The next two games

[TheCusian]

will tell us a lot.

Bill Connelly has updated his Syracuse profile.

- The data gives us a 61% shot at winning this weekend (the highest of any game left on the schedule).
- The data gives us a 30% shot at winning vs ND (much higher than anyone here would have suggested at the beginning of the season, I think)

What's interesting is that ND's D has been not good, esp vs the pass. They are giving up 6 yards a play as a defense. We've played better/comparable offenses. We're giving up 7.17 yards a play with is really horrible. It's those big plays (and some of those Louisville big plays need an "holy crap they are amazing and probably the #1 offense in the country" asterisk. We're bad and give up big plays - but that game is skewing things a bit.)

For me to believe that we can beat ND, I need to see some things vs UCONN:

- a win. Obviously.
- a better defensive effort vs the run (I don't think UCONN is capable of torching us through the air. But we need to show that we can stop the run).
- no big plays vs a really bad UCONN O
- our offense with a more consistent performance (less occasionally great, more consistently good)

It's crazy to think that we may have shot vs ND. More talent, yes. Unlikely, sure.

But I'll take 30%.

 

[upperdeck]

the big plays vs USF were really 2 long runs on complete team mental break downs.. several of the UL ones were dang he is hard to tackle and FSU found that out too.

limiting the blown assignments is the key and make the other team actually block and make a play. when teams start gashing you for 5-10 a play then you are in trouble.

we still had too many coverage mistakes last week, but they didnt hurt as much as USF dropped a couple and that QB is wildly inaccurate much of the time.

 

[Chip]

I think the UConn game tells us more than anything we get from ND.

Beat UConn by a couple TDs and you're basically saying ok, we're still better than the low end teams (UConn, Wake, BC), so the hill isn't as far up to climb.

Lose to UConn and you start looking forward to 2018.

(well, not exactly just yet, but suddenly the unthinkable 1 or 2 win season isn't quite as unthinkable).

 

[HRE Otto IV]

We need to outscore teams. We cannot outscore people by giving our RB the ball 15 times in a Q at 3-9 yards a clip. I am not saying that we should abandon the run, but we should use it to keep teams honest.

 

[Chip]

We need to outscore teams. We cannot outscore people by giving our RB the ball 15 times in a Q at 3-9 yards a clip. I am not saying that we should abandon the run, but we should use it to keep teams honest.

I haven't paid much attention to defensive alignments against us, but I know we go 3 WR, 1 TE, or 4 WR almost exclusively. So are the defenses going nickel or dime and daring us to run. And still stopping us with 5 or 6 in the box?

Remember that formation against Colgate with Lasker and Ruff lined up in the backfield? I believe Mo Neal's TD run (our longest run of the year by far) was from that formation. Have we seen it since? Looked like an inverted wishbone.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I haven't paid much attention to defensive alignments against us, but I know we go 3 WR, 1 TE, or 4 WR almost exclusively. So are the defenses going nickel or dime and daring us to run. And still stopping us with 5 or 6 in the box?

Remember that formation against Colgate with Lasker and Ruff lined up in the backfield? I believe Mo Neal's TD run (our longest run of the year by far) was from that formation. Have we seen it since? Looked like an inverted wishbone.

We ran that formation a few times vs Colgate, I haven't noticed it since.

We can't run. So if all it takes to get us out of the passing game is to dare us to run, then every team should simply dare us to run and game over. When we have had passing downs we have been successful. So if teams are playing our pass and can't stop it, why run the ball if we aren't getting 5 ypc?

 

[Chip]

We ran that formation a few times vs Colgate, I haven't noticed it since.

We can't run. So if all it takes to get us out of the passing game is to dare us to run, then every team should simply dare us to run and game over. When we have had passing downs we have been successful. So if teams are playing our pass and can't stop it, why run the ball if we aren't getting 5 ypc?

I think teams are going to continue to dare us to run. Maybe USF has more pure athletes at DB so they can pull it off. I can't imagine UConn does. If the OL improves, we should start having our way with the teams of lesser talent.

