Duke opens as a ten point favorite | Syracusefan.com

Duke opens as a ten point favorite

two3zone said:
On what side?
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AZOrange said:
Kind of a strange line honestly
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When a line smells fishy, you're supposed to run towards the smell, which isn't a good sign for our boys. But of course, who knows
 
As expected for an opening line.

Per KP, Duke is 8.8 net points per 100 possessions better than Syracuse - so 6 points per game of 70 possessions -- add the standard 3.5 home point advantage, and you get 9.5.

I think the line will slip a bit from the opening line, because of performances this weekend. Maybe down to 9.
 
No one respects us, understandably so, but this team is better than people think.

Looks like there is some value for SU bettors here.
 
Cameron Fieldhouse + losing two games in a row + K ready to go ballistic = a very tough/close game.
 
[QUOTE="realorange, post: Duke is Duke ?!
They're on TV more then leave it to beaver reruns!

If You don't know that line I can't help you.

Love Cuse covering and winning out right.

Jefferson out is a big deal[/QUOTE]
 
My Duke friends are not confident. Granted, it's a small sample, but believe me when I tell you that this worried state is not typical for them!
 
Do not touch that line. Both teams aren't deep and will have quick turnarounds.

One of Duke's strengths is shooting the ball. Until we see them against the zone I have no clue how they will perform offensively.
We can win this outright but I wouldn't take the points either.
 
Alsacs said:
Do not touch that line. Both teams aren't deep and will have quick turnarounds.

One of Duke's strengths is shooting the ball. Until we see them against the zone I have no clue how they will perform offensively.
We can win this outright but I wouldn't take the points either.
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I would take 11.5 for sure
 
I can see a close game with Duke pulling away at the end because SU will be whistled for everything in the 2nd half.
 
Really wish obtaining tickets to this game were much easier. Would love to make the drive from Charlotte up to Duke.
 
I thought the line would open at around 8, this seems really high, and it's jumping so people are jumpig on Duke

Scoresandodds.com has a power rating feature, and says Duke should be a 15pt favorite, they even marked this game with a "Green star" which essentially means a guaranteed Duke cover -- are we missing something?
 
jncuse said:
As expected for an opening line.

Per KP, Duke is 8.8 net points per 100 possessions better than Syracuse - so 6 points per game of 70 possessions -- add the standard 3.5 home point advantage, and you get 9.5.

I think the line will slip a bit from the opening line, because of performances this weekend. Maybe down to 9.
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Almost like that HCA matters a lot.

It's expected from casual fans but even from diehards here the consensus is always laughably predictable:
Home favorite* = line too high, seems fishy.
Home underdog = line too low, seems fishy.

*Exception can occur when it's a very slight favorite in which case "why is that team favored?" [Insert disrespect to road team or other wild theory that says most marks who don't know any better have an inflated opinion of the home team].

Rinse and repeat for every single sporting event on every single forum every single year forever.
 
jdubs30 said:
they even marked this game with a "Green star" which essentially means a guaranteed Duke cover -- are we missing something?
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Yes, it seems some are forgetting that the zone falls into the Dukies' strength -- jump shooting without duress. Greyson and co. will catch, square and shoot all night. They won't need interior play because they won't be missing from deep like Wake and BC did. Did we all forget that our zone sucked against them even when we were 25-0? Wish I could be more optimistic but maybe I'm overselling Duke from past experience. Vegas would seem to agree with my line of thinking.
 
97% of the action is on duke straight up to win. That's just insane. They just dropped to #20, we were at one point ranked 16th. We have Jimmy back, he wants this one bad, in Cameron. We need a W to get back in the tourney convo. We just beat wake by almost THIRTY, two days ago, and traveled a few miles across the state. Did I leave anything out?

Oh and Duke is without Amile Jefferson, a key player who would normally slice up the zone.

There is money to be made here, am I wrong?
 
Last four games, Duke has shot:
7-21 (3pt), 13-25 (FT)
15-36, 12-17
8-22, 6-13
8-23, 9-16

For a total of 38 3PT/102 3PTA (37%) and 40/71 from the line. Reality is that Duke hasn't really done all that much against SU's zone. Nothing where they blew up the zone. Last year Okafor had his way with Christmas.

In reality, the Duke defense has pretty much shut down weak SU offenses. Last four SU FG%: 30.6%, 43.3%, 38.7%, 57.4% (OT win in the dome where SU couldn't miss).
 
syr14 said:
There is money to be made here, am I wrong?
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Think you'd need a lot of balls to bet Syracuse on the money line. Unless there is some sort of inside information that people don't know about you'd have to be insane to take Syracuse straight up in this game, unfortunately.
 
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