Program changing win

[Jeremy L.]

One small quibble. Not program changing… I would say it is coaching tenure changing possibly… depends on how we capitalize.

I liken it to Dino beating Va Tech his first year (or if you want to call this Clemson, that’s fine too…)

Shows what the team is capable of - playing with anyone in the country. Now need more depth, higher end top talent, and consistency.

Great comp for Va Tech. For Clemson, nobody mentions the losing streak that followed lol

 

[tombacuse]

What a great job by Autry tonight. Masterfully switching defenses, outcoaching Hubert and showing full control of the team. The team is obviously listening to Autry and they answered his challenge. This is the type of win that changes perception and changes program direction. Recruits notice and the team sees what they can do with optimal effort and listening. Very happy for Red and the team. Great, great win!

cuse

couldn't agree more. EVERYONE needed that win...players, coaches and fans. The zone can be a menace in college basketball in certain situations. He went to it at a perfect time. Great win!

 

[General20]

Count me as someone who doesn't see this as a program changing win. For a good while now Syracuse has been really quite a good offensive team (who saw that coming early in the year?) who struggles defensively, and rebounding the ball.

Those same patterns held true in this game. The D still wasn't good. The rebounding wasn't good. What changed is the offense went from good to GREAT. Unfortunately shooting 60+% from the field and almost 50% from three is not sustainable. If we didn't have that dry spell against Clemson in the first half we would have put up similar numbers against them and almost definitely would have won. But that's the thing, dry spells happen. Sometimes the ball is spinning up on the rim and looks like it's going to drop, but doesn't (happened about 10 times in a row against Clemson). You need good D to get you through those dry spells.

Why isn't the D any good? Well, I would argue the most important part of a defense is the ability to stop the opposition from converting easy opportunities down low, and we lost our 3 best shot blockers in McLeod, Williams, and Hima (who we really lost half way through last year and is now a shell of himself). You might not think any one of those 3 guys is a difference maker alone, but I'd argue that 99% of defenses would struggle if you took away their 3 top shot blockers.

We aren't going to be a good defensive team this year, but we can and should be better than we currently are. Seems pretty obvious the coaches are emphasizing it, and the players are showing emotion when they make a good defensive play. Watching how the D performs is the thing I'm most excited about for the rest of the season.

A great win like this is a nice time for fans to take stock of what is going right with the team, and there are plenty of those things.

1) Red's ability to change strategy mid-season. Red wanted this to be a running team. He has athletes. He practiced and planned for this to be a running team. They just aren't good at it. First game against UNC we tried to run with them and lost by 30. This time Red made significant changes. He was extremely vocal telling the kids when to push and when to slow down, and it made a massive difference. Changing the preseason plan when things aren't working is something the coaching profession in general isn't very good at. We should not take this change for granted.

2) Red's ability to coach up his guys. Starling looked both physically and mentally broken at the start of the year. Shooting slumps happen, but he was afraid to shoot even when the other team stopped guarding him, and that is a tailspin which is much harder to pull out of. Now Starling is averaging something like 20 a game over the last 10. Copeland, Brown, and Bell have also shown major improvements over last season. I'll even give a bold prediction that we start seeing Taylor score more in the upcoming games.

3) The offense. I've seen a lot of people posting on this board that Red isn't running any offense. I'm convinced people just say that when the ball doesn't go in or when we lose. Our offense is predicated on Mintz, Starling, and Copeland getting into the lane. It should be. We don't have any post threats and we don't have any guys who can hit shots coming off screens (Boeheim liked to recruit that kind of player, but belive me, even though we have seen McNamara, Rautins, Cooney, Boeheim, and Girard all do it. Its actually a rare skill to have). There is nothing wrong with an offense that starts with guard penetration, and Red has managed to build a pretty good one out of practically nothing (which is the offense we started the year with).

