Class of 2017 Even if we get super lucky

[IthacaMatt]

And get Quade Green at the point, Hamidou Diallo at SG, Jordan Tucker at SF and Nick Richards at C - a hopeful but realistic list - do you realize we would still only have 10 guys on the roster for 2017? I think we would still be looking at a grad transfer or two again next year.

With no defections at all, in 2017 we would have:

Juniors: Tyler Lydon, Pascal Chukwu, Frank Howard

Sophomores: Tyus Battle, Matt Moyer, Taurean Thompson

Freshmen??

We obviously need a big class of 4 or 5 to make up for early defections next year. It's a crucial year, obviously. But we do seem to put together those big 5 man classes every few years.

Even if we load up next year, to keep a program healthy, you need 3 guys per class moving forward who are contributors, not projects.

If we pull all four of our top targets (at least, as I've been reading the tea leaves), we would look like this:

C: Chuwu, Richards
F: Lydon?, Moyer, Thompson, Tucker
G: Battle?, Green, Diallo, Howard

Looking pretty good.

 

[pfister1]

And you are assuming that neither Battle or Lydon are early departures, which could easily happen with one or the other or both.

 

[IthacaMatt]

And you are assuming that neither Battle or Lydon are early departures, which could easily happen with one or the other or both.

Of course those are the 2 most likely to leave. We'll see how much Rico has built up his body over the summer, and we'll see how well Battle handles the point. Dion and MCW really benefited from that second year in the program.

Did you notice what Boeheim said about Mali? He said, it's great he went in the first round and we wish him the best of luck. But you only get one chance, and they will give you a year or two, and then they move on to the next guy. So when your chance comes, you have to be ready.

Will Mali be ready? We don't know , but he got his chance in the first round and not many guys ever get to that level. So we hope he can take his chance.

 

[Shark58]

la la Bomba

 

[Trueblue25]

Tucker, Lydon, Thompson, Battle and Moyer getting set up by grade A dime dishes like Green and Frank? My gawd.

 

[pfister1]

Of course those are the 2 most likely to leave. We'll see how much Rico has built up his body over the summer, and we'll see how well Battle handles the point. Dion and MCW really benefited from that second year in the program.

Did you notice what Boeheim said about Mali? He said, it's great he went in the first round and we wish him the best of luck. But you only get one chance, and they will give you a year or two, and then they move on to the next guy. So when your chance comes, you have to be ready.

Will Mali be ready? We don't know , but he got his chance in the first round and not many guys ever get to that level. So we hope he can take his chance.

I'm beginning to think that JB sounds foolishly stubborn on this point. We've had multiple examples of guys in recent years who weren't "ready" by his standards that go and are first round draft picks. I don't think we have an example of a guy who wasn't "ready" who stays and manages to carve out a long and productive NBA career because he got that extra seasoning in college. The more I watch this dance the more I think these guys are better off going whenever there is some interest. Maybe Lydon will be the first to prove out JB's side of the argument??

 

[maxxyz]

I'm beginning to think that JB sounds foolishly stubborn on this point. We've had multiple examples of guys in recent years who weren't "ready" by his standards that go and are first round draft picks. I don't think we have an example of a guy who wasn't "ready" who stays and manages to carve out a long and productive NBA career because he got that extra seasoning in college. The more I watch this dance the more I think these guys are better off going whenever there is some interest. Maybe Lydon will be the first to prove out JB's side of the argument??

JB is correct; Mali isn't physically ready for the rigors of the NBA. But he was in a good position to get drafted. Now he has two years to get himself to a level where he can get a 2nd contract.

Another year would have helped, but you have to strike while the iron is hot.

 

[RF2044]

JB is correct; Mali isn't physically ready for the rigors of the NBA. But he was in a good position to get drafted. Now he has two years to get himself to a level where he can get a 2nd contract.

Another year would have helped, but you have to strike while the iron is hot.

Not to mention, that theory is proven by the very team Mali got drafted by. In 3 of the last 4 years, Sacramento has drafted young players to fill their hole at 2G--McLemore and Stauskus--with high lottery picks. They've already shipped one out, they're on the verge of giving up on the other, and just drafted Mali to fill the void.

I don't watch Sacramento play, so it is entirely possible that McLemore just sucks, is deficient somehow, or whatever. But he was a young prospect with tons of potential who "wasn't ready" by JB's definition, it is year 3 and he's already being replaced for not actualizing it.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I'm beginning to think that JB sounds foolishly stubborn on this point. We've had multiple examples of guys in recent years who weren't "ready" by his standards that go and are first round draft picks. I don't think we have an example of a guy who wasn't "ready" who stays and manages to carve out a long and productive NBA career because he got that extra seasoning in college. The more I watch this dance the more I think these guys are better off going whenever there is some interest. Maybe Lydon will be the first to prove out JB's side of the argument??

