MLB Hot Stove thread

[Alsacs]

The thing is Giolito was really bad in the majors last year and Eaton is a good player signed ot a GREAT contract. So I can see it from the Nats POV.



I think in part because unlike with Jansen, there's no draft pick attached. I do wonder how long a guy can last throwing that hard though. (Don't ask me about Thor)

The Nats could have gotten McCutchen or a better OF than Eaton for Giloto.
Gioloto is young. He is the best pitching prospect right now. The Nats didn't get full value for the prospect. The package they traded was 3 of the 4 guys they were going to give up for Sale.
I hated giving up Moncada and Kopech but alteast they got the best pitcher or one of the top 3 pitchers in the AL for their guys.

Eaton isn't even a bonafide all star.

 

[Symphony Steve]

Eaton is a real good lead-off hitter. He's average in center, where he'll have to play this year, better in a corner. 14 dingers/14 steals is nothing special. He doesn't suck, though.

Problem is, if they don't win it all, and they're hardly the favorite, this whole thing falls apart quickly. They still have no decent option at catcher, with Ramos gone. Werth is 37 and fading. Gonzalez appears to be on the downside. Will Strasburg ever be healthy for an entire season again?

Cut and save, because I'm almost surely gonna be wrong: They end up underperforming and Mike Rizzo is gone by next year's winter meeting.

 

[Knicks411]

The Nats could have gotten McCutchen or a better OF than Eaton for Giloto.
Gioloto is young. He is the best pitching prospect right now. The Nats didn't get full value for the prospect. The package they traded was 3 of the 4 guys they were going to give up for Sale.
I hated giving up Moncada and Kopech but alteast they got the best pitcher or one of the top 3 pitchers in the AL for their guys.

Eaton isn't even a bonafide all star.

I think Eaton is better value than McCutchen. Cutch had a down year last year, is on the wrong side of 30, and is signed for 2 years. Eaton is about 2 years younger, and is signed at a great deal. (Seriously, he's owed $39 million over the next 5 years. That's insane) I also think some of the shine is off on Giolito; he was straight up bad last year in the majors. I'm not writing him off, the package the Nats gave up was steep, but Eaton is a very good player signed to a very affordable contract and I doubt anyone will have Giolito as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball when the lists start to come out. (I could absolutely be wrong about this though)

Sale is awesome, I think the Sox made a home run deal there.

 

[Alsacs]

I think Eaton is better value than McCutchen. Cutch had a down year last year, is on the wrong side of 30, and is signed for 2 years. Eaton is about 2 years younger, and is signed at a great deal. (Seriously, he's owed $39 million over the next 5 years. That's insane) I also think some of the shine is off on Giolito; he was straight up bad last year in the majors. I'm not writing him off, the package the Nats gave up was steep, but Eaton is a very good player signed to a very affordable contract and I doubt anyone will have Giolito as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball when the lists start to come out. (I could absolutely be wrong about this though)

Sale is awesome, I think the Sox made a home run deal there.

MLB.com 2016 Prospect Watch

Top 100 MLB prospects: End of 2016


The kid was 21 last year.
Pitchers don't dominate at that age. Giolito was a steal for a leadoff hitter with elite speed.
The contract for a team like Washington is meaningless. They have money. I bet they could have gotten someone like Charlie Blackman who the Rockies would move with Desmond signed instead of giving up an elite prospect.
You don't trade studs for ponies you do it for horses. Eaton is a ponie.

 

[Knicks411]

MLB.com 2016 Prospect Watch

Top 100 MLB prospects: End of 2016


The kid was 21 last year.
Pitchers don't dominate at that age. Giolito was a steal for a leadoff hitter with elite speed.
The contract for a team like Washington is meaningless. They have money. I bet they could have gotten someone like Charlie Blackman who the Rockies would move with Desmond signed instead of giving up an elite prospect.
You don't trade studs for ponies you do it for horses. Eaton is a ponie.

Willing to say I'm wrong on where Giolito is ranked. I'm not expecting the guy to dominate at age 21, but he walked more guys than he struck out. Yes, it was 21 IP. But I'm just saying here are some warning signs.

The contract issue is huge, I disagree on that. The Nats couldn't sign Cespedes last year because they had to defer too much of the money. Eaton is a very good player signed to a great deal. he deservedly brought a haul back for the White Sox. I would rather have traded for Eaton than Cutch. (I wouldn't have said this last year, but Cutch had a down year).

I wouldn't mind the Mets making a run at Blackmon now.

 

[Briancuse]

The thing is Giolito was really bad in the majors last year and Eaton is a good player signed ot a GREAT contract. So I can see it from the Nats POV.



I think in part because unlike with Jansen, there's no draft pick attached. I do wonder how long a guy can last throwing that hard though. (Don't ask me about Thor)

Matt Harvey didn't have great minor league numbers, you don't just give up on young power arms, the Nats gave up two for a mediocre top of the order guy.

