NBA Asst GM: The value of staying in school another year

[IthacaMatt]

Got this quote from the article today in the Post about Jerami's draft prospects. This is the essence of the argument I have made regarding certain players who may not be ready for the demands and physicality of the NBA:'

The Western Conference assistant GM laid out two scenarios for Grant.

"If he comes out and he goes, let's say 25th, he's on a good team,'' the NBA exec said. "He's making good money, but he's just under a million dollars a year. It's good money, but he's on a good team and he's not getting that much playing time. It's hard to develop when you're not playing.

"Or he stays in school and works on his skills,'' he added. "He has a much larger role on offense. He adds some weight. Now he goes 13th and he's making a whole lot more money. He's on a lottery team but hopefully an up-and-coming team. He's more prepared for playing time and you'd guess he's on a team that can give him playing time.''

You don't automatically get better by sitting at the end of an NBA bench. NBA players don't practice as much as you may think. A lot of what they do between games is cardio conditioning for guys who don't get enough game time.

But don't kid yourself, you NEED game time to get better as a player.

 

[SoBeCuse]

He needs to get stronger and make another move besides that spin move going left.

 

[IthacaMatt]

He needs to get stronger and make another move besides that spin move going left.

Totally agree. But my point is that you don't automatically get better by leaving school. Game experience is critical to a player's development.

 

[sufandu]

Got this quote from the article today in the Post about Jerami's draft prospects. This is the essence of the argument I have made regarding certain players who may not be ready for the demands and physicality of the NBA:'

The Western Conference assistant GM laid out two scenarios for Grant.

"If he comes out and he goes, let's say 25th, he's on a good team,'' the NBA exec said. "He's making good money, but he's just under a million dollars a year. It's good money, but he's on a good team and he's not getting that much playing time. It's hard to develop when you're not playing.

"Or he stays in school and works on his skills,'' he added. "He has a much larger role on offense. He adds some weight. Now he goes 13th and he's making a whole lot more money. He's on a lottery team but hopefully an up-and-coming team. He's more prepared for playing time and you'd guess he's on a team that can give him playing time.''

You don't automatically get better by sitting at the end of an NBA bench. NBA players don't practice as much as you may think. A lot of what they do between games is cardio conditioning for guys who don't get enough game time.

But don't kid yourself, you NEED game time to get better as a player.

I quoted the same part in the other Grant thread. It's the same argument I've made a number of times.

 

[MonsterGame]

Has CJ Fair improved his draft stock by staying in school?

There are no guarantees about whether staying will help one or not. None. Period. None. Plenty of examples of guys who've lost money by staying.

Is it possible it could help and/or lengthen Grant's NBA career? It's possible. That's all I got out of what that GM assistant said, it's possible it could help him. It's also possible it could hurt him. Course, they didn't ask the GM that question.

So what in all of this is guaranteed? The money one can get from the NBA right now is, in fact, guaranteed, if one knows they will be a 1st round pick. Hmmm.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Totally agree. But my point is that you don't automatically get better by leaving school. Game experience is critical to a player's development.

No question. I hope he returns obviously.

 

[MonsterGame]

No question. I hope he returns obviously.

BTW, I want Grant to stay as well, but I never blame a kid for taking the money while it's being offered. Sometimes the faucet gets turned off and there's no turning it back on.

 

[TBCuse11]

Has CJ Fair improved his draft stock by staying in school?

There are no guarantees about whether staying will help one or not. None. Period. None. Plenty of examples of guys who've lost money by staying.

Is it possible it could help and/or lengthen Grant's NBA career? It's possible. That's all I got out of what that GM assistant said, it's possible it could help him. It's also possible it could hurt him. Course, they didn't ask the GM that question.

So what in all of this is guaranteed? The money one can get from the NBA right now is, in fact, guaranteed, if one knows they will be a 1st round pick. Hmmm.

