The way these guys approach the game it

[GoSU96]

all math.

You get to a certain level of efficiency combined with the number of plays you run has a multiplier effect.

Through three games, #1 in plays run, # 10 in passing yards per game. Really, really good sign, #38 in third down conversions, that is huge.

Problem is #89 in yds per play, #92 in rushing yds per game, #111 in yds per carry, #85 in scoring offense, and my guess close to last in pts per play.

The lack of efficiency killed them because of a factor that some dismiss, field position. SU was starting inside the 15 more often than not and they would move the ball and stall out on the plus side of the field. Even going fast it's hard to close on 15 play drives, the odds catch up with you. Meanwhile USF had a series of short fields (which is the danger of going for it on 4th down) and that really hurt.

Right now the style of offense and the lack of efficiency is having an multiplier effect going the other way, it's killing the defense. Not with ToP, SU dominated last night and wore themselves out on offense, but in the number of possessions they have to defend.

I don't think the answer is abandon the run, they have to keep working it and get it a little better. 1/2 yd more per play, a yd more per carry, and the points will come.

As for the defense, all they really need to do is not give up so many home run plays.

It's three games in, relax.

 

[GoSU96]

all math.

You get to a certain level of efficiency combined with the number of plays you run has a multiplier effect.

Through three games, #1 in plays run, # 10 in passing yards per game. Really, really good sign, #38 in third down conversions, that is huge.

Problem is #89 in yds per play, #92 in rushing yds per game, #111 in yds per carry, #85 in scoring offense, and my guess close to last in pts per play.

The lack of efficiency killed them because of a factor that some dismiss, field position. SU was starting inside the 15 more often than not and they would move the ball and stall out on the plus side of the field. Even going fast it's hard to close on 15 play drives, the odds catch up with you. Meanwhile USF had a series of short fields (which is the danger of going for it on 4th down) and that really hurt.

Right now the style of offense and the lack of efficiency is having an multiplier effect going the other way, it's killing the defense. Not with ToP, SU dominated last night and wore themselves out on offense, but in the number of possessions they have to defend.

I don't think the answer is abandon the run, they have to keep working it and get it a little better. 1/2 yd more per play, a yd more per carry, and the points will come.

As for the defense, all they really need to do is not give up so many home run plays.

It's three games in, relax.

And if you are going to go for so much on 4th down, better be much better than 5 out of 9.

 

[TheCusian]

all math.

You get to a certain level of efficiency combined with the number of plays you run has a multiplier effect.

Through three games, #1 in plays run, # 10 in passing yards per game. Really, really good sign, #38 in third down conversions, that is huge.

Problem is #89 in yds per play, #92 in rushing yds per game, #111 in yds per carry, #85 in scoring offense, and my guess close to last in pts per play.

The lack of efficiency killed them because of a factor that some dismiss, field position. SU was starting inside the 15 more often than not and they would move the ball and stall out on the plus side of the field. Even going fast it's hard to close on 15 play drives, the odds catch up with you. Meanwhile USF had a series of short fields (which is the danger of going for it on 4th down) and that really hurt.

Right now the style of offense and the lack of efficiency is having an multiplier effect going the other way, it's killing the defense. Not with ToP, SU dominated last night and wore themselves out on offense, but in the number of possessions they have to defend.

I don't think the answer is abandon the run, they have to keep working it and get it a little better. 1/2 yd more per play, a yd more per carry, and the points will come.

As for the defense, all they really need to do is not give up so many home run plays.

It's three games in, relax.

I thought it was interesting that they didn't give up a lot of long drives with a lot of plays. It was either an explosive play or a stop.

A couple the last few weeks were talented O players making plays - but if it really if communication and inexperience, that stuff will get better week to week. That's what I'm looking for.

 

[SUskibum]

And if you are going to go for so much on 4th down, better be much better than 5 out of 9.

I agree with everything you said in your first post but don't agree with this.

I will gladly make the trade for 5 extra offensive possessions for 4 opponent possessions that may start 30-40 yards closer to their end zone. I am not sure mathematically what the conversion % needs to be to win the probability but I am guessing 56% is more than good enough to come out ahead.

 

[upperdeck]

if you sit in the endzone, it was amazing the number of runs that we had pretty good holes yesterday.. the first time all year you could actually see a crack.. but the DT of USF were able to stop it with one arm and turn it into a 3-4 yd gain.

thats where a bit more power from the RB would help, but also it means the oline needs to hold that block just a split second longer.. as GO said.. if those runs were 4-5 yds then we would have had 3-5 less 3rd down tries, and less chances for the Offense to sputter out.

We has USF running in circles several times, but we would drop a catchable ball, get a penalty, hit the wrong hole, then make a bad pass.

