Weekend of March 1 to March 3 - Bubble Watch

[hoopsupstate]

Seton Hall is not good. St. John’s and Villanova are average at best. All three would struggle in the ACC. The Big East has three good teams and a bunch of leftovers.

 

[orangenauburn]

Seton Hall is not good. St. John’s and Villanova are average at best. All three would struggle in the ACC. The Big East has three good teams and a bunch of leftovers.

Yup

I have a hard time seeing more than three teams from Big East in.

I'll give them UConn Creighton Marquette

I just don't think Nova has earned it over others.

Definitely no on Providence, Seton Hall, St Johns, Butler

 

[PauliePeppas]

Agreed. Seton hall sucks

 

[jncuse]

Seton Hall is not good. St. John’s and Villanova are average at best. All three would struggle in the ACC. The Big East has three good teams and a bunch of leftovers.

I don't see any real evidence to suggest that either one is really better than the other. Both conferences were quite mid during OOC play. I'd be compelled to call it about a draw amongst the mid card teams.

The BIg East teams benefitted from a few things:
1) Balanced Schedule of 20 games, with 9 of the 11 teams being "decent" or better. Gives you a lot of quality win opportunities at home and road.
2) Cannibalization. In the words of the Rock, "Know your Damn Role". Georgetown and Depaul stank out of conference, and they won 0 and 2 games respectively in the Big East. Louisville, FSU, Notre Dame they go mess up the ACC with horrible OOC play and they start racking up wins in conference handing out bad losses and lowering the NET of others.

 

[jncuse]

UConn beats Seton Hall by 30.
UConn is really, really good (sad face)

UConn has won its 3 recent titles with a 7 seed, and then two teams around #10-15 in the country. So surprises (entering the tournament).

Perhaps they blow it this year -- historically they have had some missteps when they have really good teams. The crazy thing is they have not been a clear top 10 team in the regular season since 2008 (or maybe 2009). And they have 3 national titles since then. It is what it is.

 

[jncuse]

Drake and Indiana St win Q3 games as expected. Results for the weekend now updated below

Last Teams In with Avg Seed over 9.00
9th Last Team In - Michigan St 66 (100%), Seed 9.2 (Q1 Loss)
8th Last Team In - Nebraska 66 (100%), Seed 9.3
7th - Florida Atlantic 65 (98%), Seed 9.7 (Q3 Win)
6th - Virginia 66 (100%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Loss)
5th - Gonzaga 65 (98%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Win)
4th - New Mexico 65 (98%), Seed 10.5 (Q1 Loss)
3rd - Seton Hall 61 (92%), Seed 10.8 (Q1 Loss)
2nd Last Team in - Providence 54 (82%), Seed 10.8 (Q2 Loss)
Last Team in- Wake Forest 52 (79%), Seed 10.8 (Q1 Loss)

First Teams Out (with 1 or more mentions in the matrix)
Ist Team Out - Colorado 21 (32%)
2nd - St. John's 18 (27%) (No Game)
3rd - Utah 14 (21%) (Q3 Win)
4th - Villanova 12 (18%) (Q1 Win)
5th - Drake 2 (3%) (Q3 Win)
6th - Ole Miss 1 (2%) (Q3 Win)
6th - Texas A&M 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)
6th - Pitt - 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)


Others - Bubble Busters to Watch
Indiana St - 11.14 (Win)
Princeton - 11.84 (Win)
Grand Canyon - 11.88 (Win)
This week we cheer for them to lose to take away any potential at large status. Conference tournament we cheer for them to win.

 

[jncuse]

There will be one team to watch this week during conference tourney week... and that will be Indiana State. They may, or may not, get in as at-large (1-3 in Q1, 4-1 in Q2). But it would be best for them to win.

 

[jncuse]

Final Summary for the Weekend as Nebraska and Colorado won Q3 games.

The results were mixed. Would have been nice if one team had done something "stupid" and had a bad loss but that didn't/
a) overall the teams above the line were a "positive" for us. They went 3-6, but 5 of those losses were Q1 games, and 3 were unrealistic wins. I would say Wake and New Mexico blew chances. Providence probably had the worst weekend losing to a fellow bubble team in a head to head at home.

b) The teams below the line went 7-0, and that is certainly not good as those are our peers right now. Now 4 of those wins were Q3 games, but they also had three quality wins. We could have used 1 or 2 losses in this group.


Last Teams In with Avg Seed over 9.00
9th Last Team In - Michigan St 66 (100%), Seed 9.2 (Q1 Loss)
8th Last Team In - Nebraska 66 (100%), Seed 9.3 (Q3 Win)
7th - Florida Atlantic 65 (98%), Seed 9.7 (Q3 Win)
6th - Virginia 66 (100%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Loss)
5th - Gonzaga 65 (98%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Win)
4th - New Mexico 65 (98%), Seed 10.5 (Q1 Loss)
3rd - Seton Hall 61 (92%), Seed 10.8 (Q1 Loss)
2nd Last Team in - Providence 54 (82%), Seed 10.8 (Q2 Loss)
Last Team in- Wake Forest 52 (79%), Seed 10.8 (Q1 Loss)

First Teams Out (with 1 or more mentions in the matrix)
Ist Team Out - Colorado 21 (32%) (Q3 Win)
2nd - St. John's 18 (27%) (No Game)
3rd - Utah 14 (21%) (Q3 Win)
4th - Villanova 12 (18%) (Q1 Win)
5th - Drake 2 (3%) (Q3 Win)
6th - Ole Miss 1 (2%) (Q3 Win)
6th - Texas A&M 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)
6th - Pitt - 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)


Others - Bubble Busters to Watch
Indiana St - 11.14 (Win)
Princeton - 11.84 (Win)
Grand Canyon - 11.88 (Win)
This week we cheer for them to lose to take away any potential at large status. Conference tournament we cheer for them to win.

 

[jncuse]

My expectation for the next matrix update is that Providence is out, Villanova is in.
Wake will still be in, but I expect some will have moved them out -- maybe closer to 65% instead of 80% as a guess.

Everybody below the line will move up a bit with a few more points.

I'll have a new thread for the Monday-Thursday games ... probably post Tuesday morning, as there are no games of substance (for bubble teams) on Monday.