Premier League - Deadline Day thoughts

[IthacaMatt]

Chelsea added the biggest piece among major teams with Cuadrado for 27M, after selling Schurrle for 24M. They also loaned/sold Salah for 11M and Ryan Bertrand to Southampton for a fee that could rise to 10M with add-ons. Since they've had Schurrle for a year and Salah for six months, they also get a bit of depreciation on those contracts, so they turned a profit of 6M + 4.2M depreciation on Schurrle and about 5M depreciation on Salah because his loan goes for 18 months. That's deductible to Chelsea, and they are getting paid break even on the original purchase price they paid for him when the 18 month loan is up, so Chelsea really maximized the FFP out of these deals.

One Twitter poster wondered if Chelsea are using some Jedi mind tricks to get people to pay them so much, and structure the deals so favorable to Chelsea, for players who can't break into Chelsea's first team. They are still getting damn near premium prices for almost all of these guys. It's very impressive, and it gives them more room to after Rafael Varane, who I think is their next important purchase. Pogba is just too damn expensive, but he's the one other player Mourinho is lusting after, but not unless they can trade Ramires to Juve to knock 25M or so off the asking price. They are going to get another striker this summer, because Jose isn't that crazy about Remy, even though he's pretty good for the role. After that, it's just getting a few squad players.

That's why the Fernando Torres off-loading was a 2 year loan - so Chelsea got to continue to amortize his purchase price against their FFP "cap" (break even calcuation). Chelsea are the ones really playing money ball with player speculation, not John Henry and Liverpool. The economic structures of FFP (as well as which statistics are most meaningful) has been a learning process for Liverpool.

What I like about Cuadrado's game is that he is explosive running down the flank. He puts the ball waaay out in front of himself and then runs it down with amazing pace. He's like a one man fast break. He so totally fits into Mourinho's preferred style of play. He's like Willian with more of an offensive game. He crosses the ball exceptionally well (4 assists in the World Cup attest to that) and created a fair number of assists in Italy on less than elite teams. He can put defenders under great pressure running directly at them, just like Hazard on the other side. Willian's runs are more across the field, not so vertical. He plays to Mourhino's counter-attacking style exceptionally well.

Other than Chelsea, I think Everton helps themselves a lot with Aaron Lennon. He adds some new life into their attack, which lost Samuel Eto'0 to Italy and didn't bring in a replacement. City added a prolific, proven Premier League striker in Bony, although he seems a bit stubby and bowl-legged for me.

Crystal Palace did great things, when you look at them. Their attack now has Sonogo, Frazier Campbell and Chamakh up front to go with Dwight Gayle (10 goals), you have Wilfred Zaha, Mile Jedinak, James McArthur, Jason Puncheon, Yannick Bolasi in the midfield, and you've got some tough defenders in guys like Scott Dann, Brede Hangeland and Martin Kelly. Julian Speroni is a pretty decent goal keeper. Maybe now they'll have enough offense. They look like a midtable team to me. Well done, boys.

Arsenal signed another big teenager to bolster their defense on the cheap. Some of them are coming around. Liverpool was unable to do anything. Rumor that Man United has a deal for Mats Hummels of Dortmund in the summer. Kevin Strootman had another knee injury, so Van Gaal ought to move on from him.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Chelsea are somehow getting great money for their offcasts but the moneyball wuote doesn't fly. A fair amount of their players are big money signing before the ffp was fully in place. Torres was and schurrle may have been as well. Chelsea had a built roster and 30 players on loan when ffp came into play. Thus Courtois wasn't a purchase, he was a loan player bought back. Same goes for Zouma.

Cuadrado is stellar in attack but how will he do when he's asked to park the bus? Half joking there.

I still don't understand Bony as I don't see him fitting Citys style much less starting over Aguero, or Dzeko.