30 first downs is still a ton and imagine if we had just a bit more athleticism on that side of the ball. if we had 2 guys who could get deep to stretch the field or just one power RB, or even 1 RB who could turn the corner a bit better.

Moe needs to be our Phillips replacement not our #2 back. thats a depth issue.

we had close to 250 both halves, dont know how we managed to score 3 points on 300 yds offense and not really punt.

 

[Shenexon]

all math.

You get to a certain level of efficiency combined with the number of plays you run has a multiplier effect.

Through three games, #1 in plays run, # 10 in passing yards per game. Really, really good sign, #38 in third down conversions, that is huge.

Problem is #89 in yds per play, #92 in rushing yds per game, #111 in yds per carry, #85 in scoring offense, and my guess close to last in pts per play.

The lack of efficiency killed them because of a factor that some dismiss, field position. SU was starting inside the 15 more often than not and they would move the ball and stall out on the plus side of the field. Even going fast it's hard to close on 15 play drives, the odds catch up with you. Meanwhile USF had a series of short fields (which is the danger of going for it on 4th down) and that really hurt.

Right now the style of offense and the lack of efficiency is having an multiplier effect going the other way, it's killing the defense. Not with ToP, SU dominated last night and wore themselves out on offense, but in the number of possessions they have to defend.

I don't think the answer is abandon the run, they have to keep working it and get it a little better. 1/2 yd more per play, a yd more per carry, and the points will come.

As for the defense, all they really need to do is not give up so many home run plays.

It's three games in, relax.

Nice perspective. We dominated stats but gave up too many big plays. I thought field position was key as well. We could be a much better team by the end of the season, with growing pains along the way. There was a lot to be pleased with even with the loss. LGO!!

 

[chakka3421]

if you sit in the endzone, it was amazing the number of runs that we had pretty good holes yesterday.. the first time all year you could actually see a crack.. but the DT of USF were able to stop it with one arm and turn it into a 3-4 yd gain.

thats where a bit more power from the RB would help, but also it means the oline needs to hold that block just a split second longer.. as GO said.. if those runs were 4-5 yds then we would have had 3-5 less 3rd down tries, and less chances for the Offense to sputter out.

We has USF running in circles several times, but we would drop a catchable ball, get a penalty, hit the wrong hole, then make a bad pass.

30 first downs is still a ton and imagine if we had just a bit more athleticism on that side of the ball. if we had 2 guys who could get deep to stretch the field or just one power RB, or even 1 RB who could turn the corner a bit better.

Moe needs to be our Phillips replacement not our #2 back. thats a depth issue.

we had close to 250 both halves, dont know how we managed to score 3 points on 300 yds offense and not really punt.

A head scratcher of a game. Against Lville, we had over 400 yards of offense while FSU had less than 300 yards. We get over 500 yards this game and...no points to show for it. Im all in with that kind of production - points are coming.

You can't have that much offense and not score more points. I don't know when but the elements of success are there. On that first interception just saw the replay and Etta-Tawo was wide open and had the D beat but Dungey under throws it versus leading him to the end zone.

Secondly just watched some replays and our run blocking was much better this game. Seems like the Oline is picking up the right blocking assignments - yet not consistent yet either.

Goods points upperdeck...its just seems like our players are still learning. Although depressing losses are to me and all of us, the offense is getting better and the D seems its getting better too but too many mental mistakes and coverage breakdowns is still killing us.

The Tampa 2 works - North Dakota St just beat #13 Iowa. Nuff said.

 

[Chip]

if you sit in the endzone, it was amazing the number of runs that we had pretty good holes yesterday.. the first time all year you could actually see a crack.. but the DT of USF were able to stop it with one arm and turn it into a 3-4 yd gain.

That one DT is a beast. Normally I'd get upset about our RBs not being able to break an arm tackle. But not him. Monster. Can't move him.

 

[Millhouse]

if you sit in the endzone, it was amazing the number of runs that we had pretty good holes yesterday.. the first time all year you could actually see a crack.. but the DT of USF were able to stop it with one arm and turn it into a 3-4 yd gain.

thats where a bit more power from the RB would help, but also it means the oline needs to hold that block just a split second longer.. as GO said.. if those runs were 4-5 yds then we would have had 3-5 less 3rd down tries, and less chances for the Offense to sputter out.

We has USF running in circles several times, but we would drop a catchable ball, get a penalty, hit the wrong hole, then make a bad pass.

30 first downs is still a ton and imagine if we had just a bit more athleticism on that side of the ball. if we had 2 guys who could get deep to stretch the field or just one power RB, or even 1 RB who could turn the corner a bit better.

