage

 

[DoctorBombay]

I'm as guilty as the next person envisioning being 6-1 after Pitt but this team needs to keep improving. *

Total Combined Rank (Total Offense + Total Defense) for SU post the Grobian error.

Yr    TOR    TDR    TCR    Wins
2009    94    37    131    4
2010    97    7    104    8
2011    90    64    154    5
2012    17    48    65    8
2013    85    33    118    7
2014    113    26    139    3
2015    106    51    157    ?

Second lowest for both total offense and total defense right now. 3-1 is great, but without significant improvement history doesn't project many more wins than what we have now.

* I get the instability at QB and overall youth and this isn't an attack on Shafer.

 

[Nahson]

IM FREAKING OUT! But seriously, RF2044 is right. Too small of a sample size and the external factors so far have probably skewed that data. Dungey getting hurt after torching CMU in the first half, Playing against a top 10 team with a RB that most think could play in the NFL right now.

 

[RF2044]

It's got nothing to do with scoring. It's total yardage

Same point applies. We didn't get one TD in the second half against CMU. Dungey amasses fairly pedestrian yardage in relief if Hunt against RI.

Not remotely worried.

 

[CuseOnly]

It's got nothing to do with scoring. It's total yardage

It's Total Offense Rank and Total Defensive Rank is it not? Doesn't that take into account pretty much everything, not just yardage?

Wouldn't the column headers be TOY and TDY if it was only yardage?

 

[Chip]

Same point applies. We didn't get one TD in the second half against CMU. Dungey amasses fairly pedestrian yardage in relief if Hunt against RI. Not remotely worried.

Agree. We've played 16 quarters of football. Nearly 7 of those were with a QB who didn't take the 1st team snaps during that week's practice.

4 more were played by a walk on against LSU.

I think our offense is going to hit some walls this season but I don't think there's much to gain from the data so far.

 

[orangenauburn]

It's got nothing to do with scoring. It's total yardage

Useless if your efficient at specials, defense, field possession, and quick strikes from shortened field.

We average over 30 / game running what, less than 60 plays a game?

78 plays and 47 points
51 plays and 30 points
47 plays and 30 points
69 plays and 24 points

61 plays and 33 points average

 

[SWC75]

It's not the overall results that have people excited, (although three wins an a close game with LSU is certainly encouraging). It's what we've seen flashes of and what we are envisioning. The offense was just beginning to come together when Dungey was hurt and we have yet to really see a line up with all our best weapons, (Dungey, Fredericks, Phillips, Estime and Ismael) playing together for an extended period. I think that if we can finally get some good luck with injuries, we have a chance to really light up some scoreboards the rest of the way. Stats are very useful, (I certainly like to use them), but in this case they don't represent what this group may be capable of when they really get going.

 

[bcubs9497]

I'd like to know what goes into calculating TOR, TDR, and TCR. What's being weighted, and by what factors, etc?

At the end of it all, it's not yards, pass completions, etc, but the final score.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm as guilty as the next person envisioning being 6-1 after Pitt but this team needs to keep improving. * Total Combined Rank (Total Offense + Total Defense) for SU post the Grobian error. Yr TOR TDR TCR Wins 2009 94 37 131 4 2010 97 7 104 8 2011 90 64 154 5 2012 17 48 65 8 2013 85 33 118 7 2014 113 26 139 3 2015 106 51 157 ? Second lowest for both total offense and total defense right now. 3-1 is great, but without significant improvement history doesn't project many more wins than what we have now. * I get the instability at QB and overall youth and this isn't an attack on Shafer.

They run so few plays and play so slow that they're banking on a few big plays and white knuckling

It's going to be stressful

 

[TheCusian]

They run so few plays and play so slow that they're banking on a few big plays and white knuckling It's going to be stressful

So far.

 

[Millhouse]

I'd like to know what goes into calculating TOR, TDR, and TCR. What's being weighted, and by what factors, etc? At the end of it all, it's not yards, pass completions, etc, but the final score.

I think he is just showing their national rank in offense and defense then adding them up and sorting for combined rank in yards per game

Yards per play tells an optimistic story yards per game tells a pessimistic one. Odd year. But both correlate with points. It's a good predictor

 

[upperdeck]

the next 2 games will be more telling if we actually play a whole game with the QB we really want to play. we dumbed down the play calling vs RI, we limited it most of the wake game. we started running full out CMU then dumbed down the 2nd half and we dumbed down the start of the LSU game.

what is our goal ? make it 100 a quarter and thats not great but better than we have seen in years.