No, CJ probably didnt improve this stock. But Grant is a FAR superior athlete with a much bigger upside than CJ. Its not close.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Got this quote from the article today in the Post about Jerami's draft prospects. This is the essence of the argument I have made regarding certain players who may not be ready for the demands and physicality of the NBA:'

The Western Conference assistant GM laid out two scenarios for Grant.

"If he comes out and he goes, let's say 25th, he's on a good team,'' the NBA exec said. "He's making good money, but he's just under a million dollars a year. It's good money, but he's on a good team and he's not getting that much playing time. It's hard to develop when you're not playing.

"Or he stays in school and works on his skills,'' he added. "He has a much larger role on offense. He adds some weight. Now he goes 13th and he's making a whole lot more money. He's on a lottery team but hopefully an up-and-coming team. He's more prepared for playing time and you'd guess he's on a team that can give him playing time.''

You don't automatically get better by sitting at the end of an NBA bench. NBA players don't practice as much as you may think. A lot of what they do between games is cardio conditioning for guys who don't get enough game time.

But don't kid yourself, you NEED game time to get better as a player.

Dear NBA:

A simple solution. For every semester that a kid has successfully completed before the draft in which he is entered, he will be given a bonus of $250,000.00, to be paid out over the life of his contract. For each degree earned, he shall receive an additional $500,000.00 bonus, upon signing his contract. These bonuses will be the responsibility of the league, not the individual teams, and do not count towards the salary cap.
In addition, he will be given credit toward free agency and pension of 20 games for each successfully completed semester.
A successfully completed semester will be at least 12 earned credit hours.

 

[rrlbees]

Got this quote from the article today in the Post about Jerami's draft prospects. This is the essence of the argument I have made regarding certain players who may not be ready for the demands and physicality of the NBA:' The Western Conference assistant GM laid out two scenarios for Grant. "If he comes out and he goes, let's say 25th, he's on a good team,'' the NBA exec said. "He's making good money, but he's just under a million dollars a year. It's good money, but he's on a good team and he's not getting that much playing time. It's hard to develop when you're not playing. "Or he stays in school and works on his skills,'' he added. "He has a much larger role on offense. He adds some weight. Now he goes 13th and he's making a whole lot more money. He's on a lottery team but hopefully an up-and-coming team. He's more prepared for playing time and you'd guess he's on a team that can give him playing time.'' You don't automatically get better by sitting at the end of an NBA bench. NBA players don't practice as much as you may think. A lot of what they do between games is cardio conditioning for guys who don't get enough game time. But don't kid yourself, you NEED game time to get better as a player.

They all say things like a kid should stay in school, then they draft them anyways. There is no right or wrong answer. It's all a crapshoot.

 

[Full_Rebar]

The problem that the NBA Asst GM didn't mention is that individual player development for the NBA and winning games in college don't always go hand in hand. I'm not saying that both can't happen, but it's not always so cut and dry. Grant would really need to improve his outside shooting over the summer for JB to have him at the 3-pt line next year

 

[RF2044]

The problem that the NBA Asst GM didn't mention is that individual player development for the NBA and winning games in college don't always go hand in hand. I'm not saying that both can't happen, but it's not always so cut and dry. Grant would really need to improve his outside shooting over the summer for JB to have him at the 3-pt line next year

I don't know that I agree. Grant was comfortable taking three point shots as a frosh--he made some, too.

We've seen lots of players who had been primarily inside scoring guys earlier in their careers take more three pointers later on--JDub, Hakim, and CJ to name a few. And most of those guys showed veteran shot selection, which helped improve their effectiveness taking those type of shots.

No reason to believe that Grant won't be able to demonstrate similar versatility if he returned.

 

[TBCuse11]

I don't know that I agree. Grant was comfortable taking three point shots as a frosh--he made some, too.

We've seen lots of players who had been primarily inside scoring guys earlier in their careers take more three pointers later on--JDub, Hakim, and CJ to name a few. And most of those guys showed veteran shot selection, which helped improve their effectiveness taking those type of shots.