Liverpool didn't really try to do anything. The positions we needed early in the season hage had existing plauers step up. Striker? Sturridge is like a new signing and Sterling has now cross trained. If Balotelli went we may have bought but without money in we would be short money to spend on a worthwhile player due to ffp. Defensive mid? Lucas is back and doing that well again. Keeper? We need a backup but Mignolet is starting to mature and show authority. Suffice to say we finally have ample squad depth with reasonable talent. To net signifcant upgrade anywhere simply wouldn't work within ffp structure. I do think we've scoped out this summer market which includes quite a few that will be on frees thanks to not extending deals with their current team. That along with loan players coming back should make for a rather tidy summer window if the huge money clubs don't come in for Sterling or Sturridge.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Chelsea are somehow getting great money for their offcasts but the moneyball wuote doesn't fly. A fair amount of their players are big money signing before the ffp was fully in place. Chelsea had a built roster and 30 players on loan when ffp came into play. Thus Courtois wasn't a purchase, he was a loan player bought back. Same goes for Zouma.

Cuadrado is stellar in attack but how will he do when he's asked to park the bus? Half joking there.

I still don't understand Bony as I don't see him fitting Citys style much less starting over Aguero, or Dzeko.

Liverpool didn't really try to do anything. The positions we needed early in the season hage had existing plauers step up. Striker? Sturridge is like a new signing and Sterling has now cross trained. .

FFP didn't start until 2011. At that time, Chelsea went from 17 players out on loan to 23 in the first year of FFP. They also got rid of 16 players off the roster, so as FFP started, Chelsea made a major cut in their salary obligations by cutting many senior players, including Michael Ballack, Deco, Joe Cole and Scott Sinclair. They currently have 30 players out on loan, including several senior players who they are doing this to run down their contracts for FFP reasons, like Fernando Torres, Victor Moses or Marko Marin. And of course some are in the shop window while on loan, or auditioning to make a loan into a permanent transfer like Salah is now doing in Italy.

You have to admit, Chelsea have a bunch of promising talent out there. Some of them are going to break into the first team, just like Courtois and Zouma. Kenneth Omeruo is a great central defender in the making. Tomas Kalas looked promising in his few chances so far in central defense. Among the holding midfielders, you still have Martin Van Ginkel and Oreol Romeu. Thorgen Hazard, Lucas Piazon, Bertrand Traore and Ulysses Davila, who looked so good for Mexico, are all quality attacking midfielders. They have a couple good fullbacks. Wallace, the young Brazilian, might be our right back one day.

They have some promising young strikers in Patrick Bamford, who could be the next Harry Kane, Islam Feruz and the young Columbian international, Joao Rodriguez. One of them might break through and become the number 2 guy to Costa in the next few years, but even if they don't, the likelihood is that some will get good enough while on loan that they effectively audition for a new gig with a bigger club, on the way to Chelsea (or to be cashed in, if you don't fit the long term vision).

There are a lot of quality prospects in the Chelsea pipeline. And even if most never see the senior squad, when you look at the list of young assets they have now as compared to just five years ago, you see far more players who are better established, playing for better clubs, more "ready" for top flight football, and not just scuffling to sit on the bench of a crappy club and not play. (Josh McEchran, Gael Kakuta)

I agree that Liverpool has quite a lot of young talent too, and Brendan is starting to get them on the upswing again. I still think they could have used another "seasoned" (experienced) guy or two to give these guys some "ballast" against tough times. Especially at the base of the midfield, and maybe still in central defense, although they do seem to be coming around lately. They are losing a lot in that respect when Gerrard leaves for LA Galaxy this summer.

I agree that Sturridge will be like a new signing. I just hope you can keep him healthy. But he has taken a long time to come back, and I heard he has been training and rehabbing in the US, and they are all very impressed with his physical conditioning now that he's back in training. (That's one advantage US sports "infrastructure" has over the rest of the world - the whole sports conditioning industry here in the US. It's what makes our athletes the best.)