Dungey has played close to 10 quarters and did it 3/4 vs RI 2/4 vs Wake and 2/2 vs CMU

the 2nd half of wake and first half of CMU we had 530 yds.

we also had a 200 yd half in all 4 games , three of which were 2nd halves.

baby steps.

 

[PAcuse]

I found something interesting on ESPN when looking up total ratings that include Offense, Defense, and Special Teams. Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season. Rank is among all D1 schools. Link for anyone that would like it (http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/stEfficiency/tab/efficiency)

Rank Off Def ST Overall
2015: 25 45.0 53.3 69.0 54.1
2014: 110 24.1 63.6 38.1 39.0
2013: 57 39.9 56.4 52.6 48.0
2012: 99 63.8 55.1 38.7 59.9
2011: 98 42.0 41.6 38.3 37.5
2010: 53 40.3 59.5 54.4 51.1
2009: 72 36.8 42.0 46.7 36.4

By looking at this we should be looking at 8 plus wins and we are way ahead of where we have been the last few years.


***EDIT**** I can't get it to format right, sorry for everything being smashed toghether

 

[cuse309]

I'm as guilty as the next person envisioning being 6-1 after Pitt but this team needs to keep improving. *

Total Combined Rank (Total Offense + Total Defense) for SU post the Grobian error.

Yr    TOR    TDR    TCR    Wins
2009    94    37    131    4
2010    97    7    104    8
2011    90    64    154    5
2012    17    48    65    8
2013    85    33    118    7
2014    113    26    139    3
2015    106    51    157    ?

Second lowest for both total offense and total defense right now. 3-1 is great, but without significant improvement history doesn't project many more wins than what we have now.

* I get the instability at QB and overall youth and this isn't an attack on Shafer.

None of those teams were as young as this years teams in key spots. Most of our key guys seem to be sophomore and freshmen. Their ceiling is high, and will improve throughout the year. The biggest of those is Eric "Spongey" Dungey. (you know, cause his brain is a sponge...). I feel like his ceiling is insanely high, and we are just scratching the surface with his potential.

 

[CuseTroop]

I think we would be ranked a little higher in the offensive category if we had more than 18 yards of offense in the 2nd half on the CMU game with our walk on.

 

[GoSU96]

Bunch of ears in the fingers, na, na, na, na, here.

I didn't say it wouldn't improve. But if it stays where it is it doesn't bode well. That's all this is about.

It's important because Millhouse is right, it's predictive.

Since 2009 157 teams have a combined rank value of between 150 and 199.

The win totals for those 157 teams are:

1 - 10 win team,
1 - 9 win team,
7 - 8 win teams,
12 - 7 win teams,
18 - 6 win teams, and
118 - with 5 wins or less.

That's why it's a concern.

 

[anomander]

Without looking up stats one thing I think we have been better at than the past is RZ efficiency, specifically scoring TD's. Wonder if that's a factor that favors this team?


And wow that 2012 team was good. We should have had 10 wins. Can almost say we underachieved. And Pugh didn't even play the whole year.

 

[RF2044]

Bunch of ears in the fingers, na, na, na, na, here.

I didn't say it wouldn't improve. But if it stays where it is it doesn't bode well. That's all this is about.

It's important because Millhouse is right, it's predictive.

Since 2009 157 have a combined rank value of between 150 and 199.

The win totals for those 157 teams are:

1 - 10 win team,
1 - 9 win team,
7 - 8 win teams,
12 - 7 win teams,
18 - 6 win teams, and
118 - with 5 wins or less.

That's why it's a concern.

People who don't understand quantitative analysis should refrain from using data to sound the alarm.

Especially when they fail to account for contextual factors that put outlier data in context within a limited data subset.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

People who don't understand quantitative analysis should refrain from using data to make predictions.

Especially when they fail to account for contextual factors that explain outlier data in a limited data subset.

I get what you're saying. Football is a game of small sample sizes though. Hard to draw any real conclusions, but you've got to start somewhere.

I'm content to leave it at there's still a lot of work to do. We might be lucky that the teams on our schedule aren't inclined to attack the weakness of our defense. We do need to run more plays though I think. I get why we've been conservative, and the big plays on offense are a welcome change. If we're looking to play ball control though we could benefit from having more TOP, and it's hard to get that without more plays. I don't think the big plays are accounting for all of the imbalance in TOP.

 

[GoSU96]

People who don't understand quantitative analysis should refrain from using data to sound the alarm.

Especially when they fail to account for contextual factors that put outlier data in context within a limited data subset.

Just stop. I said it's a concern, I didn't say the sky is falling.

I didn't say where they are now is fixed in stone. But it is where they are. I even acknowledged the factors that are driving it to an extent.

And if they are in the same place at the end of the year the outlier would be a winning season.