I think he's adjusting his language and strategy slightly - now he talks about whether or not you are ready for your chance, not just can you get picked in the first round (or lottery). I think that's a smart move on his part.

 

[pfister1]

Not to mention, that theory is proven by the very team Mali got drafted by. In 3 of the last 4 years, Sacramento has drafted young players to fill their hole at 2G--McLemore and Stauskus--with high lottery picks. They've already shipped one out, they're on the verge of giving up on the other, and just drafted Mali to fill the void.

I don't watch Sacramento play, so it is entirely possible that McLemore just sucks, is deficient somehow, or whatever. But he was a young prospect with tons of potential who "wasn't ready" by JB's definition, it is year 3 and he's already being replaced for not actualizing it.

But isn't that the wrong side of the argument? Aren't you making the argument for why the NBA teams are stupid to burn money on these guys at the point they do, not why the guys are wrong to go when they have the chance. Which incidentally is the side of the argument that JB is on.

There is no way to know what might have been different for McLemore or Stauskus if they had stayed in school other than (i) they wouldn't have pocketed the money that they did and (ii) they would likely be 30 +/- credit hours closer to having degrees than they are. Would they have been drafted the following year????? If they were, would they have signed for more, less, the same amount???? Would they have led Kansas or Michigan to NCAA tournament success?????

There are no guarantees and given how few guys have ultimate success in the NBA, I'm beginning to think that the "he isn't ready" argument is absolute crap. If you are likely to get drafted and receive a 3 year guaranteed contract and opportunity to be paid while trying to make a club, maybe that is all the ready you need to be. Because the next time the opportunity comes around it might be in the form that it is coming to G. Short term opportunity to prove yourself and make a team, without the team being financially invested in whether or not you ultimately make it.

 

[pfister1]

JB is correct; Mali isn't physically ready for the rigors of the NBA. But he was in a good position to get drafted. Now he has two years to get himself to a level where he can get a 2nd contract.

Another year would have helped, but you have to strike while the iron is hot.

I agree completely with this. But it is JB's job to help Mali figure out whether the iron is hot enough that he should strike, not whether or not he is physically ready for the rigors of the NBA (which is just a sub argument of the greater question). The problem is it is nearly impossible to know whether the iron will be hotter the following year or will have begun to cool.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

I agree completely with this. But it is JB's job to help Mali figure out whether the iron is hot enough that he should strike, not whether or not he is physically ready for the rigors of the NBA (which is just a sub argument of the greater question). The problem is it is nearly impossible to know whether the iron will be hotter the following year or will have begun to cool.

No, it is not JB's job to advise Mal when the iron is hot enough for a short term monetary gain. JB is attempting to provide a longer term prospective. His point is that by jumping this early and not fully ready, the chances are much greater of flaming out.

I believe JB has felt Ennis, Mal, and further back Greene were not ready. You can contrast that with the guys that stayed a second year in MCW, Dion, and Grant. It will be interesting to see who does better.

 

[pfister1]

No, it is not JB's job to advise Mal when the iron is hot enough for a short term monetary gain. JB is attempting to provide a longer term prospective. His point is that by jumping this early and not fully ready, the chances are much greater of flaming out.

I believe JB has felt Ennis, Mal, and further back Greene were not ready. You can contrast that with the guys that stayed a second year in MCW, Dion, and Grant. It will be interesting to see who does better.

I think what many people fail to acknowledge is that the NBA has set up a system where a certain number of previously amateur players "have to" get paid each year. Every year a minimum of 30 previously amateur players get a guaranteed contract as first round picks. Teams can't pass on their picks. Just because you are in a position to be one of the lucky 30 does not mean that you are going to be a successful NBA player...ever. In other words a guy who is identified as one of the lucky 30 this year, may never actually have what it takes to make an NBA roster, but for being in the right time and at the right place to be one of the lucky 30.

So does JB owe his players an obligation to tell them when he thinks the iron is hot, absolutely!! or he is not doing what is in their best interests and will quickly begin to have difficulty recruiting top players. There are lots of guys that may by circumstances be in a position to be a first round pick in a given year, but have no real chance of making a roster in later years. Not because they didn't improve, but because there were 30 better options for the NBA to blow its money on.

