Nate Silver!

[KingOtis]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/expanding-eastward-could-dilute-big-ten-brand/

 

[Millhouse]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/expanding-eastward-could-dilute-big-ten-brand/

he's really doubling down on that shoddy method of estimating fan support.

he's a smart guy and you can't hit home runs on everything you try but he really shouldn't be using that any more after it was completely discredited.

 

[Upstate]

he's really doubling down on that shoddy method of estimating fan support.

he's a smart guy and you can't hit home runs on everything you try but he really shouldn't be using that any more after it was completely discredited.

who googles "College Football" anyways?

 

[Millhouse]

who googles "College Football" anyways?

maybe he can count the number of people who click yahoo answers after typing college football in google. those people are probably real diehards

 

[Scooch]

he's really doubling down on that shoddy method of estimating fan support.

he's a smart guy and you can't hit home runs on everything you try but he really shouldn't be using that any more after it was completely discredited.

Ugh. Why, Nate, why?????

There's at least a half-dozen research vendors who do decent enough surveys to quantify favorite teams.

 

[orange79]

Ugh. Why, Nate, why?????

There's at least a half-dozen research vendors who do decent enough surveys to quantify favorite teams.

Maybe you could let him know. I certainly would, but I don't know them.

 

[Fjoinkay]

Nate probably figures no one cares about the accuracy of the figures other than SU and Rutgers alums, so he's sticking with his previous method of analysis rather than adopt a new method and experience the frothing at the mouth from 25,000 Rutgers fans in NYC.

 

[kyleslamb]

Ugh. Why, Nate, why?????

There's at least a half-dozen research vendors who do decent enough surveys to quantify favorite teams.

FWIW, there was a marketing firm quoted in Rovell's ESPN article the other day that said they agreed with Silver's numbers on Rutgers.

 

[Bonz44]

I think your mixing things up?? Neilsen said if u want to try to get NY market Rutgers is option but the majority of the article totally discounted his comment and thought that there was no chance. See below

Ed Desser of Desser Sports Media isn't convinced? " Rutgers might bring a small pocket of central New Jersey, but collge football is not a New York area sport" What were talking about here is there enough interest in NY for Rutgers to get a person to change their cable carrier if the carrier won't carry the Big Ten network? I don't think so" That is the main quote of the article...Rutgers in in New Jersey...Syracuse is the only BCS school in NY...Just look at MSG during Big East Tournament? It's all orange...

 

[Upstate]

FWIW, there was a marketing firm quoted in Rovell's ESPN article the other day that said they agreed with Silver's numbers on Rutgers.

the numbers make sense, but the perception is completely off. Sure there are 600k+ RU fans in the NYC TV Market. The problem is that 560,000 of them live in NJ and not NYC, which is part of that market. NYC alone is not Rutgers' whatsoever.

 

[kyleslamb]

the numbers make sense, but the perception is completely off. Sure there are 600k+ RU fans in the NYC TV Market. The problem is that 560,000 of them live in NJ and not NYC, which is part of that market. NYC alone is not Rutgers' whatsoever.

I agree with that, but the market has to be looked at as a whole in these TV dealings. It doesn't really make sense to differentiate how much is NJ and how much is NYC if the whole point is about the NYC TV market as a whole. Cable operators deal with the whole market as an entity.

 

[rrlbees]

I agree with that, but the market has to be looked at as a whole in these TV dealings. It doesn't really make sense to differentiate how much is NJ and how much is NYC if the whole point is about the NYC TV market as a whole. Cable operators deal with the whole market as an entity.

The pro's look at it that way and that is the important part. But I get tired of articles and fans who don't differentiate between NYC and NYC DMA. Nobody in the city of NYC gives a rats ass about rutgirls.

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[rrlbees]

The pro's look at it that way and that is the important part. But I get tired of articles and fans who don't differentiate between NYC and NYC DMA. Nobody in the city of NYC gives a rats ass about rutgirls.

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Btw, rutgirls does not have 900,000 fans. I would bet SU has more nationally. Guaranteed.

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[Upstate]

I think if you ask people around the country, there are a lot of Syracuse bball-onlies. They probably also claim they're big Oregon football fans, too.

 

[kyleslamb]

The pro's look at it that way and that is the important part. But I get tired of articles and fans who don't differentiate between NYC and NYC DMA. Nobody in the city of NYC gives a rats ass about rutgirls.

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I would like to think that articles are being written from a television perspective, so it might be implied that we're dealing with the DMA rather than the city itself. Then again, I confess that might be giving some writers too much credit.

 

[Scooch]

I would like to think that articles are being written from a television perspective, so it might be implied that we're dealing with the DMA rather than the city itself. Then again, I confess that might be giving some writers too much credit.

I do think that regarding TV most decent writers are referring to the broader market, not just the 5 boroughs.

That being said, the relationship of Rutgers to the NY DMA is a lot different than most other, if not all other, state schools and their respective home markets. I mean NJ doesn't have a DMA, its split in two: NYC and Philly.

I don't doubt that there are concentrations of Rutgers fans throughout Jersey, but obviously the interest wanes the further north you go on the Turnpike. Westchester County and Fairfield County, CT are part of the NYC DMA, and no one gives a rip about Rutgers there.

This isn't like Maryland who can at least "claim" the entirety of the Baltimore DMA. Or BC who can "claim" the Boston DMA. Rutgers can claim a piece of the NYC DMA, and maybe a piece of the Philly DMA, but not the majority of either.