ESPN INsider. Is Burke still the drafts best PG?

[Captnhowdy]

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nba_draft&id=9315354

Chad Ford was at Westbury with trainer Jay Hernandez watching MCW, CJ McCollum in preparation for team workouts coming in June.

He seems pretty high on MCW, his only doubt about him is his jump shot. And he said the shot was looking decent in 1-on-none drills 55% behind NBA line, 65% college, and 80% within 15 ft. Not elite #, but managable for a PG. The trainer said there wasn't anything wrong with the mechanics of his shot. Just that he needs to work on his release and make it more consistent.

He goes on to say that MCW is #1 already on some of the teams boards. And could go as high to the Pelicans out magic, ahead of Burke.

 

[jdubs30]

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nba_draft&id=9315354

Chad Ford was at Westbury with trainer Jay Hernandez watching MCW, CJ McCollum in preparation for team workouts coming in June.

He seems pretty high on MCW, his only doubt about him is his jump shot. And he said the shot was looking decent in 1-on-none drills 55% behind NBA line, 65% college, and 80% within 15 ft. Not elite #, but managable for a PG. The trainer said there wasn't anything wrong with the mechanics of his shot. Just that he needs to work on his release and make it more consistent.

He goes on to say that MCW is #1 already on some of the teams boards. And could go as high to the Pelicans out magic, ahead of Burke.

#1 PG or #1 overall?

 

[RF2044]

#1 PG or #1 overall?

I'd interpret that as #1 PG.

 

[Alsacs]

I have been saying this for a while Burke has very high bust probability if he is being drafted as a PG. He seems like at best a Jameer Nelson type PG. He is small, can shoot really well, but isn't athletic and never impressed me as a PG. He was a SG playing PG because of his height. Not many 6 ft PGs in the NBA are all-stars because of all the athletes playing the position. Chris Paul is obviously the outlier, along with Isiah Thomas all-time, but I wouldn't draft Burke before PGs Oladipo, Carter-Williams or SG McLenmore. Carter-Williams flaw which is shooting is way more correctable than Burke's lack of height and athleticism to play NBA PG.

I would say Michigan had more NBA talent than Syracuse this past year, and while MCW struggled in the Final Four I thought Burke struggled worse and honestly showed me he won't be an excellent NBA player because of his lack of height.

 

[Melancer46]

^^^ agreed with all of that except you listing Oladipo as a PG lol.

 

[Captnhowdy]

#1 PG or #1 overall?

Ya Chad Ford meant PG. But if a team wants him bad enough, and either Magic or Pelicans start looking to take him. I cauld see a team trade for Clevelands #1 pick to take him. But that's just me.

 

[Jasoncuse]

I'm not sure I can see either MCW or Burke having great careers. Both could stick around for a long time, but I don't think either is close to an All-Star at any point.

I hope MCW works his tail off at improving his handle and becoming a lockdown defender. He can be a pass first NBA PG, or at worst the top PG backup for a good team, but needs to be strong with the ball and develop some elite skill (I think it'll have to be defense). I don't think his shot or scoring ability will ever be above mediocre.

 

[Captnhowdy]

He has very good scoring ability around the rim. And he has the ability to get around defenders. He should be fine scoring. Seeing as he is a PG, and shoul.dn't need to score 20 a game

 

[SoBeCuse]

^^^ agreed with all of that except you listing Oladipo as a PG lol.

Oladipo doesn't have a position that's his problem. He'll be a solid player but I see him more as a Tony Allen-type.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I have been saying this for a while Burke has very high bust probability if he is being drafted as a PG. He seems like at best a Jameer Nelson type PG. He is small, can shoot really well, but isn't athletic and never impressed me as a PG. He was a SG playing PG because of his height. Not many 6 ft PGs in the NBA are all-stars because of all the athletes playing the position. Chris Paul is obviously the outlier, along with Isiah Thomas all-time, but I wouldn't draft Burke before PGs Oladipo, Carter-Williams or SG McLenmore. Carter-Williams flaw which is shooting is way more correctable than Burke's lack of height and athleticism to play NBA PG.

I would say Michigan had more NBA talent than Syracuse this past year, and while MCW struggled in the Final Four I thought Burke struggled worse and honestly showed me he won't be an excellent NBA player because of his lack of height.

