Statistical Matchup vs Louisville

[TheCusian]

I'm not sure many people check this stuff out or care too deeply, but I enjoy the perspective I get from digging into the numbers a bit. I've been accused of being too positive about our team - and the numbers help my expectations stay grounded.

Last week I thought looking at Wake, that the board (myself very much included) was underrating them by a lot. I said numbers wise they were looking more like NC State than like Pitt. I didn't predict we'd lose - but I didn't think we'd have 100+ total points scored with us starting The Officer either.

Anyways - I think this week we've probably sunk back into a collective "here we go again" too comfortably. This Louisville team is not the team we played last year. They were very good on D last year (S&P+ D Rank: 19) - this year, they are awful (S&P+ Rank: 98). Everyone remembers Jackson hurdling our CB last year one his way to the Heisman, but that was kind of Dino's coming out party offensively (414 yards of O eclipsed all games vs FBS teams in FHCSS last year).

I think this will be a shootout, weather or not. We have a shot with Mahoney (in some ways he runs the O better than ED). We need our D to bend but not break, even knowing that they will vs Jackson a fair amount. I think we can win. I put it at 45%.

Here's your small PDF version.

And the breakdown (look at that Louisville D!):

 

[upperdeck]

Last year vs pitt Mahoney ran 13 times and several design runs.. We ran about 2 last week. I think we play the offense full out this week and he pulls the ball back on some RPO this week.. It was there for the taking last week and he never ran it once.

Since Pitt game we have run for 135/162/264/149/178 and avg 500 yds.

you could argue at least three games turned on missed field goals. Lets see that change this week as well

We have had huge INTS in the losses, and UL fumbles a lot.. which thing doesnt happen this week.

 

[TheCusian]

Last year vs pitt Mahoney ran 13 times and several design runs.. We ran about 2 last week. I think we play the offense full out this week and he pulls the ball back on some RPO this week.. It was there for the taking last week and he never ran it once.

Since Pitt game we have run for 135/162/264/149/178 and avg 500 yds.

you could argue at least three games turned on missed field goals. Lets see that change this week as well

We have had huge INTS in the losses, and UL fumbles a lot.. which thing doesnt happen this week.

Yeah, I felt like including a TO margin stat this week. It's been killing us. Missed FB are basically TO's too.

I wonder if Strickland can't go, if Moe and MP turn in some surprise performances. The line blocked pretty well last week - we had some long Bowling Green Babers type runs in the 1st half.

 

[upperdeck]

You watch the Wake game and speed that Colburn hit the hole was crazy compared to how our guys do it. He ran right by guys, our guys seem to get tripped every time there is a hole.. There were some huge holes that we left out there last week.. Thats a positive sign.

Speed Speed Speed. Much like Mahoney.. We max out a play but never get any extra yds, guys like Jackson turn 20 into 60.

 

[qdawgg]

If we do lose, hopefully we don’t have to read for a week how their players have more stars than ours, how their D is actually better than it looks - which is opposite of what we say the week leading up to the games.

 

[TheCusian]

You watch the Wake game and speed that Colburn hit the hole was crazy compared to how our guys do it. He ran right by guys, our guys seem to get tripped every time there is a hole.. There were some huge holes that we left out there last week.. Thats a positive sign.

Speed Speed Speed. Much like Mahoney.. We max out a play but never get any extra yds, guys like Jackson turn 20 into 60.

Yep - that was noticble on first watch. Guy hit the hole like his pants were literally on fire.