A Clockwork Orange
2022 Cali Winner (Overall Record)
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2011
- Messages
- 1,851
- Like
- 5,540
I listened to Durham this morning, and they broke down the most difficult ACC schedules this year. They were looking only at who teams were playing in the ACC and basing their analysis on the teams' overall records from last season. It's a highly imperfect way to look at SOS, but I figured I'd dive into the numbers because I'm a college prof. and have nothing to do right now.
First off, without a doubt, SU has the most difficult early-season schedule of any team in the conference. It's similar to other years when we have a promising beginning but get so beaten up during a stretch of challenging games that we lose to teams we are at least equal to later in the season. It looks like this is probably going to happen again this year.
Based on last year's records, SU's schedule isn't the most difficult in the conference. Duke and Wake both have more difficult overall ACC schedules. They play teams with an aggregate W-L record of 36-27 (.571) last year.
Here are their schedules:
Wake Forest (3-5)
Wake Forest gets screwed more than any ACC team in the first year of non-division games. They had a pretty poor 3-5 record last year and were given the most demanding overall schedule in the league. They are on the road against the #1 and #3 team in the league last year (Duke, tied for 3rd at 5-3, and Clemson). They also play the other two teams with 5-3 records in the league last year. They only play one team with a losing record in the league last year.
Duke was also given a most demanding schedule. Here's how their in-conference schedule breaks down.
Duke (5-3)
Duke has the most challenging schedule in the league when all is said and done. I gave that honor to Wake Forest based on their final record last year versus Duke's 5-3 3rd-place finish.
Duke has a rough first four games. Clemson, NC State, and then @FSU and @Louisville. Based on last year's records, this is probably the league's most difficult four-game opening stretch. Then they have to go on the road to UNC after a brief home respite against the Demon Deacons. They will be hard-pressed to duplicate last year's 5-3 record.
The next most difficult schedule in the league goes to all of our favorite team - the Syracuse Orange. With an ACC record of 4-4 last year, we open with a murderer's row in-conference. I think SU has the most difficult four-game opening stretch for the sole reason that we play VT at Lane on a Thursday night. I don't care how down they are; that's a TOUGH place to play on Thursday nights.
Syracuse (4-4)
SU plays a schedule with an aggregate record of 34-29 (.539) last year in conference. Look at that schedule. The ACC schedule makers did the 'Cuse no favors with those first four games. We play the top three conference teams from last year in our first two conference games, two on the road. They have an aggregate 19-5 record in the conference last year. We'll be heavy underdogs in all three of those games. There's a good chance we'll also be an underdog against VT.
Three of the following four games would be considered traditional toss-ups. We have BC and WF at home, so that's a help. Pitt is our nemesis, and I never trust this team against them, home or away. We get hurt a bit playing a GT team at their place. I think this team has the capability to win all four of those games but could easily drop three of them, especially if we're beat up after the absolute gauntlet at the front end of the schedule.
Hey, thanks, ACC, for making our path to a winning record just about as difficult as it possibly could be!
I won't review the rest of the league in this detail, but Louisville lucks out with the most manageable schedule. BC, Virginia Tech, and UVA all have easy schedules as well. That makes sense, given their struggles and total records last year.
Here's a look at the rest of the teams in the league:
So there you have it. If you base SOS simply on aggregate records from last year in the ACC, the above is what it looks like. I actually think this is the most imperfect way in the world to determine strength of schedule, but Packer did it this morning, so I figured I'd throw in my two cents. I do think SU's ACC schedule is incredibly challenging because of when they play and where they play the teams on their schedule.
What do you think? Does SU have a chance to make some noise with its schedule or are we doomed to be bludgeoned and bloodied for the second half where the schedule eases up?
First off, without a doubt, SU has the most difficult early-season schedule of any team in the conference. It's similar to other years when we have a promising beginning but get so beaten up during a stretch of challenging games that we lose to teams we are at least equal to later in the season. It looks like this is probably going to happen again this year.
Based on last year's records, SU's schedule isn't the most difficult in the conference. Duke and Wake both have more difficult overall ACC schedules. They play teams with an aggregate W-L record of 36-27 (.571) last year.