P.S. - Cuadrado is not just an attacking player. He has played right back and right wing/MF for his country, and for his club in Italy. He works very hard on both ends of the pitch, and runs even more than Willian, if you can believe that one. He is very much a Mourihno player. Schurrle worked very hard for the team, but for a guy who just won the World Cup, he missed about 4 or 5 absolute sitters at the beginning of the season, when Costa was out injured the first time, especially, and Jose remembered this. It was shades of Torres again, a player trying too hard and messing up the easy ones. I think Jose made up his mind on Schurrle a couple months ago.

 

[ImperialOrange]

FFP started in 2011 but the numbers and time frame over which a team could report were different than now when ffp are fully in effect. I think that's why you saw the influx of players at Chelsea. Its good business really since they had money and knew they'd have to be more selective/frugal in the future. In 2011 owners could still dump equity into the club to balance books, they no longer can which is why Chelsea started and remain well on the good side of ffp while City juggle numbers to try and stay within the rules.

Had our prior owners not spent is within days of administration I'd like to think we'd have done the same but since they did fsg has had to build under different circumstances. All things considered I think they're doing well with the players and infratructure. We came close to the ffp threshold last summer so I was under the impression we could not spend money even if we wanted without selling this window. Instead we've worked new contracts for our important pieces and I expect we'll add in the summer when players are generally cheaper.


Most of the epl smack I talk is in good fun. The playing field isn't exactly level for the have haves vs the have nots but its fun to see the smaller clubs give it hell so I respect them much more than the bottom feeders in our domestic sports. Realistically, Liverpool are still top 5 in epl wealthy clubs so I don't have much room to complain. I still don't under why teams give chelsea such sweetheart deals (I read 21.1 for Cuadrardo) similar to how Bayern get. You'd figure teams would squeeze every penny like they do from us which is why we so frequently back away from bigger name/money signings. Its quite impressive and I simply can't wrap my head around how they do it.

 

[IthacaMatt]

In terms of teams agreeing to what are perceived to be "lower" fees for their players (e.g. if we saved several million on the published price for Cuadrado ...), it's probably because there aren't many other bidders out there to begin with. There quite a few teams who were on the "watch list" for FFP - something like 70 of them throughout Europe - so that may have helped "chill" the transfer market, especially when other clubs see the transfer ban on Barca, the salary cap imposed on City's Champions League squad. It seems like actual punishment will be dished out. So I think that has slowed down the massive overspending a bit.

I agree that Liverpool made some major investments when Kenny Dalglish came back and the Fenway ownership was still new. That money was used, moneyball style, to try to piece together a coherent offensive strategy - Charlie Adam, the most effective crosser, and Andy Carroll, a most effective header of the ball, come to mind. I think the problem with that first major investment was that they fell prey to paying for English players too much, who tend to be overpriced compared to players from other regions.

This summer's second major rebuild under Fenway and John Henry was also a bit too much squad players and not a few top quality "difference makers". If you spend 110M pounds, I'd rather get 3 or 4 very good to excellent players, than 7 or 8 young players, hoping that 3 or 4 of them pan out. Too much risk in the latter, especially when you need help in the first team, and are not just filling in the spots on the bench.

 

[ImperialOrange]

In terms of teams agreeing to what are perceived to be "lower" fees for their players (e.g. if we saved several million on the published price for Cuadrado ...), it's probably because there aren't many other bidders out there to begin with. There quite a few teams who were on the "watch list" for FFP - something like 70 of them throughout Europe - so that may have helped "chill" the transfer market, especially when other clubs see the transfer ban on Barca, the salary cap imposed on City's Champions League squad. It seems like actual punishment will be dished out. So I think that has slowed down the massive overspending a bit.

I agree that Liverpool made some major investments when Kenny Dalglish came back and the Fenway ownership was still new. That money was used, moneyball style, to try to piece together a coherent offensive strategy - Charlie Adam, the most effective crosser, and Andy Carroll, a most effective header of the ball, come to mind. I think the problem with that first major investment was that they fell prey to paying for English players too much, who tend to be overpriced compared to players from other regions.

