Here is my favorite comparison yet... Memphis.. Today Joe L has them in the Last four in of his updated Bracket. and Palm at CBS had them an 8 seed before their loss to Rice this week. This just makes zero sense to me.. The AAC is not a great conf. Memphis has played 2 quad one games and one win.. They have a quad 3 loss and a quad 4 loss and the NET is 77... What am i missing. Yes I know we have been blown out by some good teams but cmon Memphis in the tourney is a joke
Before I start I'll add that only 4 of the 15 most recent brackets updated on the Bracket Matrix yesterday had Memphis in. So I wouldn't ride Joe L's take it on that hard. The 4 who have them in may also be influenced by Joe. I think part of it is people who have been slow to react in their "as of now" to what was maybe a 5 seed 4 games ago, losing 4 in a row.
Memphis being around the line still shows a number of key things pertaining to Syracuse though
1) The Bubble Line is not that strong (not that uncommon). Teams that are in as of now, lack something, be it quality wins or other warts.
2) Closing the gap upward by some teams that have very few mentions right now difficult (like Syracuse), but not impossibly difficult.
3) Don't discount Syracuse getting in the discussion with a 7-3 record.
4) NET isn't everything - a NET of 77 is not disqualifying "as of now" to some analysts nor should it be as a standalone number by year end (assuming it ends up somewhere in the 60's for optics reasons)
Memphis has had a glorious fall the last 4 games -- 0-4, with a Q3 loss, a Q4 loss, and losing to a Q3 team (who only became Q2 after beating them). Their NET may have fell about 40 spots in the process, especially since 2 losses were at home (speculating on the figure). Anyway there main selling point is a 6-4 record vs Q1/Q2 teams, which is very good for a bubble team... but add 2 bad losses to it (and possibly a 3rd flipping into one), and all that good is wiped away.
The other thing to ask, is if not Memphis, then who? Who replaces them. Pointing this out below to show that the strength of the bubble line is not great, and to sort of give an idea of "the gap" between us and the line.
Purely looking at the newest 21 brackets on the matrix, we have the following as top outs"
- Butler 9
- Gonzaga 5
- Virginia 5
Butler's resume is as follows:
NET 57
Q1: 3-6 (AT Marquette, H Texas Tech (could fall to Q2), N Boise St (could fall to Q2)
Q2: 1-1
Q1+Q2: 4-7
13-7, no bad losses
I would have them over Memphis because bad losses matter. But they are not that far apart.
But the more important part is how far behind are we from Butler and Memphis as of now (and alternatively the other teams that are in or just out of now). We are behind by a gap, but not at an excessively large one. A 7-3 record, which by default means that we have to go at least 4-3 in Q1+Q2 games, with at least 1 Q1 win, should get us in the discussion. From there who nows.
