SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In it’s 14 years, 28 teams have played for the national championship. 17 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 10 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. Four had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only last year and in 2006 did we have a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 7-0 #1
10/27 Mississippi State 7-0 #11
11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 #6
11/10 Texas A&M 5-2 #20
11/17 Western Carolina 1-7 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-6
The Tide will face three significant challenges in a row from October 27 through November 10th. LSU will be waiting for them like Andy Jackson was waiting for the British to come. But the Tide is better than all three teams and has the other two at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the national title game again.
FLORIDA 7-0, #2
10/27 Georgia 6-1 #10
11/3 Missouri 3-4
11/10 Louisiana-Lafayette 4-3
11/17 Jacksonville State 3-3 (FCS)
11/24 at Florida State 7-1 #12
Their game with South Carolina was huge but traditional rivals Georgia and Florida State will challenge them, as well. The first is at home and the second a non-SEC game, so they will likely renew their rivalry with Alabama in the SEC title game, where they‘ve met 7 times.
KANSAS STATE 7-0, #3
10/27 Texas Tech 6-1 #14
11/3 Oklahoma State 4-2
11/10 at Texas Christian 5-2
11/17 at Baylor 3-3
12/1 Texas 5-2 #23
I wasn’t taking them seriously as a possible title contender but I am now, although West Virginia’s credentials have to be seriously questioned at this point. Texas Tech is obviously a big game but watch out for the trip to TCU. Remember that there’s no Big 12 championship game.
OREGON 7-0, #4
10/27 Colorado 1-6
11/3 at Southern California 6-1 #9
11/10 at California 3-5
11/17 Stanford 5-2 #17
11/24 at Oregon State 6-0 #7
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State, as well as a likely rematch with the Trojans in the Pac 12 title game.
NOTRE DAME 7-0, #5
10/27 at Oklahoma 5-1 #8
11/3 Pittsburgh 3-4
11/10 at Boston College 1-6
11/17 Wake Forest 4-3
11/24 at Southern California 6-1 #9
They still have to beat Oklahoma and Southern California. But this is a good team and Brian Kelly can flat-out coach, whatever you may think of him. If the Irish run the table, can you keep them out of the national title game?
OREGON STATE 6-0, #7
10/27 at Washington 3-4
11/3 Arizona State 5-2
11/10 at Stanford 5-2 #17
11/17 California 3-5
11/24 Oregon 7-0 #4
12/1 Nicholls State 1-5 (FCS)
They have to beat ASU, (Oregon made them look bad but are they?) and Stanford. Then comes the big one vs. Oregon. I can’t quite see them on this list at the end.
LOUISVILLE 7-0, #16
10/26 Cincinnati 5-1
11/3 Temple 3-3
11/10 at Syracuse 3-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-5
11/29 at Rutgers 7-0 #15
We keep talking about how bad the Big East is and how we still might be able to win it. Imagine if we were undefeated like Louisville and Rutgers? Would the BCS invite a Big East team?
MISSISSIPPI STATE 7-0, #11
10/27 at Alabama 7-0 #1
11/3 Texas A&M 5-2 #20
11/10 at Louisiana State 7-1 #6
11/17 Arkansas 3-4
11/24 at Mississippi 4-3
Another team looking forward to 10/27-11/10. That’s their season. They aren’t traveling to both Alabama and LSU and coming back with wins. They looked awfully impressive, though vs. Middle Tennessee, who had beaten Georgia Tech by 3 touchdowns.
RUTGERS 7-0, #15
10/27 Kent State 6-1
11/10 Army 1-6
11/17 at Cincinnati 5-1
11/24 at Pittsburgh 3-4
11/29 Louisville 7-0 #16
Cincinnati’s shocking loss to Toledo deprived the conference of one of it’s three unbeaten flag-bearers. If Toledo could beat the bearcats, the Scarlet Knights should look out for Kent State. But we could still have the Louisville game be a battle of 11-0 teams. Wouldn’t Mike Tranghese love that?
