don't shoot messenger, some stat rankings think we're not bad

[Millhouse]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

Syracuse statistical profile

39th offense,
77th defense,
27th special teams (they must really like cole murphy)

I'm not buying it, i'm just supplying it

favored to win in 3 games the rest of the way, but bc and vt are barely favored

he thinks we have very bad turnover luck and good passing success rate with lousy passing explosiveness

rushing is the opposite, bad success rate, good explosiveness

those stats have us at 59% chance to beat uconn

 

[Alsacs]

Our D wasn't that bad this past game. USF won the field position battle the whole game. We started inside the 20 almost every series and they started from the 35 or better pretty much the entire 2nd quarter.
We got yards but because we are going on long fields it was worthless yardage as it related to scoring. We need to win field position battles as those lost yards are huge for the scoreboard.

The rush D was bad but the USF QB wasn't that good at passing. Louisville could have thrown for 500 yards but that QB is a Heisman guy. The offense is getting yards but is stalling. If we only have to 30-50 yards to get into FG range we will get more scores.

We should beat UConn unless we turn the ball over. Which we are due for a couple of stupid turnovers as outside of the Dungey under throw we haven't had any.

 

[Millhouse]

let's use these probabilities

except let's assume beat UConn and Wake (Must wins)

using those probabilities for the rest of the games puts us at 2.67 expected wins

glass half full/empty view here. if you beat uconn and wake, you have a shot at 6 wins but you're probably going to fall short but it's close

 

[Millhouse]

Our D wasn't that bad this past game. USF won the field position battle the whole game. We started inside the 20 almost every series and they started from the 35 or better pretty much the entire 2nd quarter.
We got yards but because we are going on long fields it was worthless yardage as it related to scoring. We need to win field position battles as those lost yards are huge for the scoreboard.

The rush D was bad but the USF QB wasn't that good at passing. Louisville could have thrown for 500 yards but that QB is a Heisman guy. The offense is getting yards but is stalling. If we only have to 30-50 yards to get into FG range we will get more scores.

We should beat UConn unless we turn the ball over. Which we are due for a couple of stupid turnovers as outside of the Dungey under throw we haven't had any.

7 yards per play against USF is still pretty bad. hell, the field position might've kept that number down (caps how far their big plays could go)

 

[Chip]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

Syracuse statistical profile

39th offense,
77th defense,
27th special teams (they must really like cole murphy)

I'm not buying it, i'm just supplying it

favored to win in 3 games the rest of the way, but bc and vt are barely favored

he thinks we have very bad turnover luck and good passing success rate with lousy passing explosiveness

rushing is the opposite, bad success rate, good explosiveness

those stats have us at 59% chance to beat uconn

Assume you meant Wake, not VT.

I think 5 is the high water mark, and that means limited mistakes. There's enough in this tank to beat UConn, Wake, BC, NC State. Although we have zero idea how our team reacts on the road. Hopefully (unlike last year) it's all business on the road.

I just don't see any other wins. VT looks like they've got their act together. ND, Clemson, FSU, yeah... Pitt looks better than us.

 

[Millhouse]

Assume you meant Wake, not VT.

I think 5 is the high water mark, and that means limited mistakes. There's enough in this tank to beat UConn, Wake, BC, NC State. Although we have zero idea how our team reacts on the road. Hopefully (unlike last year) it's all business on the road.

I just don't see any other wins. VT looks like they've got their act together. ND, Clemson, FSU, yeah... Pitt looks better than us.

i don't have much hope for pitt

this ranking has us favored vs uconn coin flip to wake and a small dog to vt

 

[GoSU96]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

Syracuse statistical profile

39th offense,
77th defense,
27th special teams (they must really like cole murphy)

I'm not buying it, i'm just supplying it

favored to win in 3 games the rest of the way, but bc and vt are barely favored

he thinks we have very bad turnover luck and good passing success rate with lousy passing explosiveness

rushing is the opposite, bad success rate, good explosiveness

those stats have us at 59% chance to beat uconn

Murph is the man.

I wouldn't mind having the defense end the year there and think there is substantial upside on the offense. 25th and 77th is a six win season.

Get by this week and beat Wake and VT becomes a huge swing game.

 

[Finwad32]

I love stats, and for the most part they typically translate... But, I've come to the point where only 1 stat matters to me.

 

[TheCusian]

Our D wasn't that bad this past game. USF won the field position battle the whole game. We started inside the 20 almost every series and they started from the 35 or better pretty much the entire 2nd quarter.
We got yards but because we are going on long fields it was worthless yardage as it related to scoring. We need to win field position battles as those lost yards are huge for the scoreboard.

The rush D was bad but the USF QB wasn't that good at passing. Louisville could have thrown for 500 yards but that QB is a Heisman guy. The offense is getting yards but is stalling. If we only have to 30-50 yards to get into FG range we will get more scores.

We should beat UConn unless we turn the ball over. Which we are due for a couple of stupid turnovers as outside of the Dungey under throw we haven't had any.