This summer's second major rebuild under Fenway and John Henry was also a bit too much squad players and not a few top quality "difference makers". If you spend 110M pounds, I'd rather get 3 or 4 very good to excellent players, than 7 or 8 young players, hoping that 3 or 4 of them pan out. Too much risk in the latter, especially when you need help in the first team, and are not just filling in the spots on the bench.

Ehhh our roster was paper thin. We finally have squad depth across the park and on the bench but take a look at what our bench was just recently. The versatility of our current players do a great job covering in areas where prior years we'd NEED to purchase a player. Fewer one trick ponies and more out and out players if you will. I feel like we needed to build in the way we have to get to a point where future purchases will be fewer in number, higher in cost, and higher in overall polish.

Look at last years run in. In the imfamous Chelsea slip game we had Allen, and Johnson starting with bench options on Iago Aspas, Aly Cissokho, and Luis Alberto. Fast forward to now and Allen and Johnson are squad players, Cissohko got shipped back from loan, and Aspas and Alberto are both out on loan. This past weekend 4 of our summer signings started in Can, Markovic, Moreno, and Lallana while Johnson and Allen both watched from the bench. Say what you will about Lambert or Borini but both are at least useful especially when considered against what Aspas gave (or didnt give) us last year. What we've got currently is sustainable as well. Look at the age of our starters:

Mignolet 26
Can 21 - Skrtel 30 - Sakho 24
Moreno - 22 Lucas - 28 Hendo - 24 Marko - 20
Lallana - 26 Coutinho - 22
Sterling - 20

Bench:
Ward - 21
Johnson - 30
Allen - 24
Ibe - 19
Lambert - 32
Sturridge - 25
Borini - 23

Johnson can be phased out with Manquillo and Lambert with Origi without new signings. We've also got young Flanno coming back from injury as well as Wisdom, and Llori coming back from loans in the summer.

Not yet ready to compete with more complete teams like Chelsea or City BUT we are improving and no longer looking at glaring holes in our roster. Top 4 is the goal, the title chase last year was well ahead of schedule and I think skewed expectations a bit. Nobody could've predicted the scoring woes your Blues had last year and I admittedly had you pegged for 1st with City 2nd preseason with Pool 3rd last season. I feel like any new signings moving forward will be more ready made players vs the mostly younger guys we went for last summer. We need a couple Ferrari's yet to run with the likes of CFC over the course of a season but we're a lot closer than the current table leads on as well as witnessed by the Cap One cup tie.

I'd like to think we've learned from the failings with Carroll, Adam, and Downing. Admittedly the Carroll signing was under duress givin the late departure of Torres but the other 2 never gave the impression of being Champions league quality. Carroll is a player that I'm not sure anyone knows how to properly use. Everyone wants to put crosses in the air for him but look back at his Newcastle highlights and the man has a cannon of a leg that no one ever attmepts to use. I'd imagine if he ever took conditioning seriously he'd be in better positions to use that more often. Even vs us this past weekend he was winded after 25 mins. Some things never change.

 

[Orangezoo]

Being the Arsenal fan in the group figured I would chime in. The cuadrado signing is a good signing and pains me to see it. I like what he brings to the table and he has that "flair" to his game as well. Given how solid the defense has been ( aside from a couple hiccups) he is another player to put pressure on the d in attack who also plays with great pace. Scary thought with the riches already there.

As for the Gunner's moves I really like how this team is setup. Yes they went out and got a good looking youngster in Bielek but the Gabriel signing is very big. He brings pace and discipline as a center back which is exactly what we needed. Add that to the emergence of Bellerin and things in the back look the best in a very long time. Also you are seeing the results. The combination play with Santi in form and Ozil back alongside mixing in Coquelin has been impressive. It helps drive more sense into the Gabriel signing as he won't be needed to be a distributor given the wealth the gunners have. There is definitely a logjam in the middle with players returning from injury but the attack looks flat out scary and the defense much better and holding their shape. I fully expect Ospina to win the battle in goal soon but we finally also have some competition at the position. The 5-0 blasting of reeling villa was without Alexis as well and vs a team who really has only had their defense to rely on all year.