Moe needs to be our Phillips replacement not our #2 back. thats a depth issue.

we had close to 250 both halves, dont know how we managed to score 3 points on 300 yds offense and not really punt.

We need running backs that look like running backs. 5'10" 220

 

[TheCusian]

I still wish we'd run Fredricks more than Moe.

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

I think the lack of yards per play has an exponential effect on the offense. Running up to the line and firing off a play is not an advantage when the defenders only had to move three yards. I think this is why on the drives that click, it really clicks. Big gains lead to more defensive scrambling, which lead to more big gains. All the third downs dont help either because it seems thats when they check plays (understandably so).

FHCDM used to refer to explosive plays (that's when our offense was truly putrid). We're getting some, but i imagine it'll be year two or three (i'm adding a year for the talent deficit) before the offense really starts hitting.

 

[SWC75]

I agree with everything you said in your first post but don't agree with this.

I will gladly make the trade for 5 extra offensive possessions for 4 opponent possessions that may start 30-40 yards closer to their end zone. I am not sure mathematically what the conversion % needs to be to win the probability but I am guessing 56% is more than good enough to come out ahead.

The differences in where drives started were important in this game and failing on 3 of 5 fourth down tries factored into that.

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

The differences in where drives started were important in this game and failing on 3 of 5 fourth down tries factored into that.

That's usually true. But the way the defense is playing at the moment, it is way too easy for the other team to tilt the field. I almost feel like field possession is inconsequential (kinda like the old days when the defense couldnt get off the field, even on3rd and long).

 

[007]

all math.

You get to a certain level of efficiency combined with the number of plays you run has a multiplier effect.

Through three games, #1 in plays run, # 10 in passing yards per game. Really, really good sign, #38 in third down conversions, that is huge.

Problem is #89 in yds per play, #92 in rushing yds per game, #111 in yds per carry, #85 in scoring offense, and my guess close to last in pts per play.

The lack of efficiency killed them because of a factor that some dismiss, field position. SU was starting inside the 15 more often than not and they would move the ball and stall out on the plus side of the field. Even going fast it's hard to close on 15 play drives, the odds catch up with you. Meanwhile USF had a series of short fields (which is the danger of going for it on 4th down) and that really hurt.

Right now the style of offense and the lack of efficiency is having an multiplier effect going the other way, it's killing the defense. Not with ToP, SU dominated last night and wore themselves out on offense, but in the number of possessions they have to defend.

I don't think the answer is abandon the run, they have to keep working it and get it a little better. 1/2 yd more per play, a yd more per carry, and the points will come.

As for the defense, all they really need to do is not give up so many home run plays.

It's three games in, relax.

Good post, Go.

Not sure how much of this is a "math" issue. But, I absolutely believe that the O will be highly productive...in time. And water is wet.

What concerns me currently, given that we are only 3 games in, is the SF was able to control the running game with only 5 in the box. They dared us to run inside all game while limiting the short passing game at the perimeter. This meant that we needed to go to the intermediate and long passing game and Dungey really struggled there. Some of that was line play, some drops. But a lot of Dungey, too.

That was why we were so inefficient, IMO.

 

[GoSU96]

Good post, Go.

Not sure how much of this is a "math" issue. But, I absolutely believe that the O will be highly productive...in time. And water is wet.

What concerns me currently, given that we are only 3 games in, is the SF was able to control the running game with only 5 in the box. They dared us to run inside all game while limiting the short passing game at the perimeter. This meant that we needed to go to the intermediate and long passing game and Dungey really struggled there. Some of that was line play, some drops. But a lot of Dungey, too.

That was why we were so inefficient, IMO.

If 66% and 350 is a bad game, I'll take it.

 

[qdawgg]

I thought it was interesting that they didn't give up a lot of long drives with a lot of plays. It was either an explosive play or a stop.

A couple the last few weeks were talented O players making plays - but if it really if communication and inexperience, that stuff will get better week to week. That's what I'm looking for.

And really really bad angles by our D. So many plays 2 - 4 players overcommitted, all together on the same play and the USF player just ran by everybody. That discipline can be corrected, in this type of defense players are even more responsible for not overcommitting and holding their assignment. Let's hope that aspect gets corrected.

 

[Millhouse]

all math.

You get to a certain level of efficiency combined with the number of plays you run has a multiplier effect.

Through three games, #1 in plays run, # 10 in passing yards per game. Really, really good sign, #38 in third down conversions, that is huge.

Problem is #89 in yds per play, #92 in rushing yds per game, #111 in yds per carry, #85 in scoring offense, and my guess close to last in pts per play.