 

[OrangeFoo]

Nat's are all in because they know they are losing Harper to a certain team that wears pinstripes after the 2018 season so they basically have a two year window. I think they also know that there is no telling how long it will take Strasbourg's arm come off his body and cross home plate faster than the baseball bugs bunny style.

As a Mets fan I applaud them because the Mets have a similar short window and are basically resting on their laurels. Cubs are going to own the NL for the foreseeable future so it might not matter.

 

[Briancuse]

Nat's are all in because they know they are losing Harper to a certain team that wears pinstripes after the 2018 season so they basically have a two year window. I think they also know that there is no telling how long it will take Strasbourg's arm come off his body and cross home plate faster than the baseball bugs bunny style.

As a Mets fan I applaud them because the Mets have a similar short window and are basically resting on their laurels. Cubs are going to own the NL for the foreseeable future so it might not matter.

Why is the Mets window short? We have some good young pitchers, we just have to keep them healthy. I think its going to be the Cubs and the Mets for the next 5-10 years.

 

[Bayside44]

Giolito didn't have the juice the Nats were hyping when he pitched. Was also a TJ guy (who isn't). Velocity down and fastball as straight as Lopez's (watched him get shelled by the Dodgers in his opening start). This move sends Turner to short, Eaton to center, Espi to somewhere else, and the Nats have another contract they can control.

 

[Knicks411]

Matt Harvey didn't have great minor league numbers, you don't just give up on young power arms, the Nats gave up two for a mediocre top of the order guy.

Matt Harvey had pretty good minor league numbers, and when he came to the big leagues his stuff took an immediate jump, which is not the case with Giolito.

It's not giving up on the guy to trade him for a guy who is already a good major league player. He's not a mediocre player by any stretch of the imagination.

Why is the Mets window short? We have some good young pitchers, we just have to keep them healthy. I think its going to be the Cubs and the Mets for the next 5-10 years.

Ha, you kinda answered your own question. Pitchers get hurt as a matter of course. The Mets also need to sign them.

It's really a fools errand to try and project more than a few years out anyway. No one has any idea who is going to be good in 2 years, let alone 5 or 10.

 

[Chip]

Yankees will regret that contract in 2 years. Chapman will lose velocity and is wild. I don't get why they would overpay for that guy. It put them over the luxury tax as well.

I don't lose a lot of sleep over 5 year deals, especially for 28 year old left handed relievers. Yeah, by year 4 and year 5, he'll probably be overpaid, but lefty bullpen guys live in this league forever. Not having to give up the draft pick is gravy.

I lose a lot of sleep over 7-8 year deals for those over 30. Like, say, Ellsbury. As soon as someone else is ready, Yanks are going to give him away and have to pay the rest.

And if I were a Sox fan, I'd be very worried about David Price. He had great outings and not great outings. Too many not great outings for the ace he's paid to be. 2nd year is critical for him. But even if he returns to form, which is questionable at best, there's 5 more years at $32M per year. I don't think the Dodgers are going to throw them a lifeline this time.

 

[Alsacs]

I don't lose a lot of sleep over 5 year deals, especially for 28 year old left handed relievers. Yeah, by year 4 and year 5, he'll probably be overpaid, but lefty bullpen guys live in this league forever. Not having to give up the draft pick is gravy.

I lose a lot of sleep over 7-8 year deals for those over 30. Like, say, Ellsbury. As soon as someone else is ready, Yanks are going to give him away and have to pay the rest.

And if I were a Sox fan, I'd be very worried about David Price. He had great outings and not great outings. Too many not great outings for the ace he's paid to be. 2nd year is critical for him. But even if he returns to form, which is questionable at best, there's 5 more years at $32M per year. I don't think the Dodgers are going to throw them a lifeline this time.

Yeah Price is going to be an anchor. I think they could deal him now to the Dodgers but won't because they want to win.
Boston doesn't want to go over the luxury tax when Edwin Encarcinion is right there. If they didn't have Price they could get him even though they are trading Clay Buchholz and his 13 million dollars.

 

[Knicks411]

As a for instance, Matt Harvey had as many strikeouts in his big league debut as Lucas Giolito did in 4 big league starts and 2 relief appearances.

I don't lose a lot of sleep over 5 year deals, especially for 28 year old left handed relievers. Yeah, by year 4 and year 5, he'll probably be overpaid, but lefty bullpen guys live in this league forever. Not having to give up the draft pick is gravy.

It's interesting because generally the ace relief pitchers don't have a super long shelf life. (there are exceptions. The Yankees employed one of them for an annoyingly long time). But I wonder if that will apply to the new era of dominant relievers. (Kenley, Chapman, Betances, etc).

