The Contenders - Week 13

[SWC75]

The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.

I’ve decided to simplify these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.

Update: I’ve decided that beginning November, (the month they’ll remember, per Coach Mac), that I would supply the same sort of specifics I’ve presented in past years for each one: the full schedule, the record, the point differential, the various rankings and appoints accumulated against ranked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post.) The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls.

Undefeated teams:

ALABAMA 12-0 (473-137) ranked #1 / 212 points against ranked teams (PART)
12/3 Florida (8-3, 265-161) ranked #13/ 16 PART in the conference title game.

Comments: Alabama will be in, even if they lose, which seems unlikely.


One loss teams:

CLEMSON 11-1 (480-204) ranked #3 / 46 PART
12/3 Virginia Tech 9-3 (420-253) 40 PART in the conference title game

OHIO STATE 11-1 (512-170) ranked #2 / 143 PART

WASHINGTON 11-1 (537-214) ranked #4 / 114 PART
12/2 Colorado (10-2, 417-225, ranked #8 / 27 PART) in the conference title game

Comments: Those are your four teams barring an upset in the conference title games. If there is, there will be a scramble between the losers of those games, the teams that beat them, the Big Ten winner and the Big 12 winner.


Power Five 2 Loss teams:

Colorado 10-2 (417-225) ranked #8 / 27 PART
Michigan 10-2 (492-150) ranked #5 / 46 PART
Oklahoma 9-2 (498-336) ranked #7 / 40 PART
Oklahoma State 9-2 (444-299) ranked #10 / 55 PART
Penn State 10-2 (439-273) ranked #7 / 27 PART
West Virginia 9-2 (367-260) ranked #13 / 0 PART
Wisconsin 10-2 (342-164) ranked #5 / 122 PART

Comment: Oklahoma and State will play next week and that will eliminate one of them. West Virginia will play slumping Baylor.) These teams will be trying for or praying for an upset in the conference title games involving the one loss teams. Otherwise, forget it.

 

[SWC75]

THE PESCI BOWL

Besides keeping track of the current contenders for the college football play, for the last couple of years I have been imagining something I call the Pesci Bowl- a bowl game between the two best teams who were unable to make the playoff besides excellent records because their schedules were not considered “big time”. In current parlance, that would mean teams that aren’t in the “Power Five” conferences. (For my estimation of who might have played in previous “Pesci Bowls” – see below). I’ve named the fictional event after actor Joe Pesci, a vertically challenged but feisty actor we’ve seen in many films, especially “Goodfellas” and “Casino”.

I’ve listed the non-Power Five teams with no or one loss with the teams they have left to play on their schedules that are also on the list. The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls. ‘Points’ against ranked teams are from my week “Against Ranked Teams” post.


WESTERN MICHIGAN 12-0 (537-230) ranked 13th / 0 Points against ranked teams (PART)
12/2 Ohio U.7-4, (313-257), 2 PART in the MAC title game.


2-loss teams:

Boise State 10-2 (427-272) 0 PART
Navy 9-2 (459-331) ranked #19 / 26 PART
South Florida 10-2 (523-372) 11 PART
Troy 9-2 (386-236) 0 PART


Comments: South Florida will play Navy in the AAC title game and then Navy will play Army. Troy still has a game against Georgia Southern. I can’t imagine picking them over the other three two lost teams. Since Boise won’t be playing for their conference title I’ll probably pick the AAC winner to play Western Michigan.

 

[SWC75]

THE TY-DEE BOWL

For the last few years I’ve had a fantasy about having the two worst teams in the country play in a bowl game to see who is the worst of the worst, (among major teams). It’s kind of mean-spirted and they might say no – but it could be quite a hard fought and entertaining game and maybe the schools might need the money – and have a desire to prove that they aren’t the worst by beating a team they might actually be able to beat. Here are all the FBS teams that are currently winless and those who currently have one loss and their upcoming games against each other. (I call it the Ty-Dee Bowl after the toilet cleaning product.)


There are no winless teams

The one win teams:

FRESNO STATE 1-11 (212-371)


The two win teams:

Buffalo 2-10 (198-388) -190
Kansas 2-10 (243-448) -205
Massachusetts 2-10 (280-426) -146
Rutgers 2-10 (188-450) -262
Texas State 2-9 (209-457) -248
Virginia 2-10 (270-405) -135 16 Points against Ranked teams

Comments: Fresno, a solid program, managed to make it into the Ty-Dee bowl with a 14-16 loss to a 4-8 San Jose State team, a week after losing a 13-14 game to Hawaii. Texas State has a game left against Arkansas State. Everyone else on this page is done. If they lose that game by more than two touchdowns, they will be the Bulldogs opponent in the Tydee Bowl. Otherwise, it will be Rutgers.