I read that UConn has one pretty good DB who could be Sunday worthy. I'd imagine there's a big dropoff after that. So they put that guy on ET and take their chances. Someone like Ishmael should have a big game. I feel really good about our collection of WRs. And just wait until Riley is ready to contribute more. That's the quickest guy we've had here in a long time. I also like Butler a lot too. Easily beat his man deep on the Mahoney pass late, but just a couple inches overthrown.

 

[TheCusian]

We ran that formation a few times vs Colgate, I haven't noticed it since.

We can't run. So if all it takes to get us out of the passing game is to dare us to run, then every team should simply dare us to run and game over. When we have had passing downs we have been successful. So if teams are playing our pass and can't stop it, why run the ball if we aren't getting 5 ypc?

We need to outscore teams. We cannot outscore people by giving our RB the ball 15 times in a Q at 3-9 yards a clip. I am not saying that we should abandon the run, but we should use it to keep teams honest.

I disagree. The run game up the gut is the way this offense gets you out of nickel/dime coverage or cheating LB's. Watch Baylor. They punish teams that take away those deep seam routes or who play their LB out wide to stop the quick WR screen.

The whole offense is predicated on deep verticals, WR who line up really wide to catch screens, and a punishing inside run when you set up to stop the other two.

If the numbers say to run, you run. What needs to get better is the run blocking on the line and Stricklands ability to take advantage of it. It hasn't been executed like the other two.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I disagree. The run game up the gut is the way this offense gets you out of nickel/dime coverage or cheating LB's. Watch Baylor. They punish teams that take away those deep seam routes or who play their LB out wide to stop the quick WR screen.

The whole offense is predicated on deep verticals, WR who line up really wide to catch screens, and a punishing inside run when you set up to stop the other two.

If the numbers say to run, you run. What needs to get better is the run blocking on the line and Stricklands ability to take advantage of it. It hasn't been executed like the other two.

The problem is we aren't good at running the ball. What you say works in theory but not in reality. Neither USF or Louisville needed to put 7 in the box. So they were able to play pass with 5 and stop the run with 6. When you do what the D wants and it is something you aren't good at, you are playing into the other team's hands. Somehow Leach has found a way to pass and never run. I am not saying go full blown Leach, but to be a pass first team that uses the run off the pass.

 

[Eric15]

I'm just ready to be entertained. In our two games against FBS opponents, basically only 1 quarter was enjoyable as a fan. That's a total 180 from last year where September was very exciting.

 

[721Comstock]

I'm just ready to be entertained. In our two games against FBS opponents, basically only 1 quarter was enjoyable as a fan. That's a total 180 from last year where September was very exciting.

We played against hot garbage last September. Apples and walruses.

 

[Briancuse]

will tell us a lot.

Bill Connelly has updated his Syracuse profile.

- The data gives us a 61% shot at winning this weekend (the highest of any game left on the schedule).
- The data gives us a 30% shot at winning vs ND (much higher than anyone here would have suggested at the beginning of the season, I think)

What's interesting is that ND's D has been not good, esp vs the pass. They are giving up 6 yards a play as a defense. We've played better/comparable offenses. We're giving up 7.17 yards a play with is really horrible. It's those big plays (and some of those Louisville big plays need an "holy crap they are amazing and probably the #1 offense in the country" asterisk. We're bad and give up big plays - but that game is skewing things a bit.)

For me to believe that we can beat ND, I need to see some things vs UCONN:

- a win. Obviously.
- a better defensive effort vs the run (I don't think UCONN is capable of torching us through the air. But we need to show that we can stop the run).
- no big plays vs a really bad UCONN O
- our offense with a more consistent performance (less occasionally great, more consistently good)

It's crazy to think that we may have shot vs ND. More talent, yes. Unlikely, sure.

But I'll take 30%.

Not to look ahead to Nd, but there is no reason why we shouldn't put some points on the board, their defense is flat out garbage.

 

[TheCusian]

The problem is we aren't good at running the ball. What you say works in theory but not in reality. Neither USF or Louisville needed to put 7 in the box. So they were able to play pass with 5 and stop the run with 6. When you do what the D wants and it is something you aren't good at, you are playing into the other team's hands. Somehow Leach has found a way to pass and never run. I am not saying go full blown Leach, but to be a pass first team that uses the run off the pass.