Overall: Alabama-Mississippi State suddenly is a big game between 7-0 teams. So is Florida and Georgia. I wonder if Dana Holgerson could give us a line on K-State vs. Texas Tech? Then there’s Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma. People are suggesting that we’ll find out if the Irish are “for real”. I think they are. Cincinnati will be dangerous after being upset. And watch out for the Kent State game. I have a feeling…. It will be an interesting weekend.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 7-0 #1
10/27 Mississippi State 7-0 #11
11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 #6
11/10 Texas A&M 5-2 #20
11/17 Western Carolina 1-7 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-6
The Tide will face three significant challenges in a row from October 27 through November 10th. LSU will be waiting for them like Andy Jackson was waiting for the British to come. But the Tide is better than all three teams and has the other two at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the national title game again.
FLORIDA 7-0, #2
10/27 Georgia 6-1 #10
11/3 Missouri 3-4
11/10 Louisiana-Lafayette 4-3
11/17 Jacksonville State 3-3 (FCS)
11/24 at Florida State 7-1 #12
Their game with South Carolina was huge but traditional rivals Georgia and Florida State will challenge them, as well. The first is at home and the second a non-SEC game, so they will likely renew their rivalry with Alabama in the SEC title game, where they‘ve met 7 times.
KANSAS STATE 7-0, #3
10/27 Texas Tech 6-1 #14
11/3 Oklahoma State 4-2
11/10 at Texas Christian 5-2
11/17 at Baylor 3-3
12/1 Texas 5-2 #23
I wasn’t taking them seriously as a possible title contender but I am now, although West Virginia’s credentials have to be seriously questioned at this point. Texas Tech is obviously a big game but watch out for the trip to TCU. Remember that there’s no Big 12 championship game.
OREGON 7-0, #4
10/27 Colorado 1-6
11/3 at Southern California 6-1 #9
11/10 at California 3-5
11/17 Stanford 5-2 #17
11/24 at Oregon State 6-0 #7
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State, as well as a likely rematch with the Trojans in the Pac 12 title game.
NOTRE DAME 7-0, #5
10/27 at Oklahoma 5-1 #8
11/3 Pittsburgh 3-4
11/10 at Boston College 1-6
11/17 Wake Forest 4-3
11/24 at Southern California 6-1 #9
They still have to beat Oklahoma and Southern California. But this is a good team and Brian Kelly can flat-out coach, whatever you may think of him. If the Irish run the table, can you keep them out of the national title game?
OREGON STATE 6-0, #7
10/27 at Washington 3-4
11/3 Arizona State 5-2
11/10 at Stanford 5-2 #17
11/17 California 3-5
11/24 Oregon 7-0 #4
12/1 Nicholls State 1-5 (FCS)
They have to beat ASU, (Oregon made them look bad but are they?) and Stanford. Then comes the big one vs. Oregon. I can’t quite see them on this list at the end.
LOUISVILLE 7-0, #16
10/26 Cincinnati 5-1
11/3 Temple 3-3
11/10 at Syracuse 3-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-5
11/29 at Rutgers 7-0 #15
We keep talking about how bad the Big East is and how we still might be able to win it. Imagine if we were undefeated like Louisville and Rutgers? Would the BCS invite a Big East team?
MISSISSIPPI STATE 7-0, #11
10/27 at Alabama 7-0 #1
11/3 Texas A&M 5-2 #20
11/10 at Louisiana State 7-1 #6
11/17 Arkansas 3-4
11/24 at Mississippi 4-3
Another team looking forward to 10/27-11/10. That’s their season. They aren’t traveling to both Alabama and LSU and coming back with wins. They looked awfully impressive, though vs. Middle Tennessee, who had beaten Georgia Tech by 3 touchdowns.
RUTGERS 7-0, #15
10/27 Kent State 6-1
11/10 Army 1-6
11/17 at Cincinnati 5-1
11/24 at Pittsburgh 3-4
11/29 Louisville 7-0 #16
Cincinnati’s shocking loss to Toledo deprived the conference of one of it’s three unbeaten flag-bearers. If Toledo could beat the bearcats, the Scarlet Knights should look out for Kent State. But we could still have the Louisville game be a battle of 11-0 teams. Wouldn’t Mike Tranghese love that?
Overall: Alabama-Mississippi State suddenly is a big game between 7-0 teams. So is Florida and Georgia. I wonder if Dana Holgerson could give us a line on K-State vs. Texas Tech? Then there’s Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma. People are suggesting that we’ll find out if the Irish are “for real”. I think they are. Cincinnati will be dangerous after being upset. And watch out for the Kent State game. I have a feeling…. It will be an interesting weekend.
