ND holds all the cards here...

[orangeinjersey]

By joining the ACC partially, they let it be known this is where they want to be. Similar sized schools, same culture, great academics, some rivalries, strong alumni base, great recruiting grounds, population shifting there, media capital.

If thats the case, and the ACC were to die, where would ND go? I think they think the SEC is beneath them. If they wanted to go to B12, they would have joined them instead of the ACC. B12 was courting them hard. Could they join the PAC? Sure, but seems doubtful.

It seems to me that the ACC is their best bet, so why let it die? Why let it get picked apart. They need to announce they are ALL in by the time their NBC contract is up (2015?). Have ESPN open the checkbook, and put the ACC on equal ground with everyone else.

I am beginning to worry, but the rational side of me keeps saying, the ACC is ESPN's product. There is no way they sit back and watch it get picked apart resulting in lost content, inventory and quality. I just can't see it.

But then again, I am an engineer, not a TV exec, what do I know.

 

[HtownOrange]

So long as ESPN has the same number of compelling matchups throughout the season, they couldn't care less how the conferences align. The real threat to ESPN is new media players who can alter ESPN's inventory. Teams moving to the SEC and Big 12 increase ESPN's inventory. Conferences moving to NBC decrease the inventory.

Either the ACC or the Big 12 will be the big loser if alignment continues. ESPN has rights to both so no net losses as long as one is strengthened.

 

[SmilinBob]

The SEC is also their product and it may be in ESPN's interest to let the ACC go bye bye.

 

[HtownOrange]

Yeah, forgot to add ESPN has the bulk of the SEC deal. Thanks. Shift two from whichever conference is destroyed to the SEC and again, ESPN holds their inventory.

 

[SmilinBob]

Yeah, forgot to add ESPN has the bulk of the SEC deal. Thanks. Shift two from whichever conference is destroyed to the SEC and again, ESPN holds their inventory.

Yep we are both along the same lines here...consolidate and then they'll move the schools to China.

 

[Alsacs]

So long as ESPN has the same number of compelling matchups throughout the season, they couldn't care less how the conferences align. The real threat to ESPN is new media players who can alter ESPN's inventory. Teams moving to the SEC and Big 12 increase ESPN's inventory. Conferences moving to NBC decrease the inventory.

Either the ACC or the Big 12 will be the big loser if alignment continues. ESPN has rights to both so no net losses as long as one is strengthened.

ESPN is going to lose or have to split in the B1G in 2017. FOX/NewsCorp has the B1G Title game now, and when their first tier rights become available hello FOX and ESPN will lose that conference. The SEC is ESPN's darling, but CBS gets the first pick each week. Pac-12 is already divided among FOX and ESPN. Who got USC-UCLA this year? Oregon-USC? ESPN is starting to lose some inventory. The Big XII is divided among FX, FOX, ESPN/ABC. ESPN is losing their monopoly on college football and with the ACC dying they will be losing the only conference they would have all control over just because they wouldn't throw an extra 70 million dollars a year to the ACC. ESPN could have saved the ACC for cheap, but were too stupid or arrogant to do so. Now they will pay the ACC money it won't be worth once their are more defections.

 

[SyracuseMiami]

I think you guys are missing a key point on TV rights. ESPN only has partial rights to the B12 (ESPN - tier 1 and Fox - tier 2), SEC (shared w/CBS), and B1G has the Big10 network. The ACC is the only property they own 100% rights. That and they own them for the next 12 years, the others are vulnerable to being picked off as their deals come up sooner. Maybe I overestimate the value of the ACC rights but I would think ESPN would want to pay the ACC just enough so no one else leaves and have the long term certainty of ACC's inventory. The content of other leagues are at risk for them in my opinion. But what do I know, ha!

 

[MaxwellCuse]

The ultimate Notre Dame power play is to create their own conference. A national conference, perhaps, comprised of private universities committed to academic excellence. A conference comprised of USC, Stanford, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Duke, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest and Notre Dame.

Darned good football conference, decent hoops conference, perhaps a dynamite polo conference. Would really mess with Delaney's, Slive's and Scott's minds also.

 

[Moontan]

The ultimate Notre Dame power play is to create their own conference. A national conference, perhaps, comprised of private universities committed to academic excellence. A conference comprised of USC, Stanford, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Duke, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest and Notre Dame.

Darned good football conference, decent hoops conference, perhaps a dynamite polo conference. Would really mess with Delaney's, Slive's and Scott's minds also.