As for Liverpool.. obviously sturridge returning is a key. Looked like Raheem had a nice game as well. Mignolet seems to be rounding back into form as well. If Chelsea slips up at all the rest of the way this is going to be a fun finish. Southampton has shown signs of possibly falling into a tailspin but seems to bounce back everytime this year so far. Lot of good football in the top 6.

All that said .. and it pains me to say it.. but Spurs look really impressive as well. Eriksen/Kane make a really nice attacking combo. Will be interesting to see what run Yedlin gets if any this year. He has a long way to be ready from the early training reports and his U-21 debut.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Being the Arsenal fan in the group figured I would chime in. The cuadrado signing is a good signing and pains me to see it. I like what he brings to the table and he has that "flair" to his game as well. Given how solid the defense has been ( aside from a couple hiccups) he is another player to put pressure on the d in attack who also plays with great pace. Scary thought with the riches already there.

As for the Gunner's moves I really like how this team is setup. Yes they went out and got a good looking youngster in Bielek but the Gabriel signing is very big. He brings pace and discipline as a center back which is exactly what we needed. Add that to the emergence of Bellerin and things in the back look the best in a very long time. Also you are seeing the results. The combination play with Santi in form and Ozil back alongside mixing in Coquelin has been impressive. It helps drive more sense into the Gabriel signing as he won't be needed to be a distributor given the wealth the gunners have. There is definitely a logjam in the middle with players returning from injury but the attack looks flat out scary and the defense much better and holding their shape. I fully expect Ospina to win the battle in goal soon but we finally also have some competition at the position. The 5-0 blasting of reeling villa was without Alexis as well and vs a team who really has only had their defense to rely on all year.

As for Liverpool.. obviously sturridge returning is a key. Looked like Raheem had a nice game as well. Mignolet seems to be rounding back into form as well. If Chelsea slips up at all the rest of the way this is going to be a fun finish. Southampton has shown signs of possibly falling into a tailspin but seems to bounce back everytime this year so far. Lot of good football in the top 6.

All that said .. and it pains me to say it.. but Spurs look really impressive as well. Eriksen/Kane make a really nice attacking combo. Will be interesting to see what run Yedlin gets if any this year. He has a long way to be ready from the early training reports and his U-21 debut.

Spurs will do what Spurs do. They're still suspect at the back and Lloris always looks comically overmatched vs attacking sides. I expect to be ahead of them by the end of February as they play Arsenal, Liverpool, and West Ham in their next 3 prem matches.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Ehhh our roster was paper thin. We finally have squad depth across the park and on the bench but take a look at what our bench was just recently. The versatility of our current players do a great job covering in areas where prior years we'd NEED to purchase a player. Fewer one trick ponies and more out and out players if you will. I feel like we needed to build in the way we have to get to a point where future purchases will be fewer in number, higher in cost, and higher in overall polish.

Look at last years run in. In the imfamous Chelsea slip game we had Allen, and Johnson starting with bench options on Iago Aspas, Aly Cissokho, and Luis Alberto. Fast forward to now and Allen and Johnson are squad players, Cissohko got shipped back from loan, and Aspas and Alberto are both out on loan. This past weekend 4 of our summer signings started in Can, Markovic, Moreno, and Lallana while Johnson and Allen both watched from the bench. Say what you will about Lambert or Borini but both are at least useful especially when considered against what Aspas gave (or didnt give) us last year. What we've got currently is sustainable as well. Look at the age of our starters:

Mignolet 26
Can 21 - Skrtel 30 - Sakho 24
Moreno - 22 Lucas - 28 Hendo - 24 Marko - 20
Lallana - 26 Coutinho - 22
Sterling - 20

Bench:
Ward - 21
Johnson - 30
Allen - 24
Ibe - 19
Lambert - 32
Sturridge - 25
Borini - 23

Johnson can be phased out with Manquillo and Lambert with Origi without new signings. We've also got young Flanno coming back from injury as well as Wisdom, and Llori coming back from loans in the summer.