Here are their schedules:
Wake Forest (3-5)
Team | Record |
Georgia Tech | 4-4 |
Clemson | 8-0 |
@VT | 1-6 |
Pitt | 5-3 |
FSU | 5-3 |
@Duke | 5-3 |
NC State | 4-4 |
@SU | 4-4 |
Wake Forest gets screwed more than any ACC team in the first year of non-division games. They had a pretty poor 3-5 record last year and were given the most demanding overall schedule in the league. They are on the road against the #1 and #3 team in the league last year (Duke, tied for 3rd at 5-3, and Clemson). They also play the other two teams with 5-3 records in the league last year. They only play one team with a losing record in the league last year.
Duke was also given a most demanding schedule. Here's how their in-conference schedule breaks down.
Duke (5-3)
Team | Record |
Clemson | 8-0 |
NC State | 4-4 |
@FSU | 5-3 |
@Louisville | 4-4 |
Wake Forest | 3-5 |
@UNC | 6-2 |
@UVA | 1-6 |
Pitt | 5-3 |
Duke has the most challenging schedule in the league when all is said and done. I gave that honor to Wake Forest based on their final record last year versus Duke's 5-3 3rd-place finish.
Duke has a rough first four games. Clemson, NC State, and then @FSU and @Louisville. Based on last year's records, this is probably the league's most difficult four-game opening stretch. Then they have to go on the road to UNC after a brief home respite against the Demon Deacons. They will be hard-pressed to duplicate last year's 5-3 record.
The next most difficult schedule in the league goes to all of our favorite team - the Syracuse Orange. With an ACC record of 4-4 last year, we open with a murderer's row in-conference. I think SU has the most difficult four-game opening stretch for the sole reason that we play VT at Lane on a Thursday night. I don't care how down they are; that's a TOUGH place to play on Thursday nights.
Syracuse (4-4)
Team | Record |
Clemson | 8-0 |
@UNC | 6-2 |
@FSU | 5-3 |
@VT | 1-6 |
BC | 2-6 |
Pitt | 5-3 |
@GT | 4-4 |
Wake Forest | 3-5 |
SU plays a schedule with an aggregate record of 34-29 (.539) last year in conference. Look at that schedule. The ACC schedule makers did the 'Cuse no favors with those first four games. We play the top three conference teams from last year in our first two conference games, two on the road. They have an aggregate 19-5 record in the conference last year. We'll be heavy underdogs in all three of those games. There's a good chance we'll also be an underdog against VT.
Three of the following four games would be considered traditional toss-ups. We have BC and WF at home, so that's a help. Pitt is our nemesis, and I never trust this team against them, home or away. We get hurt a bit playing a GT team at their place. I think this team has the capability to win all four of those games but could easily drop three of them, especially if we're beat up after the absolute gauntlet at the front end of the schedule.
Hey, thanks, ACC, for making our path to a winning record just about as difficult as it possibly could be!
I won't review the rest of the league in this detail, but Louisville lucks out with the most manageable schedule. BC, Virginia Tech, and UVA all have easy schedules as well. That makes sense, given their struggles and total records last year.
Here's a look at the rest of the teams in the league:
Team (Last year's conference record) | Aggregate record of ACC opponents from last year |
Miami (3-5) | 34-29 (.539) |
UNC (6-2) | 34-29 (.539) |
Clemson (8-0) | 34-30 (.531) |
NC State (4-4) | 33-31 (.515) |
FSU (5-3) | 31-32 (.492) |
Georgia Tech (4-4) | 31-32 (.492) |
Pitt (5-3) | 30-33 (.476) |
UVA (1-6) | 29-34 (.460) |
Virginia Tech (1-6) | 29-34 (.460) |
BC (2-6) | 27-35 (.435) |
Louisville (4-4) | 25-37 (.403) |
So there you have it. If you base SOS simply on aggregate records from last year in the ACC, the above is what it looks like. I actually think this is the most imperfect way in the world to determine strength of schedule, but Packer did it this morning, so I figured I'd throw in my two cents. I do think SU's ACC schedule is incredibly challenging because of when they play and where they play the teams on their schedule.
What do you think? Does SU have a chance to make some noise with its schedule or are we doomed to be bludgeoned and bloodied for the second half where the schedule eases up?