That leaves 7 (4 in TX, one each in OK, LA and UT) on the outside looking in.

To get to 12, add BYU and (by bending the rules a hair) Pitt.

 

[orangeinjersey]

The ultimate Notre Dame power play is to create their own conference. A national conference, perhaps, comprised of private universities committed to academic excellence. A conference comprised of USC, Stanford, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Duke, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest and Notre Dame.

Darned good football conference, decent hoops conference, perhaps a dynamite polo conference. Would really mess with Delaney's, Slive's and Scott's minds also.

BOOM, now we are thinking.

Maybe NBC is whispering in ND's ear. "Psssst, your deal is up in 2015. Here is a list of schools we want you to join bring along as a new conference backed by NBC. Primetime games on NBC, other Tier 1 games on NBC and NBC Sports. Tier 2 and 3 on "New Conference Network".

Someone with time could list the schools and markets most susceptible to being entertained to leave there current conference. I dont have the time.

 

[GoSU96]

ESPN is going to lose or have to split in the B1G in 2017. FOX/NewsCorp has the B1G Title game now, and when their first tier rights become available hello FOX and ESPN will lose that conference. The SEC is ESPN's darling, but CBS gets the first pick each week. Pac-12 is already divided among FOX and ESPN. Who got USC-UCLA this year? Oregon-USC? ESPN is starting to lose some inventory. The Big XII is divided among FX, FOX, ESPN/ABC. ESPN is losing their monopoly on college football and with the ACC dying they will be losing the only conference they would have all control over just because they wouldn't throw an extra 70 million dollars a year to the ACC. ESPN could have saved the ACC for cheap, but were too stupid or arrogant to do so. Now they will pay the ACC money it won't be worth once their are more defections.

Jesus, they just lost MARYLAND!!!!!

That's it. Stop writing stuff that is declaratory.

Nothing is written in stone, ESPN and the ACC are currently in discussions reevaluating the agreement.

FSU has a expenditure issue as much as a revenue issue, does going to the Big12 solve that, no it makes it worse.

VT is going to the SEC because they think it's a better path to filling the trophy case.

Miami is not going to go anywhere if they need to get in an arms race.

Clemson brings nothing the the SEC but another mouth to feed.

 

[Toga]

VT - or having a trophy case

Jesus, they just lost MARYLAND!!!!!

That's it. Stop writing stuff that is declaratory.

Nothing is written in stone, ESPN and the ACC are currently in discussions reevaluating the agreement.

FSU has a expenditure issue as much as a revenue issue, does going to the Big12 solve that, no it makes it worse.

VT is going to the SEC because they think it's a better path to filling the trophy case.

Miami is not going to go anywhere if they need to get in an arms race.

Clemson brings nothing the the SEC but another mouth to feed.

 

[orangeinjersey]

Jesus, they just lost MARYLAND!!!!!

That's it. Stop writing stuff that is declaratory.

Nothing is written in stone, ESPN and the ACC are currently in discussions reevaluating the agreement.

FSU has a expenditure issue as much as a revenue issue, does going to the Big12 solve that, no it makes it worse.

VT is going to the SEC because they think it's a better path to filling the trophy case.

Miami is not going to go anywhere if they need to get in an arms race.

Clemson brings nothing the the SEC but another mouth to feed.

Its not about filling the trophy case. Look at the B1G's latest acquisitions. Do you really think MD cares about filling the trophy case? You think they care about Basketball rivalries? Lax? It is a PURE CASH GRAB. Don't let anything else fool you. If a charter member says, I'm done, what makes you think a team that hasnt even been in the league for 10 years has any allegiance? You know how many labs/libraries/indoor practice facilities 100M extra in revenue buys you over the course of a decade?

 

[HtownOrange]

I think you guys are missing a key point on TV rights. ESPN only has partial rights to the B12 (ESPN - tier 1 and Fox - tier 2), SEC (shared w/CBS), and B1G has the Big10 network. The ACC is the only property they own 100% rights. That and they own them for the next 12 years, the others are vulnerable to being picked off as their deals come up sooner. Maybe I overestimate the value of the ACC rights but I would think ESPN would want to pay the ACC just enough so no one else leaves and have the long term certainty of ACC's inventory. The content of other leagues are at risk for them in my opinion. But what do I know, ha!

I don't think we are missing the point. ESPN has too much inventory which is why the keep pushing games to ESPN 3. They can trim the fat while keeping the most valuable properties by moving the select teams to new conference, thereby increasing the inventory in those conferences and creating more compelling matchups. who really cares about Duke and Wake in football, or ISU and TTech? Aside from small regional groups of fans, nobody cares.