I generally think Price will be ok. He stayed healthy, his control was still fantastic, nearly a K per inning.

 

[Oráiste]

Why is the Mets window short? We have some good young pitchers, we just have to keep them healthy. I think its going to be the Cubs and the Mets for the next 5-10 years.

just keep them healthy, no problem, just like last year :bat:

the Mets' window is now. it may even already have closed without us noticing it.

 

[Briancuse]

just keep them healthy, no problem, just like last year :bat:

the Mets' window is now. it may even already have closed without us noticing it.

The odds are we aren't going to have that many injuries every year, last year was insane, The future is bright, remember Wheeler didn't even pitch an inning last year.

 

[Knicks411]

The odds are we aren't going to have that many injuries every year, last year was insane, The future is bright, remember Wheeler didn't even pitch an inning last year.

He hasn't thrown a pitch in 2 years, he's very much an injury question mark for this year.

 

[Briancuse]

He hasn't thrown a pitch in 2 years, he's very much an injury question mark for this year.

One of these years he is going to be healthy, a rotation of Thor,Degrom,Matz,Harvey,Wheeler, with guys like Lugo and Gzellman, that is pretty damn good, our window is far from closed.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Yankees will regret that contract in 2 years. Chapman will lose velocity and is wild. I don't get why they would overpay for that guy. It put them over the luxury tax as well.

maybe, but the other side is he can opt out after 3.

and if he blows it away, he will be 31 and looking for $$ and the Yankees can make a decision then.

and if not, 17mm per is chump change compared to the arod fleecing.

even CC's deal.

 

[Melancer46]

Sounds like Koji Uehara is headed to the Cubs on a 1 year deal.

 

[Knicks411]

One of these years he is going to be healthy, a rotation of Thor,Degrom,Matz,Harvey,Wheeler, with guys like Lugo and Gzellman, that is pretty damn good, our window is far from closed.

Like I said, the window thing is kinda dumb to me. You can't project too far out. The Mets should be competitive now, that's all that really matters.

 

[bpo57]

I don't lose a lot of sleep over 5 year deals, especially for 28 year old left handed relievers. Yeah, by year 4 and year 5, he'll probably be overpaid, but lefty bullpen guys live in this league forever. Not having to give up the draft pick is gravy.

I lose a lot of sleep over 7-8 year deals for those over 30. Like, say, Ellsbury. As soon as someone else is ready, Yanks are going to give him away and have to pay the rest.

And if I were a Sox fan, I'd be very worried about David Price. He had great outings and not great outings. Too many not great outings for the ace he's paid to be. 2nd year is critical for him. But even if he returns to form, which is questionable at best, there's 5 more years at $32M per year. I don't think the Dodgers are going to throw them a lifeline this time.

The Price deal was a foolish signing. No way the Sox won't regret that and probably regret it already. The only way to redemption is if Price is instrumental in at least one WS title if not two.

ARod would be the classic case of a bad long term deal for somebody over 30.

 

[Knicks411]

The Price deal was a foolish signing. No way the Sox won't regret that and probably regret it already. The only way to redemption is if Price is instrumental in at least one WS title if not two.

ARod would be the classic case of a bad long term deal for somebody over 30.

I feel like pretty much all of them? They never work out long term, (well, almost never). Was having a conversation with some friends recently, what percentage of deals like that would the team rid themselves of within a year. Like, if Boston could wipe that contract off the books right now, would they? Maybe. Price is still a very good pitcher and the Red Sox do have a ton of money, but they'd think about it.

 

[Symphony Steve]

To me, the issue is, whether or not the deal becomes an albatross in the long term, did it pay off in the short term? As in, did you win a World Series with a significant contribution from the player with that contract? If so, it was worth it.

What puzzles me about the Yanks' deal w/Chapman is they look like they're at least a year away from legit contention, especially with that rotation. Chapman showed this year that he is human when he's out of gas. I just don't get their thinking. However, Cashman usually knows what he's doing, and I, uh, well, look how I did in our online league this year...

 

[OrangeFoo]

One of these years he is going to be healthy, a rotation of Thor,Degrom,Matz,Harvey,Wheeler, with guys like Lugo and Gzellman, that is pretty damn good, our window is far from closed.

Do you know the best ways to keep the rotation healthy? Score enough runs so that every game isn't 7/8 innings of high stress pitches because these guys know if they give up more than 2 or 3 runs its game over. The Mets are destroying their own pitching staff by not surrounding them with any semblance of a lineup. The first 30/40 games of next year will be fun when Familia is suspended and Reed is forced to close... They have no one they can trust to even get to Reed and Reed wasn't a great closer in Arizona. No use blaming Alderson though... he's basically come out and said that he only has so much budget.

 

[AirForceOrange]

How the White Sox nabbed 30 wins in a week