TheCusian
Living Legend
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- Sep 24, 2012
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I'm not sure many people check this stuff out or care too deeply, but I enjoy the perspective I get from digging into the numbers a bit. I've been accused of being too positive about our team - and the numbers help my expectations stay grounded.
Last week I thought looking at Wake, that the board (myself very much included) was underrating them by a lot. I said numbers wise they were looking more like NC State than like Pitt. I didn't predict we'd lose - but I didn't think we'd have 100+ total points scored with us starting The Officer either.
Anyways - I think this week we've probably sunk back into a collective "here we go again" too comfortably. This Louisville team is not the team we played last year. They were very good on D last year (S&P+ D Rank: 19) - this year, they are awful (S&P+ Rank: 98). Everyone remembers Jackson hurdling our CB last year one his way to the Heisman, but that was kind of Dino's coming out party offensively (414 yards of O eclipsed all games vs FBS teams in FHCSS last year).
I think this will be a shootout, weather or not. We have a shot with Mahoney (in some ways he runs the O better than ED). We need our D to bend but not break, even knowing that they will vs Jackson a fair amount. I think we can win. I put it at 45%.
Here's your small PDF version.
And the breakdown (look at that Louisville D!):
Last week I thought looking at Wake, that the board (myself very much included) was underrating them by a lot. I said numbers wise they were looking more like NC State than like Pitt. I didn't predict we'd lose - but I didn't think we'd have 100+ total points scored with us starting The Officer either.
Anyways - I think this week we've probably sunk back into a collective "here we go again" too comfortably. This Louisville team is not the team we played last year. They were very good on D last year (S&P+ D Rank: 19) - this year, they are awful (S&P+ Rank: 98). Everyone remembers Jackson hurdling our CB last year one his way to the Heisman, but that was kind of Dino's coming out party offensively (414 yards of O eclipsed all games vs FBS teams in FHCSS last year).
I think this will be a shootout, weather or not. We have a shot with Mahoney (in some ways he runs the O better than ED). We need our D to bend but not break, even knowing that they will vs Jackson a fair amount. I think we can win. I put it at 45%.
Here's your small PDF version.
And the breakdown (look at that Louisville D!):