Not yet ready to compete with more complete teams like Chelsea or City BUT we are improving and no longer looking at glaring holes in our roster. Top 4 is the goal, the title chase last year was well ahead of schedule and I think skewed expectations a bit. Nobody could've predicted the scoring woes your Blues had last year and I admittedly had you pegged for 1st with City 2nd preseason with Pool 3rd last season. I feel like any new signings moving forward will be more ready made players vs the mostly younger guys we went for last summer. We need a couple Ferrari's yet to run with the likes of CFC over the course of a season but we're a lot closer than the current table leads on as well as witnessed by the Cap One cup tie.

I'd like to think we've learned from the failings with Carroll, Adam, and Downing. Admittedly the Carroll signing was under duress givin the late departure of Torres but the other 2 never gave the impression of being Champions league quality. Carroll is a player that I'm not sure anyone knows how to properly use. Everyone wants to put crosses in the air for him but look back at his Newcastle highlights and the man has a cannon of a leg that no one ever attmepts to use. I'd imagine if he ever took conditioning seriously he'd be in better positions to use that more often. Even vs us this past weekend he was winded after 25 mins. Some things never change.

FYI, great article on Chelsea's use of the loan system to stockpile young talent.

http://www.givemesport.com/543484-c...oung-players-it-must-be-looked-at?autoplay=on

 

[Orangezoo]

Spurs will do what Spurs do. They're still suspect at the back and Lloris always looks comically overmatched vs attacking sides. I expect to be ahead of them by the end of February as they play Arsenal, Liverpool, and West Ham in their next 3 prem matches.

True. They will likely return to their normal volatile performance pattern soon. And then you have good ole man u in the mix as well. Imagine where they would be sitting right now if not for De Gea's heroics this year.

 

[ImperialOrange]

FYI, great article on Chelsea's use of the loan system to stockpile young talent.

http://www.givemesport.com/543484-c...oung-players-it-must-be-looked-at?autoplay=on

It is, indeed, good business if you can get it. At some point one would think clubs would stop overpaying for your outcasts but it doesn't look it. At the same time they keep allowing sweetheart deals when selling players to you which is just bizarre.

Here's a look at Chelsea's transfers:

http://www.transfermarkt.com/fc-chelsea/alletransfers/verein/631

This season you somehow flipped Luiz, Lukaku, and Schurrle into Costa, Cuadrado, and Fabregas. Last year you turned Mata and some loose change into Willian and Matic although Matic is a lot more expensive than that number if you account for what you sold him for initially. But you can see from 09/10 - 12/13 their transfer outlay was well above what they were bringing in from sales.

 

[ImperialOrange]

True. They will likely return to their normal volatile performance pattern soon. And then you have good ole man u in the mix as well. Imagine where they would be sitting right now if not for De Gea's heroics this year.

They'd be somewhere around Swansea. They will feel good about themselves until mid March - April when they see Spurs, Liverpool, Villa, City, Chelsea, and Everton in a 5 week span. If they somehow aren't still top 4 by the beginning of March, they won't be at the end of the season. We'll have to see when the yearly RVP injury transpires this year.

 

[Orangezoo]

They'd be somewhere around Swansea. They will feel good about themselves until mid March - April when they see Spurs, Liverpool, Villa, City, Chelsea, and Everton in a 5 week span. If they somehow aren't still top 4 by the beginning of March, they won't be at the end of the season. We'll have to see when the yearly RVP injury transpires this year.

Sounds about right. And lol on RVP. I wonder how much longer he sticks around the EPL..

 

[ImperialOrange]

Sounds about right. And lol on RVP. I wonder how much longer he sticks around the EPL..

He's still lethal when healthy. I'm sure, as a Gooner, you're heart broken every year when he breaks down.

 

[Orangezoo]

He's still lethal when healthy. I'm sure, as a Gooner, you're heart broken every year when he breaks down.

of course.. too painful to bear