As for the argument that ESPN will protect its property, they have had plenty of opportunities to do so and continuously underbid the value of the ACC. If Maryland is worth $35MM to the B1G, it is reasonable to assume that is the FMV and that ESPN should pay approximately that amount.

 

[SmilinBob]

It would help the ACC if ESPN gave it a little help talking up FSU and Clemson but they don't because neither has an SEC defense (jk). Either they are screwing their own product or have seen the writing on the wall and have shifted their thinking and going to the SEC and let's not forget their little deal with the Longhorn channel.

 

[Alsacs]

Jesus, they just lost MARYLAND!!!!!

That's it. Stop writing stuff that is declaratory.

Nothing is written in stone, ESPN and the ACC are currently in discussions reevaluating the agreement.

FSU has a expenditure issue as much as a revenue issue, does going to the Big12 solve that, no it makes it worse.

VT is going to the SEC because they think it's a better path to filling the trophy case.

Miami is not going to go anywhere if they need to get in an arms race.

Clemson brings nothing the the SEC but another mouth to feed.

If you can't be objective and see what is going on has nothing to do with loyalty and is all about the $$$$$$$$$$$ you aren't being objective. The ACC is in BIG trouble, go read what Coach K said in the Washington Post he saying what I am. The ACC is not safe the sharks are circling around the conference. Maryland can be replaced, but Florida State/Clemson see the writing on the wall, VPI is getting ahead of the situation, and N. Carolina isn't going to allow itself to be marginalized. SU HAS no power and we have to hope things work out, but there is no guarantee. What I said is correct. ESPN boned the ACC by taking advantage of them in the re-negotiations. 70 million dollars is NOTHING to ESPN. Instead, of making the ACC stable they allowed the money gap 17 million a yr vs. 20 million+ a yr from every other conference to be so great that schools looked elsewhere. If ACC schools were making 22 million a year and other schools were making 24-25 million a year maybe the ACC schools wouldn't look elsewhere. ESPN OWNS everything of the ACC inventory its in their interest to do this. The Big XII, SEC, Pac-12 have hybrid agreements with ESPN and CBS or FOX. What don't you get about that. The B1G is basically giving ESPN the finger with their deals with FOX and the BTN and the B1G championship game already on FOX. Goodbye Michigan-Ohio State on ABC and hello FOX.

 

[SmilinBob]

Yep, Mr. Potter is buying and we'll all scared and selling...50 cents on the dollar.

 

[chakka3421]

If you can't be objective and see what is going on has nothing to do with loyalty and is all about the $$$$$$$$$$$ you aren't being objective. The ACC is in BIG trouble, go read what Coach K said in the Washington Post he saying what I am. The ACC is not safe the sharks are circling around the conference. Maryland can be replaced, but Florida State/Clemson see the writing on the wall, VPI is getting ahead of the situation, and N. Carolina isn't going to allow itself to be marginalized. SU HAS no power and we have to hope things work out, but there is no guarantee. What I said is correct. ESPN boned the ACC by taking advantage of them in the re-negotiations. 70 million dollars is NOTHING to ESPN. Instead, of making the ACC stable they allowed the money gap 17 million a yr vs. 20 million+ a yr from every other conference to be so great that schools looked elsewhere. If ACC schools were making 22 million a year and other schools were making 24-25 million a year maybe the ACC schools wouldn't look elsewhere. ESPN OWNS everything of the ACC inventory its in their interest to do this. The Big XII, SEC, Pac-12 have hybrid agreements with ESPN and CBS or FOX. What don't you get about that. The B1G is basically giving ESPN the finger with their deals with FOX and the BTN and the B1G championship game already on FOX. Goodbye Michigan-Ohio State on ABC and hello FOX.

All speculation...you dont have a clue either...

 

[GoSU96]

If you can't be objective and see what is going on has nothing to do with loyalty and is all about the $$$$$$$$$$$ you aren't being objective. The ACC is in BIG trouble, go read what Coach K said in the Washington Post he saying what I am. The ACC is not safe the sharks are circling around the conference. Maryland can be replaced, but Florida State/Clemson see the writing on the wall, VPI is getting ahead of the situation, and N. Carolina isn't going to allow itself to be marginalized. SU HAS no power and we have to hope things work out, but there is no guarantee. What I said is correct. ESPN boned the ACC by taking advantage of them in the re-negotiations. 70 million dollars is NOTHING to ESPN. Instead, of making the ACC stable they allowed the money gap 17 million a yr vs. 20 million+ a yr from every other conference to be so great that schools looked elsewhere. If ACC schools were making 22 million a year and other schools were making 24-25 million a year maybe the ACC schools wouldn't look elsewhere. ESPN OWNS everything of the ACC inventory its in their interest to do this. The Big XII, SEC, Pac-12 have hybrid agreements with ESPN and CBS or FOX. What don't you get about that. The B1G is basically giving ESPN the finger with their deals with FOX and the BTN and the B1G championship game already on FOX. Goodbye Michigan-Ohio State on ABC and hello FOX.