I'm not ready to say we can't run the ball.

I also don't think it's just counting numbers - it's where the LB and S lineup. If it's favorable to run, we run.

 

[TheCusian]

Not to look ahead to Nd, but there is no reason why we shouldn't put some points on the board, their defense is flat out garbage.

Agreed. I think ultimately, their talent wins out... that's why I want to see some steps taken this week.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I'm not ready to say we can't run the ball.

I also don't think it's just counting numbers - it's where the LB and S lineup. If it's favorable to run, we run.

It was favorable to run in the 2nd Q and 3rd Q (I think we ran the ball 20+ times total despite being behind) yet we only got about 3 ypc. If we are getting 5 ypc like we were in the 1st Q then I am perfectly happy running the ball all day. But when it is favorable to run and you only get 3 ypc I rather throw the ball.

 

[TheCusian]

It was favorable to run in the 2nd Q and 3rd Q (I think we ran the ball 20+ times total despite being behind) yet we only got about 3 ypc. If we are getting 5 ypc like we were in the 1st Q then I am perfectly happy running the ball all day. But when it is favorable to run and you only get 3 ypc I rather throw the ball.

And throw INT?

The offense works when it's balanced. We didn't bring in Leach. This particular offense needs runs up the middle to be dynamic. I prefer Fredericks to the other two and I'm not totally sure our line is up to snuff. But I don't think you abandon it and become 1 dimensional.

We just need a bit more from them and it will open up the offense. That's worth it, IMO.

 

[Tobias Funke]

I'm just ready to be entertained. In our two games against FBS opponents, basically only 1 quarter was enjoyable as a fan. That's a total 180 from last year where September was very exciting.

September last year was against URi central Michigan and wake. Kind of Kent itself to being not enjoyable. Plug Louisville and use in and well we are exactly where we are right now.

 

[Ish88888]

I disagree. The run game up the gut is the way this offense gets you out of nickel/dime coverage or cheating LB's. Watch Baylor. They punish teams that take away those deep seam routes or who play their LB out wide to stop the quick WR screen.

The whole offense is predicated on deep verticals, WR who line up really wide to catch screens, and a punishing inside run when you set up to stop the other two.

If the numbers say to run, you run. What needs to get better is the run blocking on the line and Stricklands ability to take advantage of it. It hasn't been executed like the other two.

I liked how we pounded usf up the middle early and established the run. However, i didnt like tbe fact we didnt take advantage of play action deep off that.

 

[Eric15]

September last year was against URi central Michigan and wake. Kind of Kent itself to being not enjoyable. Plug Louisville and use in and well we are exactly where we are right now.

I'm talking purely entertainment value. CMU, Wake and LSU were each very exciting games. Even after we lost the LSU game I felt generally satisfied.

 

[GoSU96]

I haven't paid much attention to defensive alignments against us, but I know we go 3 WR, 1 TE, or 4 WR almost exclusively. So are the defenses going nickel or dime and daring us to run. And still stopping us with 5 or 6 in the box?

Remember that formation against Colgate with Lasker and Ruff lined up in the backfield? I believe Mo Neal's TD run (our longest run of the year by far) was from that formation. Have we seen it since? Looked like an inverted wishbone.

You've hit on the problem. Against Lville and USF they weren't forced to load the box to contain the run and we couldn't get over the top enough passing so the pass game was controlled. Lots of yards, but extended drives. Only takes a couple of bad plays in a row to get off the field, you don't need three and out everytime.

 

[TheCusian]

You've hit on the problem. Against Lville and USF they weren't forced to load the box to contain the run and we couldn't get over the top enough passing so the pass game was controlled. Lots of yards, but extended drives. Only takes a couple of bad plays in a row to get off the field, you don't need three and out everytime.

Yep. For it to really work well you need to be able to move the ball enough for them to shift their LB in and/or bring more into the box or go to nickel or dime where you have smaller guys.

You can always pass to the sidelines for easy completions and that might loosen things a bit. But not like running at 6-7 yds a clip would.

 

[CanadianSU]

I liked how we pounded usf up the middle early and established the run. However, i didnt like tbe fact we didnt take advantage of play action deep off that.

Mind boggling,