The system isn't truly set up for NBA teams to simply take the 13 best players available x 30 (390 players). Instead at least 30 of those slots each year goes to a previously amateur player. Many of them are taken by guys with who weren't not among/or are no longer among the best 390 players in the world, but have a contractual commitment from a club.

So your comparison to MCW, Dion or Grant is not a good one either. Did those guys truly have the opportunity to jump as freshman? What would have happened if they had stayed until they were juniors? If you recall JB advised against Grant going as a sophomore.

Except for guys that are transcendent talents the question is more one of timing than it is ready/not ready. Mal may be more physically ready next year, but that doesn't mean there will be someone interested in giving him the opportunity next year...for any number of reasons.

 

[CaptainJ]

I'm not sure if I've ever gotten super lucky, but I did get Super Bad a few years back and enjoyed the heck out of it. We had McNasty, but it had McLovin!

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

No, it is not JB's job to advise Mal when the iron is hot enough for a short term monetary gain. JB is attempting to provide a longer term prospective. His point is that by jumping this early and not fully ready, the chances are much greater of flaming out.

I believe JB has felt Ennis, Mal, and further back Greene were not ready. You can contrast that with the guys that stayed a second year in MCW, Dion, and Grant. It will be interesting to see who does better.

That will be based upon talent and hard work after SU, and nothing to do with staying another year.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Except for guys that are transcendent talents the question is more one of timing than it is ready/not ready. Mal may be more physically ready next year, but that doesn't mean there will be someone interested in giving him the opportunity next year...for any number of reasons.

I think you are coming onto JB's point, that the ready/not ready factor is not being considered as much as it should. A lot of the players are overvaluing the timing aspect and grabbing the first money. This may not be in their best long term interests.

I think for the most part, players will improve their draft position by waiting. Mal and Lydon needn't worry (now for Ennis I believe striking while the iron was hot was unfortunately the way to go, for him personally).

And it may not be just physical, the mental aspect needs to be considered too. It is a life changing event.

 

[Timberlucky]

No, it is not JB's job to advise Mal when the iron is hot enough for a short term monetary gain. JB is attempting to provide a longer term prospective. His point is that by jumping this early and not fully ready, the chances are much greater of flaming out.

I believe JB has felt Ennis, Mal, and further back Greene were not ready. You can contrast that with the guys that stayed a second year in MCW, Dion, and Grant. It will be interesting to see who does better.

But there's also a chance that if Mal comes back, he doesn't get drafted as high. More and more, we've seen NBA personnel pass on guys with more tape because it's easier to tear them apart, and take gambles on unknown guys with less tape and 'potential upside' (see Thon Maker, record number of International players drafted). I love Mali, but one of his biggest issues is his inefficiency, and it's rare to see a big leap in percentage totals for a player who would be taking MORE shots. That, plus the fact that he would be the age of most college juniors, lead me to believe that the 'long term' prospective might not be as rosy as JB would like to paint it (in this particular instance, there are definitely many circumstances in which it is)/

 

[IthacaMatt]

la la Bomba

I'd love to get him, but I put him in the Porter category, meaning I haven't heard anything from him since we offered.

 

[IthacaMatt]

But isn't that the wrong side of the argument?
There are no guarantees and given how few guys have ultimate success in the NBA, I'm beginning to think that the "he isn't ready" argument is absolute crap. If you are likely to get drafted and receive a 3 year guaranteed contract and opportunity to be paid while trying to make a club, maybe that is all the ready you need to be. Because the next time the opportunity comes around it might be in the form that it is coming to G. Short term opportunity to prove yourself and make a team, without the team being financially invested in whether or not you ultimately make it.

There is a huge difference money wise between going top 14 and going in the later 16 picks of the first round. Huge difference. You don't want to sneak into the end of the first round; you want to get picked in the lottery. If you have the talent but you haven't yet become all conference, we give you tons of publicity. Just look at Wes Johnson. One year and he goes number 6 in the lottery. Jonny Flynn - 2 years, 4th in the lottery. Dion, two years, goes fourth in the lottery.

Then look at Jerami Grant - not yet a star. goes late in the first round, probably leaves $1,5M per year on the table for that first contract, compared to if he came back. Chris McCullough goes late first round, leaves a couple million on the table by not coming back and becoming a star. If you don't think the publicity matters, why do you think Mali went from afterthought to late first round? Because he played well and we made the Final Four. No run to the Final Four, no chance he gets picked in the first round. They weren't even looking at him yet.