It was $17M before ND aligned.

You've already identified ESPN's motivation for bumping up the compensation.

What's the writing on the wall that FSU and Clemson see?

If the ACC is smart they trade a dead beat failing program for the L'ville cash cow.

 

[Bayside44]

It was $17M before ND aligned.

You've already identified ESPN's motivation for bumping up the compensation.

What's the writing on the wall that FSU and Clemson see?

If the ACC is smart they trade a dead beat failing program for the L'ville cash cow.

This.

Maryland is being run by people that probably won't be there too long. They built club suites that no one wanted. They are in the least desirable part of the Beltway. And now they threw away their state pride sport (lax) and whatever local recruiting base they had. Good luck to them getting players from Ohio.

It stinks for the DC crowd here, easy trip and easy seats but life goes on.

 

[DoctorBombay]

It was $17M before ND aligned.

You've already identified ESPN's motivation for bumping up the compensation.

What's the writing on the wall that FSU and Clemson see?

If the ACC is smart they trade a dead beat failing program for the L'ville cash cow.

Its not a coincidence that Swofford raised the exit fee to $50 million.
Its not a coincidence that he gave in to ND and partial membership.
Its not a coincidence that Maryland and FSU were the 2 schools to vote against the increase.
Follow the bread crumbs.
This isn't just idle speculation here- there are any number of signs that Maryland was likely the 1st domino.
Delaney poached Maryland as chum in the water for the SEC and others. 3 weeks ago the suggestion that
a charter member of the ACC would willingly bolt so easily, would've been dismissed...as much as the first rumors were dismissed.
Seriously, its 50/50 whether FSU especially, looks for greener pastures- and the MD move greatly increased those odds.

 

[WickedOrange]

Its not a coincidence that Swofford raised the exit fee to $50 million.
Its not a coincidence that he gave in to ND and partial membership.
Its not a coincidence that Maryland and FSU were the 2 schools to vote against the increase.
Follow the bread crumbs.
This isn't just idle speculation here- there are any number of signs that Maryland was likely the 1st domino.
Delaney poached Maryland as chum in the water for the SEC and others. 3 weeks ago the suggestion that
a charter member of the ACC would willingly bolt so easily, would've been dismissed...as much as the first rumors were dismissed.
Seriously, its 50/50 whether FSU especially, looks for greener pastures- and the MD move greatly increased those odds.

I agree, Swofford needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat fast. Inviting Uconn and/or the ville ain't going to cut it.

He needs new (and major) deal with ESPN/NBC/ND. Odds are against it IMO.

 

[baggerbob]

Its time for Dodds, Swarbrick, Big 12 and ACC commissioners Bowlsby, Swofford to get together, and think outside the box. They need to screw everyone including ESPN, Fox, CBS, NBC. Dissolve the ACC and Big 12, form a new conference adding USF, Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, split into 4 divisions of 7, and 2 semi-conferences of 14. Put 4 texas schools 1 in each, same with 4 NC schools, 3 florida schools and Clemson so on. Then put conference up for bid. You end up having the best football and basketball conference in history, and you effectively screw everyone including Big 10, SEC, Pac 12 who you don't have to schedule in anything. You can also tell the bowl playoff people we will play in our own bowls. Of course none of them can outside the box, but that would be a nice scenario.

 

[Jeepers]

If anyone knows the numbers and what's down the pipe, it's ESPN. I can't help but feel like ESPN saw some writing on the wall and has some basketball-centric end game in mind. They were awfully intent on killing the BE. They could have easily squashed this expansion with a fair ACC contract, so something tells me they have some plan.

 

[kyleslamb]

I honestly don't think it is a case of Notre Dame showing the ACC is where they want to be. They joined because the ACC was willing to give them partial membership which is what they craved most after the weakening of the Big East. Neither the Big Ten or Big 12 was willing to give that arrangement -- and they did inquire about it with both places.