We are due some TO's too. USF fumbled 3-4 times and recovered all of them.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think VA Tech is the hardest game left of the winnable games. They can put up some points and make some stops. UConn, Wake, BC cannot put up points. NC State and Pitt can't stop people, but can score. VA Tech is the most complete team left.

 

[TheCusian]

One thing to keep in mind, if this O starts to click; the points catch up with the other stats due to an increase in efficiency - those probabilities might shift a touch.

If I were BC, I'd be mortified by giving up 49. That's a way worse performance than we had vs Louisville.

 

[Millhouse]

I love stats, and for the most part they typically translate... But, I've come to the point where only 1 stat matters to me.

the stat you care about doesn't exist yet because they haven't played those games yet

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Gonna ask this so relax everyone but 5 wins may get is bowling this year but have no idea where our score is?

 

[shandeezy7]

Defensive issues aside, we need to start turning offensive yardage into points. Too many drives stalling in between the 40's. Even in the Colgate game, a number of drives stalled out and we settled for FG's. Can't expect to win many games when you combine that with our porous D.

 

[Chip]

the stat you care about doesn't exist yet because they haven't played those games yet

I still care about the yards per game. You don't get 500 yards by accident.

Clean up the things you can clean up (Estime's senseless penalty where he seemed to want to take out aggression, the illegal motions, the fumbles, the INTs), and the points will come.

When you get 300 yards, the points don't come.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I still care about the yards per game. You don't get 500 yards by accident.

Clean up the things you can clean up (Estime's senseless penalty where he seemed to want to take out aggression, the illegal motions, the fumbles, the INTs), and the points will come.

When you get 300 yards, the points don't come.

Must have missed it what did estime do?

 

[Chip]

Must have missed it what did estime do?

Long catch and run by ET. Estimate was behind the play, found a guy who really had no chance of catching the play and dropped him. It wasn't overly violent, I mean it's Estime. But still it was just far enough away from the play to be called. We still had a 1st and 10, but from their 43 instead of their 28. Next play, Estime (or Phillips) is stepping up to get on the line while Mo Neal is in motion. We didn't wait for Neal to get set. Another 5 back. Promising drive eventually leads to INT that never would have been a playcall.

 

[PhatOrange]

Must have missed it what did estime do?

killer penalty. After a big AT catch and run Bris decleated a kid away from the play. -15 after the play. But it was a 35/40 gain to the 30 yard line +/- and then backed up to the 45.

 

[Millhouse]

Defensive issues aside, we need to start turning offensive yardage into points. Too many drives stalling in between the 40's. Even in the Colgate game, a number of drives stalled out and we settled for FG's. Can't expect to win many games when you combine that with our porous D.

i think our poor yards per play is the reason for that. we have a million possessions where we get a first down or two but eventually crap out.

 

[longtimefan]

killer penalty. After a big AT catch and run Bris decleated a kid away from the play. -15 after the play. But it was a 35/40 gain to the 30 yard line +/- and then backed up to the 45.

I watched the replay on that. The hit was well behind the play, but not after the play. Questionable call, in my opinion.

 

[TheCusian]

I still care about the yards per game. You don't get 500 yards by accident.

Clean up the things you can clean up (Estime's senseless penalty where he seemed to want to take out aggression, the illegal motions, the fumbles, the INTs), and the points will come.

When you get 300 yards, the points don't come.

This.

The idea that the offense is failing because YPP is showing inefficiencies is silly. The yards are proof that something good is happening. Those yards will turn to points one of these weeks.

Frankly, what we are doing right now is really hard to do. Statistically speaking we're an anomaly.

 

[Millhouse]

I still care about the yards per game. You don't get 500 yards by accident.

Clean up the things you can clean up (Estime's senseless penalty where he seemed to want to take out aggression, the illegal motions, the fumbles, the INTs), and the points will come.

When you get 300 yards, the points don't come.

something is screwy this year. houston's yards per play is worse than our's. UB's is better.

louisville 1st
USF 11th
NC 21st,
ND 49
clemson 73rd
pitt 86th
SU 89th
wake 104
uconn 105
BC 120

 

[Millhouse]

This.

The idea that the offense is failing because YPP is showing inefficiencies is silly. The yards are proof that something good is happening. Those yards will turn to points one of these weeks.

Frankly, what we are doing right now is really hard to do. Statistically speaking we're an anomaly.

if you have 50 possessions where you gain 10 yards, you get 500 yards and score zero.

the offense is bad. that's ok, i know the system is good.

it's not like we're running the ball 5 yards a pop successfully, hard to explain away a lousy ypp when you throw this much

the total yards are proof we get the ball a lot given our YPP. too bad it's after kickoffs and not turnovers.

 

[PhatOrange]

I watched the replay on that. The hit was well behind the play, but not after the play. Questionable call, in my opinion.

away from the play. we were assessed 15 after the play.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

away from the play. we were assessed 15 after the play.

It was during the play. You aren't allowed to hit a guy away from the ball anymore in football. Back in the day it was a legal cheap shot. He wasn't called for hitting the guy late but for unnecessary roughness.