 

[djcon57]

Count me as someone who doesn't see this as a program changing win. For a good while now Syracuse has been really quite a good offensive team (who saw that coming early in the year?) who struggles defensively, and rebounding the ball.

Those same patterns held true in this game. The D still wasn't good. The rebounding wasn't good. What changed is the offense went from good to GREAT. Unfortunately shooting 60+% from the field and almost 50% from three is not sustainable. If we didn't have that dry spell against Clemson in the first half we would have put up similar numbers against them and almost definitely would have won. But that's the thing, dry spells happen. Sometimes the ball is spinning up on the rim and looks like it's going to drop, but doesn't (happened about 10 times in a row against Clemson). You need good D to get you through those dry spells.

Why isn't the D any good? Well, I would argue the most important part of a defense is the ability to stop the opposition from converting easy opportunities down low, and we lost our 3 best shot blockers in McLeod, Williams, and Hima (who we really lost half way through last year and is now a shell of himself). You might not think any one of those 3 guys is a difference maker alone, but I'd argue that 99% of defenses would struggle if you took away their 3 top shot blockers.

We aren't going to be a good defensive team this year, but we can and should be better than we currently are. Seems pretty obvious the coaches are emphasizing it, and the players are showing emotion when they make a good defensive play. Watching how the D performs is the thing I'm most excited about for the rest of the season.

A great win like this is a nice time for fans to take stock of what is going right with the team, and there are plenty of those things.

1) Red's ability to change strategy mid-season. Red wanted this to be a running team. He has athletes. He practiced and planned for this to be a running team. They just aren't good at it. First game against UNC we tried to run with them and lost by 30. This time Red made significant changes. He was extremely vocal telling the kids when to push and when to slow down, and it made a massive difference. Changing the preseason plan when things aren't working is something the coaching profession in general isn't very good at. We should not take this change for granted.

2) Red's ability to coach up his guys. Starling looked both physically and mentally broken at the start of the year. Shooting slumps happen, but he was afraid to shoot even when the other team stopped guarding him, and that is a tailspin which is much harder to pull out of. Now Starling is averaging something like 20 a game over the last 10. Copeland, Brown, and Bell have also shown major improvements over last season. I'll even give a bold prediction that we start seeing Taylor score more in the upcoming games.

3) The offense. I've seen a lot of people posting on this board that Red isn't running any offense. I'm convinced people just say that when the ball doesn't go in or when we lose. Our offense is predicated on Mintz, Starling, and Copeland getting into the lane. It should be. We don't have any post threats and we don't have any guys who can hit shots coming off screens (Boeheim liked to recruit that kind of player, but belive me, even though we have seen McNamara, Rautins, Cooney, Boeheim, and Girard all do it. Its actually a rare skill to have). There is nothing wrong with an offense that starts with guard penetration, and Red has managed to build a pretty good one out of practically nothing (which is the offense we started the year with).

Pace of Play

We know this team can't shoot and thus is bad in the half court. But they do have athletes and they do like to get out and run. Right? Well, maybe not. No doubt this team likes to score in transition off turnovers and is good at it. But do they like fast paced up and down games? You'd...

syracusefan.com

You should take a victory lap on this take. I didn't like the take at the time, but ultimately that was ME being stubborn about the current makeup of the team and the reality of the situation and probably PTSD from the last 5 seasons or so. The pace is more about the D than the O, ultimately, we just can't stop anyone regardless, so better to make it close.

Edit: Should clarify. We can't stop "anyone" in regards to playing the Dukes and UNCs. We should be able to play that style against the lower caliber of team. It's very impressive Red flipped the style of play.

 

[Gotothehole]

I lost a lot of money on that game last night, and I'm extremely happy I did.

