Our range of outcomes here goes from the JB suspension does not matter at all to the JB suspension games did not happen. Where things will fall in that spectrum is anyone's guess.
If we go pessimist and say the suspension does not matter, then I think it's clear. We need to beat Pitt, and even that may only get us into Dayton.
If we go optimist, the rpi wizard says our new rpi is 23 with an SOS of 9. That's a definite tourney resume and arguably in line for a top 5 seed. The late slip probably drops us a couple lines to like a 7.
So our range is borderline out if they ignore the suspension to wearing a white jersey in our first game if the suspension eliminates those 9 games.
So where do we end up?
I'm guessing the pessimist view that the suspension is ignored is not true. You can't look at Wichita and talk about their injury but ignore the JB thing.
The total optimist view doesn't seem reasonable either. Those games happened and they shouldn't be completely ignored.
Contrary to what was said by some nationally respected bracket experts, I think you can find cases where injuries were taken into account and seeds were helped. Mich St in 2000 benefitted, and they may again this year. Wichita probably will this year too. I would bet a thorough investigation would show teams benefitting by a line here or there. The flexibility of seed lines in bracketing makes it hard to be sure either way though.
At the end of the day my guess is we benefit by a seed line or two come Sunday. We have really good wins. At duke carries a ton of weight. The Bahamas is hard to ignore too.
I think if we lose we could easily end up in Dayton, or maybe even above that.
Common sense readings of our resume would point to us being borderline out now to out with a loss to Pitt. I'm guessing the committee gives us a small benefit of the doubt due to JB and we move up a bit.