No reason to believe that Grant won't be able to demonstrate similar versatility if he returned.

I agree. I think Grant can shoot the 3 ball if he puts the time in. Its not like we have Steve Kerr on our roster right now.

 

[sufandu]

Has CJ Fair improved his draft stock by staying in school?

There are no guarantees about whether staying will help one or not. None. Period. None. Plenty of examples of guys who've lost money by staying.

Is it possible it could help and/or lengthen Grant's NBA career? It's possible. That's all I got out of what that GM assistant said, it's possible it could help him. It's also possible it could hurt him. Course, they didn't ask the GM that question.

So what in all of this is guaranteed? The money one can get from the NBA right now is, in fact, guaranteed, if one knows they will be a 1st round pick. Hmmm.

Completely different players. CJ showed his skill level early and it was apparent he didn't have a ceiling much higher than what we saw last year. Grant has shown elite athleticism with far less skill. Skills can be developed, and being a main cog in an offense as a starter is a better way to do it than wasting away on someone's bench.

 

[RF2044]

I agree. I think Grant can shoot the 3 ball if he puts the time in. Its not like we have Steve Kerr on our roster right now.

I mean, he won't be Demetris Nichols [nor should he look to take 150 threes next year]. But I wouldn't have a problem with him taking 50-60, with him being the primary focal point of the offense, and with the development / refinement of his offensive skills that I expect him to display next season.

 

[RF2044]

Has CJ Fair improved his draft stock by staying in school?

There are no guarantees about whether staying will help one or not. None. Period. None. Plenty of examples of guys who've lost money by staying.

Is it possible it could help and/or lengthen Grant's NBA career? It's possible. That's all I got out of what that GM assistant said, it's possible it could help him. It's also possible it could hurt him. Course, they didn't ask the GM that question.

So what in all of this is guaranteed? The money one can get from the NBA right now is, in fact, guaranteed, if one knows they will be a 1st round pick. Hmmm.

He may have--we'll have to wait and see. Last year, he got a second round grade, with tepid interest from most teams. This year? Well, worst case he might go higher in the second round, or he might even sneak into the first round on veteran laden teams that look for plug-and-play depth with good players who are ready to be immediate contributors, such as San Antonio, Indiana, Miami, and Oklahoma City.

 

[sufandu]

The problem that the NBA Asst GM didn't mention is that individual player development for the NBA and winning games in college don't always go hand in hand. I'm not saying that both can't happen, but it's not always so cut and dry. Grant would really need to improve his outside shooting over the summer for JB to have him at the 3-pt line next year

We've seen it happen before. Look at John Wallace from junior year to senior year (4-14 -vs- 37-88). It was night and day. It doesn't necessarily have to be three point shooting either. We saw Warrick develop a very good midrange/turnaround shot to complement his post game too.

 

[Millhouse]

Got this quote from the article today in the Post about Jerami's draft prospects. This is the essence of the argument I have made regarding certain players who may not be ready for the demands and physicality of the NBA:'

The Western Conference assistant GM laid out two scenarios for Grant.

"If he comes out and he goes, let's say 25th, he's on a good team,'' the NBA exec said. "He's making good money, but he's just under a million dollars a year. It's good money, but he's on a good team and he's not getting that much playing time. It's hard to develop when you're not playing.

"Or he stays in school and works on his skills,'' he added. "He has a much larger role on offense. He adds some weight. Now he goes 13th and he's making a whole lot more money. He's on a lottery team but hopefully an up-and-coming team. He's more prepared for playing time and you'd guess he's on a team that can give him playing time.''

You don't automatically get better by sitting at the end of an NBA bench. NBA players don't practice as much as you may think. A lot of what they do between games is cardio conditioning for guys who don't get enough game time.

But don't kid yourself, you NEED game time to get better as a player.