Yeah, I agree. That Final 4 was so frustrating. We just needed more guys to be able to create their own shot. Defense was mostly good as usual. Just the presence of a scoring big man would be huge. If DaJuan improves then we are looking at a very nice season. Michigan had an edge there with the NBA talent as you mentioned.

 

[alphaorange]

He has very good scoring ability around the rim. And he has the ability to get around defenders. He should be fine scoring. Seeing as he is a PG, and shoul.dn't need to score 20 a game

Couldn't disagree more. I thought he was mostly weak at finishing at the rim but for a few highlight dunks. And in the NBA, if he should get by his man, there will be help. That jumping into the air and finding a man to pass to will bite him in the ass with the size and speed at the next level. He may get drafted high, but I think he will struggle.

 

[sheaj]

Couldn't disagree more. I thought he was mostly weak at finishing at the rim but for a few highlight dunks. And in the NBA, if he should get by his man, there will be help. That jumping into the air and finding a man to pass to will bite him in the ass with the size and speed at the next level. He may get drafted high, but I think he will struggle.

Looks like Chad Ford and NBA scouts disagree with you... not to mention stats.

Carter-Williams was terrific when he got to the rim at Syracuse. Last season, 31 percent of his shots were at the rim and he connected on 62 percent of them. The ability to get by your man and to the rim is a critical skill in the NBA, and after watching Carter-Williams do it all season against some of the best college defenders in the country, scouts are pretty confident he can do it at the next level.​

 

[HouseOfCuse]

Seems like he is rising up the charts like Dion last year. Good for him.

 

[alphaorange]

Looks like Chad Ford and NBA scouts disagree with you... not to mention stats.

Carter-Williams was terrific when he got to the rim at Syracuse. Last season, 31 percent of his shots were at the rim and he connected on 62 percent of them. The ability to get by your man and to the rim is a critical skill in the NBA, and after watching Carter-Williams do it all season against some of the best college defenders in the country, scouts are pretty confident he can do it at the next level.​

Good for them and him. I always root for our guys. I just don't happen to agree with their assessment. I hope they are right and I am wrong.

 

[sheaj]

Good for them and him. I always root for our guys. I just don't happen to agree with their assessment. I hope they are right and I am wrong.

I have to say, I was surprised by the 62% number. That is fantastic for a PG.

 

[alphaorange]

I have to say, I was surprised by the 62% number. That is fantastic for a PG.

62% AT THE RIM is fantastic? I would not have thought so. Who knew? To me that says he misses almost half his layups.

Edit: I suppose it depends on the definition of "at the rim". I see it as inside of 6' but maybe they mean inside the paint?

I would think it would have to go down in the NBA but here is more relevant data from a recent study:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=PG&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=0

 

[sheaj]

62% AT THE RIM is fantastic? I would not have thought so. Who knew? To me that says he misses almost half his layups.

Yep.

I dont care enough to dig too deep, but check out these 2005 stats from 82games.com:

At the Rim" shots
Zone 15: at the rim layups
Most attempts
Tm Player FGM FGA FG%
PHI Iverson 313 539 .581
MIA Wade 256 481 .532
SA Parker 297 457 .650
NY Marbury 265 432 .613
CLE James 258 410 .629

 

[Captnhowdy]

I have to say, I was surprised by the 62% number. That is fantastic for a PG.

I wasn't that suprised. He was always finishing when he got to the rim.

 

[MonsterGame]

62% AT THE RIM is fantastic? I would not have thought so. Who knew? To me that says he misses almost half his layups.

This is humorous. Now I suppose if one is shooting 62% during the layup line drills, that would be cause for concern. But getting to the rim in a college and more-so an NBA game comes with a significant amount of contestedness. (Admittedly, contestedness is not a word, but it does happen when getting to the rim in actually games. Hence, the lower than layup line shooting percentages.)

 

[alphaorange]

This is humorous. Now I suppose if one is shooting 62% during the layup line drills, that would be cause for concern. But getting to the rim in a college and more-so an NBA game comes with a significant amount of contestedness. (Admittedly, contestedness is not a word, but it does happen when getting to the rim in actually games. Hence, the lower than layup line shooting percentages.)

It's about average in the NBA. Now it remains to be seen if he can climb a level and maintain that.

 

[JrodCuse]

It's about average for Shaq, not a PG. That is Lebron/Durant/Melo/Wade Territory, % wise.