 

[IthacaMatt]

But there's also a chance that if Mal comes back, he doesn't get drafted as high. More and more, we've seen NBA personnel pass on guys with more tape because it's easier to tear them apart, and take gambles on unknown guys with less tape and 'potential upside' (see Thon Maker, record number of International players drafted). I love Mali, but one of his biggest issues is his inefficiency, and it's rare to see a big leap in percentage totals for a player who would be taking MORE shots. That, plus the fact that he would be the age of most college juniors, lead me to believe that the 'long term' prospective might not be as rosy as JB would like to paint it (in this particular instance, there are definitely many circumstances in which it is)/

Honestly, how many players get worse? I can't remember anybody we've had who was a draft prospect who played themselves out of the draft. Give me an example. John Wallace? Mali only shot 35% from three and 37% overall, meaning he didn't finish at the rim very well on the drive. He also only shot 72% from the foul line, which is not very good for a guard. I think his overall shooting would have improved next year, he would have become more consistent, and he probably would have increased his scoring to 16 or 17 PPG and made All Conference in the ACC. I think he had the talent to go higher than 22nd. I think he could have improved to the 10-15 range. Just my opinion, of course, but I see little risk in kids being rated lower because they came back for a second year. Third or fourth year, yes, those guys get discounted in the draft, but some of them don't, if their teams have great years and they become All American types of players,.

 

[orangefog]

Honestly, how many players get worse? I can't remember anybody we've had who was a draft prospect who played themselves out of the draft. Give me an example. John Wallace? Mali only shot 35% from three and 37% overall, meaning he didn't finish at the rim very well on the drive. He also only shot 72% from the foul line, which is not very good for a guard. I think his overall shooting would have improved next year, he would have become more consistent, and he probably would have increased his scoring to 16 or 17 PPG and made All Conference in the ACC. I think he had the talent to go higher than 22nd. I think he could have improved to the 10-15 range. Just my opinion, of course, but I see little risk in kids being rated lower because they came back for a second year. Third or fourth year, yes, those guys get discounted in the draft, but some of them don't, if their teams have great years and they become All American types of players,.

Paul Harris is the only one that comes to mind.

 

[Dave85]

Nice recruiting article:

Recruiting season is in full swing for Syracuse football, basketball teams

As the article says the pressure is on and the fans are getting anxious!

 

[IthacaMatt]

Paul Harris is the only one that comes to mind.

Yeah, sophomore year was the peak for Paul Harris. He took a step back his junior year. It's too bad that Dontae Greene team didn't play any defense, because we were a lot of fun to watch that year.

 

[supp]

And get Quade Green at the point, Hamidou Diallo at SG, Jordan Tucker at SF and Nick Richards at C - a hopeful but realistic list - do you realize we would still only have 10 guys on the roster for 2017? I think we would still be looking at a grad transfer or two again next year.

With no defections at all, in 2017 we would have:

Juniors: Tyler Lydon, Pascal Chukwu, Frank Howard

Sophomores: Tyus Battle, Matt Moyer, Taurean Thompson

Freshmen??

We obviously need a big class of 4 or 5 to make up for early defections next year. It's a crucial year, obviously. But we do seem to put together those big 5 man classes every few years.

Even if we load up next year, to keep a program healthy, you need 3 guys per class moving forward who are contributors, not projects.

If we pull all four of our top targets (at least, as I've been reading the tea leaves), we would look like this:

C: Chuwu, Richards
F: Lydon?, Moyer, Thompson, Tucker
G: Battle?, Green, Diallo, Howard

Looking pretty good.

I think these fifth-year transfers are the new reality going forward. As others have pointed out, it's of greatest benefit to the elite programs so we should continue to take advantage of it. There's no need to bring in a class of 6-7 kids in 2017 if the talent doesn't warrant it. You can worry less about losing kids to the league when you can reel in a couple of mature upperclassmen to stabilize the program in their absence.

 

[Nicknack]

There are no guarantees and given how few guys have ultimate success in the NBA, I'm beginning to think that the "he isn't ready" argument is absolute crap. If you are likely to get drafted and receive a 3 year guaranteed contract and opportunity to be paid while trying to make a club, maybe that is all the ready you need to be. Because the next time the opportunity comes around it might be in the form that it is coming to G.

You make some good points but with G, his situation was much different. G played his way into the NBA. He wasn't in a position, like Mali, where he probably could have left early. Therefore, he came back year after year and improved enough to be drafted. Of course, his age worked against him, but there wasn't much of another option for him which is why I don't look at his situation as though he's getting a raw deal.