That's all easy for him to say. Hopefully Grant's family's wealth changes things for him. He's going to be rich no matter what if his family planned well.

 

[rrlbees]

The problem that the NBA Asst GM didn't mention is that individual player development for the NBA and winning games in college don't always go hand in hand. I'm not saying that both can't happen, but it's not always so cut and dry. Grant would really need to improve his outside shooting over the summer for JB to have him at the 3-pt line next year

Yea, Grant has a long ways to go with his shooting, handling and strength. The shooting and handle will hurt him as a 3 while the strength hurts as a 4. But the NBA is about potential and he's a freak athlete.

 

[Melancer46]

The problem is I think there's just as good a chance that he falls out of the first round by returning as there is that he catapults himself into the lottery.

If he doesn't make a gigantic leap, he might be looked at the same way McAdoo was, where his stock just continued to plummet with each passing year because his improvements were big enough to satisfy NBA scouts.

 

[RF2044]

The problem is I think there's just as good a chance that he falls out of the first round by returning as there is that he catapults himself into the lottery.

If he doesn't make a gigantic leap, he might be looked at the same way McAdoo was, where his stock just continued to plummet with each passing year because his improvements were big enough to satisfy NBA scouts.

Valid argument. Except that that happened to McAdoo because he was maxed out [basically] in terms of his skill development, versus Grant who has a LONG way to go to improve, both skill-wise and in terms of his physique.

 

[moqui]

You don't automatically get better by sitting at the end of an NBA bench. NBA players don't practice as much as you may think. A lot of what they do between games is cardio conditioning for guys who don't get enough game time.

But don't kid yourself, you NEED game time to get better as a player.

if all you are going to do is sit at the end of the bench then, no, you are not going to get better. but if that is the state of your internal motivation, then you aren't really going to get better in college, either, even if you put up some decent numbers.

anyone with the skill and motivation is better off going pro ASAP. anyone who doesn't is going to wash out either way.

 

[Millhouse]

i say it too much you can explain a lot with kahneman's thinking fast and slow

if you have a question that's too hard to answer, people substitute questions they can answer and instead of calculating probabilites and expected values, they use simpler buckets for impossible, possible, certain. people will pay a premium to go from one bucket to another

how do i maximize my earnings is a tough question. don't know if you'll get hurt, don't know how you'll develop, don't know if you'll hurt your draft stock.

so substitute a different question. will i be a millionaire if i go pro? you can have certainty of that assuming nba teams are honest

so maybe tyler ennis is giving up some expected value (paying a premium essentially) for the certainty of knowing he's going to be a millionaire

 

[sufandu]

i say it too much you can explain a lot with kahneman's thinking fast and slow

if you have a question that's too hard to answer, people substitute questions they can answer and instead of calculating probabilites and expected values, they use simpler buckets for impossible, possible, certain. people will pay a premium to go from one bucket to another

how do i maximize my earnings is a tough question. don't know if you'll get hurt, don't know how you'll develop, don't know if you'll hurt your draft stock.

so substitute a different question. will i be a millionaire if i go pro? you can have certainty of that assuming nba teams are honest

so maybe tyler ennis is giving up some expected value (paying a premium essentially) for the certainty of knowing he's going to be a millionaire

When did this thread become about Ennis? I think the GM and all of us were discussing Grant. Is projection of going 20-25 doesn't guarantee his to be a millionaire because a projection of there can easily turn into the second round with no guaranteed contract.

 

[sufandu]

if all you are going to do is sit at the end of the bench then, no, you are not going to get better. but if that is the state of your internal motivation, then you aren't really going to get better in college, either, even if you put up some decent numbers.

anyone with the skill and motivation is better off going pro ASAP. anyone who doesn't is going to wash out either way.

Don't you think working on a specific skill with the opportunity to then implement immediately in game situations may be better than working on the skill and hoping you'll have that opportunity next year?