 

[RF2044]

MCW has a lot to improve upon. But he's got rare size for a PG and very good vision as a passer. Will be interesting to see if he goes earlier than expected as a developmental / potential pick.

As I stated in another thread, I watched the Indiana / Marquette games over the weekend, and seeing how he performed in those games, its not hard to envision why some GMs are probably bully on his long term potential--especially if he improves on his ability to knock down shots. He was a difference maker in both of those games. Juxtaposed with the Michigan game, when he was quite poor offensively [and he wasn't alone].

 

[alphaorange]

It's about average for Shaq, not a PG. That is Lebron/Durant/Melo/Wade Territory, % wise.

Feel free to check the link I provided

 

[sheaj]

Feel free to check the link I provided

I'm not sure we can assume his % will go down. As a rookie, yeah there is a good chance. But it's not like we're talking about a senior pg who started for 3 years. Syracuse also didn't have a threat inside to keep defenders from rotating over. I think there is a MUCH better chance that it improves given defensive scheme, supporting cast and the lack of Big East refs. As he improves and matures, this could be one of his better traits.

Regardless, let's assume he stays at 62%. Of the high volume guys:

Westbrook - 61.6% on 6.5 attempts
T Evans - 63.2% on 6 attempts
T Parker - 68.8% on 5.4 att
M Ellis - 61.7% on 5.2 att
Lawson - 61.7% on 5.1 att
Sessions - 53.6% on 5 att
J Wall - 60.5% on 5 att
Rondo - 62.1% on 4.8 att
Kemba - 56.7% on 4.7 att
Conley - 53.3% on 4.7 att
K Irving - 59.2% on 4.6 att
Lillard - 56.6% on 4.2 att
B Jennings - 52.4% on 3.7 att
D Williams - 70% on 2.9 att
I Thomas - 70% on 2.9 att
Paul - 69.5 % on 2.2 att

Aside from Parker, Williams, C Paul and Isaiah Thomas (really??), 62% is up there with the rest that ave at least 2 attempts per game. I left a few off too. Like Dragic, just trying to give a feel for like-minded players.

Take it a step further and start breaking down the % of rim FGA that come off a pass (rather than a drive) and you notice that MCW was assisted at the rim only 22% of his attempts. Significantly less than most the other PG's not named Paul or Williams.

Point being... if MCW maintains a 62% at the rim and at least 2 attempts per game... He will be an excellent PG in the league.

 

[alphaorange]

I'm not sure we can assume his % will go down. As a rookie, yeah there is a good chance. But it's not like we're talking about a senior pg who started for 3 years. Syracuse also didn't have a threat inside to keep defenders from rotating over. I think there is a MUCH better chance that it improves given defensive scheme, supporting cast and the lack of Big East refs. As he improves and matures, this could be one of his better traits.

Regardless, let's assume he stays at 62%. Of the high volume guys:

Westbrook - 61.6% on 6.5 attempts
T Evans - 63.2% on 6 attempts
T Parker - 68.8% on 5.4 att
M Ellis - 61.7% on 5.2 att
Lawson - 61.7% on 5.1 att
Sessions - 53.6% on 5 att
J Wall - 60.5% on 5 att
Rondo - 62.1% on 4.8 att
Kemba - 56.7% on 4.7 att
Conley - 53.3% on 4.7 att
K Irving - 59.2% on 4.6 att
Lillard - 56.6% on 4.2 att
B Jennings - 52.4% on 3.7 att
D Williams - 70% on 2.9 att
I Thomas - 70% on 2.9 att
Paul - 69.5 % on 2.2 att

Aside from Parker, Williams, C Paul and Isaiah Thomas (really??), 62% is up there with the rest that ave at least 2 attempts per game. I left a few off too. Like Dragic, just trying to give a feel for like-minded players.

Take it a step further and start breaking down the % of rim FGA that come off a pass (rather than a drive) and you notice that MCW was assisted at the rim only 22% of his attempts. Significantly less than most the other PG's not named Paul or Williams.

Point being... if MCW maintains a 62% at the rim and at least 2 attempts per game... He will be an excellent PG in the league.

Not trying to go back and forth but I cannot believe that his (or anyone's) finishing at the rim will not go down from college to the NBA. The players are all much bigger, much stronger, much more athletic, and just simply better defenders. If he stays at 62%, it means he either got much stronger, much better, or had a crap load of breakaways....imo, of course.