The lack of efficiency killed them because of a factor that some dismiss, field position. SU was starting inside the 15 more often than not and they would move the ball and stall out on the plus side of the field. Even going fast it's hard to close on 15 play drives, the odds catch up with you. Meanwhile USF had a series of short fields (which is the danger of going for it on 4th down) and that really hurt.

Right now the style of offense and the lack of efficiency is having an multiplier effect going the other way, it's killing the defense. Not with ToP, SU dominated last night and wore themselves out on offense, but in the number of possessions they have to defend.

I don't think the answer is abandon the run, they have to keep working it and get it a little better. 1/2 yd more per play, a yd more per carry, and the points will come.

As for the defense, all they really need to do is not give up so many home run plays.

It's three games in, relax.

no more white knuckling. they will sell it to recruits. if it means the margin of defeat is worse against good teams, so be it. we have an identity and we're not going to be scared of failing.

let's just hope USF is awesome and this will pay off later this year. it's probably going to be 5-7 at best no matter what so get ready for next year and hopefully we blow the doors off some northeastern dinosaur school. that way they can tell every recruit "See? you don't want to go to those 1970s schools. we'll be competitive against the southern schools once we dominate the NE recruiting"

 

[007]

If 66% and 350 is a bad game, I'll take it.

Yeah, no doubt those are great numbers. No argument there. But, your point, i thought, was to the lack of offensive efficiency. IMO, that lack of efficiency and production (points) was due to the inability to hit enough intermediate and deep balls.

 

[upperdeck]

the big question that needs to be answered is why the offense cant score in the 2nd half. thats a 3 game trend. its not for lack of yards or chances. USF only scored twice in the 2nd half and both games we had multiple chances to get into the game and didnt get it done.. still the 3 TOs inside the 30. the dumb penalty by Estime behind the play, and the holding when we were inside the 30 stalled out 2 more drives when there was a ton of energy.

its not like USF went of and down the field the 2nd half. far less physical mistakes by the D yesterday, but the mental ones led to huge easy plays.

 

[upperdeck]

Yeah, no doubt those are great numbers. No argument there. But, your point, i thought, was to the lack of offensive efficiency. IMO, that lack of efficiency and production (points) was due to the inability to hit enough intermediate and deep balls.

Dungey some really nice throws. we dropped 2-3 key ones but so did USF. he also missed 4-5 that had good shots to be big plays, the one INT was a bad decision because it was so late, the other INT to Ish was late and to the wrong shoulder.

there were also a ton of guys wide open against what might be the 4-5 best D we see.

 

[TheCusian]

New system on offense = inefficiencies, penalties, and stalled drives

New system on defense= communication issues and missed assignments leading to big plays

Fixes to those things will likely play out over the season.

Edit: and against superior talent, it may not matter anyways.

 

[GoSU96]

Yeah, no doubt those are great numbers. No argument there. But, your point, i thought, was to the lack of offensive efficiency. IMO, that lack of efficiency and production (points) was due to the inability to hit enough intermediate and deep balls.

Run game first. Completely agree he could have been better.

 

[GoSU96]

the big question that needs to be answered is why the offense cant score in the 2nd half. thats a 3 game trend. its not for lack of yards or chances. USF only scored twice in the 2nd half and both games we had multiple chances to get into the game and didnt get it done.. still the 3 TOs inside the 30. the dumb penalty by Estime behind the play, and the holding when we were inside the 30 stalled out 2 more drives when there was a ton of energy.

its not like USF went of and down the field the 2nd half. far less physical mistakes by the D yesterday, but the mental ones led to huge easy plays.

Punt return and bailing on half the field on a 4th and 1.

 

[AZOrange]

A head scratcher of a game. Against Lville, we had over 400 yards of offense while FSU had less than 300 yards. We get over 500 yards this game and...no points to show for it. Im all in with that kind of production - points are coming.

You can't have that much offense and not score more points. I don't know when but the elements of success are there. On that first interception just saw the replay and Etta-Tawo was wide open and had the D beat but Dungey under throws it versus leading him to the end zone.

Secondly just watched some replays and our run blocking was much better this game. Seems like the Oline is picking up the right blocking assignments - yet not consistent yet either.

Goods points upperdeck...its just seems like our players are still learning. Although depressing losses are to me and all of us, the offense is getting better and the D seems its getting better too but too many mental mistakes and coverage breakdowns is still killing us.

The Tampa 2 works - North Dakota St just beat #13 Iowa. Nuff said.

We are not getting vertical enough with our offensive scheme. A lot of horizontal yards/plays. That will come with time and familiarity with system.

 

[upperdeck]

we need the oline to block a bit better and Dungey to trust them a bit more to get more vertical. we also need a 2nd guy who can get deep and thats what they really need to hit hard since we lose the one who can do it now.