You may now all shame (or thank) me

Sorry for your loss took Cuse and the points last night

 

[SUFan44]

Pace of Play

We know this team can't shoot and thus is bad in the half court. But they do have athletes and they do like to get out and run. Right? Well, maybe not. No doubt this team likes to score in transition off turnovers and is good at it. But do they like fast paced up and down games? You'd...

syracusefan.com

You should take a victory lap on this take. I didn't like the take at the time, but ultimately that was ME being stubborn about the current makeup of the team and the reality of the situation and probably PTSD from the last 5 seasons or so. The pace is more about the D than the O, ultimately, we just can't stop anyone regardless, so better to make it close.

Edit: Should clarify. We can't stop "anyone" in regards to playing the Dukes and UNCs. We should be able to play that style against the lower caliber of team. It's very impressive Red flipped the style of play.

Replying to you here, but meant for General20 as well.

KenPom's metrics for offense & defense indicate we are actually a pretty efficient and effective defense (by and large). We are 60th ranked in the country in the category.

In contrast, we are 114th in the country in offensive efficiency. These metrics are adjusted, so they do take into consideration tempo.

Last night was an aberration in terms of the metrics. Another interesting tidbit that should come as no surprise - Maliq Brown is #1 in the nation in true shooting % and effective field goal %. He's having a great year.

 

[OrangeFoo]

Replying to you here, but meant for General20 as well.

KenPom's metrics for offense & defense indicate we are actually a pretty efficient and effective defense (by and large). We are 60th ranked in the country in the category.

In contrast, we are 114th in the country in offensive efficiency. These metrics are adjusted, so they do take into consideration tempo.

Last night was an aberration in terms of the metrics. Another interesting tidbit that should come as no surprise - Maliq Brown is #1 in the nation in true shooting % and effective field goal %. He's having a great year.

I think this is a case where the the outliers are messing up the stats. Against teams who can break down the perimeter D or when our perimeters defenders stop trying because a butterfly flew past them our D is no bueno. Luckily we hold up against average teams and can dominate below average teams. Our offense has always been middling because it's really a product of our D. If we can play good D and turn the other team over we score a lot... if we don't play good D then our offense goes into the tank. Last night, we found something with the guards dominating on offense... I don't know how well it translates against other teams or what they were doing differently.

 

[djcon57]

I think this is a case where the the outliers are messing up the stats. Against teams who can break down the perimeter D or when our perimeters defenders stop trying because a butterfly flew past them our D is no bueno. Luckily we hold up against average teams and can dominate below average teams. Our offense has always been middling because it's really a product of our D. If we can play good D and turn the other team over we score a lot... if we don't play good D then our offense goes into the tank. Last night, we found something with the guards dominating on offense... I don't know how well it translates against other teams or what they were doing differently.

Yeah I think it's simply a matter of the talent level of our opponent AND losing McLeod, who while obviously has his downside on D, did give us a possibility of blocking a shot. That's gone.

 

[General20]

Replying to you here, but meant for General20 as well.

KenPom's metrics for offense & defense indicate we are actually a pretty efficient and effective defense (by and large). We are 60th ranked in the country in the category.

In contrast, we are 114th in the country in offensive efficiency. These metrics are adjusted, so they do take into consideration tempo.

Last night was an aberration in terms of the metrics. Another interesting tidbit that should come as no surprise - Maliq Brown is #1 in the nation in true shooting % and effective field goal %. He's having a great year.

Sure but that is taking the whole season into account. Context matters. Nobody knew how to play us early in the season and they were unintentionally playing right into our strengths on D. That changed and our D fell apart. The last month or so it's been horrible, and that is what I'm speaking to.

 

[SUFan44]

Sure but that is taking the whole season into account. Context matters. Nobody knew how to play us early in the season and they were unintentionally playing right into our strengths on D. That changed and our D fell apart. The last month or so it's been horrible, and that is what I'm speaking to.

I understand. Just presenting that our offense isn't necessarily better than our defense in totality. And I would argue our offense has been much worse than our defense for the majority of the season. I do think our defense was decent in stretches last night and especially down the stretch made UNC work.